The general election in Honduras on November 28 has ended, according to Taiwan's "Central News Agency" quoted Reuters on the 29th, the preliminary results of the Honduran National Election Commission showed that 40% of the votes have been issued, and the wife of former Honduran President Celaya and the 62-year-old "Liberal Reconstruction Party" candidate, Theomara Castro, received 53.5% of the votes; the right-wing ruling party "National Party" candidate Asfra got 34% of the votes. Theomara Castro has declared victory. She told supporters: "We won! We won! People do justice today. We reversed totalitarianism. ”
In the past two days, the Taiwan authorities have been in a state of agitation, and various Taiwan media have also been closely watching the election results in Honduras. You may have some questions about why a country that has rarely been heard of on the mainland before, and even many people do not know where Honduras is, has attracted the attention of the Taiwan authorities and people from all walks of life.
Honduras is a small Central American country, and its election will not be of concern to most mainlanders except for scholars of international politics and Taiwan. However, it is very different for Taiwan, which is one of the only remaining 15 "countries with diplomatic relations" in Taiwan, and if it loses one more, it will become 14, and it may also trigger a domino effect. Because after all, in the past few years, Taiwan's "countries with diplomatic relations" have already had a domino effect. In just over 5 years since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, Taiwan has lost 7 "countries with diplomatic relations." The seven "countries with diplomatic relations" are: Sao Tome and Principe, Panama, Dominica, Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Solomon Islands and Kiribati.
The reason why the Taiwan authorities and taiwanese media are paying attention to the Honduran general election is also because the Honduran opposition candidate, Theomara Castro, declared on September 5 that if he wins the election, he will seek to establish diplomatic relations with the Chinese mainland.
Honduras is a small, impoverished Central American country with a population of 9,450,700 (2020), an area of 112,500 square kilometers, and a PER capita GDP of $2,575 in 2020 (international exchange rate). Last year, the country's public debt exceeded $13 billion, or 55 percent of GDP, with a foreign debt line of $8.45 billion. This also means that Honduras has to repay its debt by more than 30 per cent of its national budget. However, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, Honduras' GDP fell by 9% in 2020, and the country's economy continued to weaken and has not yet recovered.
The results of cooperation between Honduras' neighbor, El Salvador, and China after the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2018 will have a profound impact on Honduras. At present, Honduran politicians and all sectors of society regard El Salvador as a model, believing that the establishment of diplomatic relations with China will also inject a booster into the reform and development of Honduras.
In the three years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Sisa, in 2020, the total trade between the two countries reached 1.11 billion US dollars, of which El Salvador exported 172 million US dollars to China, an increase of 51.6% year-on-year. Specialty products such as cane sugar and coffee have also gradually gained popularity in the Chinese market. During the COVID-19 pandemic, when there was a global shortage of vaccines, Chinese vaccines arrived in El Salvador to inject impetus into the epidemic prevention work in Sarva. El Salvadoran ambassador to China Alvarez said, "The first person willing to provide us with a vaccine is China." China's vaccine has been vaccinated throughout the country and has been well received by all sectors of society. The Chinese vaccine is safe and effective, and the people of El Salvador are very satisfied. ”
Honduras, a neighboring country, was in tight supply of vaccines at the time. In such a situation, if Honduras wants to develop its economy and improve people's livelihood, it needs to rely on external forces, and the establishment of diplomatic relations with China is undoubtedly the wisest choice.
At present, Castro, who may have won the Honduran election, wants to establish diplomatic relations with China, but there are still two major obstacles. One is that Taiwan will intensify its "financial aid" diplomacy, and the other is the interference of the United States.
According to reports, before the Honduran election, Nicholas, assistant secretary of state of the US State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, led a delegation to Visit Honduras and nakedly pressured the Hong and Hong candidates. Afterwards, a U.S. State Department official declared: "We have made it clear to all the major [presidential] participants in Honduras why we consider relations between Taiwan and Honduras to be very important." "We want to see that (the "Taiwan-Hong Kong relationship") continue." We have told the two main candidates directly. ”
After the Honduran election, it is still worth paying attention to whether the victorious Castro will establish diplomatic relations with the Chinese mainland as mentioned before. However, one thing is certain: The future international space of the Taiwan authorities who blindly seek "Taiwan independence" is bound to become narrower and narrower, Taiwan independence will inevitably be a dead end, the trick of gold-dollar diplomacy will be spurned, and China's economic achievements and the "Belt and Road" will inevitably bring good opportunities for development to friendly countries.
We hope that the leaders of Honduras will recognize the general trend and abandon the dark and turn to the light!