Time flies so fast, and there's enough time to say goodbye! Heck, it's not over yet, although this year is only more than 30 days left, I feel that time really doesn't seem to pass so fast, but the truth is so, the National Day is over, the winter solstice is ready to come, how many goals have we not achieved?
Many people's goals at the beginning of the year are to buy a house, buy a car, get off a single, and have a deposit, and the result seems that none of them have been achieved. Many people have stood up and said that they originally planned to buy a house this year, but due to the instability of the market, let's take a look.
1. On November 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the data on the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large cities in October, 52 cities where the price of new houses fell in 70 cities, and 64 cities where second-hand houses fell. Both the sales price and the sales area have declined to varying degrees, with a transaction area of 12,709 square meters in October, a transaction amount of 12,391 yuan, and a transaction unit price of only 9749 yuan, which is 8 yuan less than the 9757 yuan in September, and this price has fallen back to the average house price level between 2019 and 2020.
2, the land auction rate has repeatedly reached a new high, in the process of the second centralized gas supply, the overall soil auction results are not ideal, the land auction rate is as high as 32.4%, Beijing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and other places have appeared for two years, the streaming rate is even more than 50%.
In the process of this soil auction, the overall premium rate has dropped sharply, basically controlled within 15%, which is a huge difference from the first soil auction this year. The results of the land auction are not ideal, and the land transfer fee will definitely decline sharply, with a year-on-year decline of 36.6% in the third quarter.
We clearly know that the price of bread is determined by flour, and the price of flour cannot be raised, does this mean that the price of bread is about to usher in an inflection point? The answer seems to be true.
3, the regulation of the policy, this year the property market regulation and control policy continues to deepen, according to the data of the Zhongyuan Research Institute, as of the middle of October the number of property market regulations has exceeded 500 times, you see the history of real estate development, it seems that there is no year so many policies this year, and these policies are not as usual as in the past to achieve the cooling effect on the relaxation, is the continuous pressure.
The three red lines are mainly aimed at the debt ratio, cash flow and short-term debt ratio of real estate enterprises;
The two red lines are mainly aimed at the upper limit of the proportion of loans to housing enterprises and individuals by banks, focusing on cracking down on illegal funds in real estate;
The reference guide price of the second-hand house has played a heavy blow to the illegal operation in the market, and in addition, under the policy of restricting purchases, restricting sales, restricting loans, etc., the power generated is even greater than expected.
4, inventory is rising rapidly
According to the data of E-House Research Institute at the end of the third quarter, the listed price of second-hand houses in 60 cities in the country reached 3.2 million sets, the inventory of second-hand houses in Chongqing, Tianjin and Shenyang has exceeded 150,000 sets, the inventory of Chengdu and Nanjing has also exceeded 120,000 sets of Hefei, Wuhan and other cities have broken through the 100,000 mark, followed by Dalian, Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Zhongshan, Foshan and other cities. According to the data, the inventory cycle last year has been extended to 17.9 months, and as the market cools, the destocking cycle will be further expanded.
2021 national hundred cities of new commercial housing inventory data show that the current domestic commercial housing inventory reached 580 million square meters, the generalized inventory of 3.77 billion square meters, assuming a house of 100 square meters, the next two years will have more than 43 million houses listed for sale, 2018 to 2020, the average annual sales of real estate area of about 1.7 billion square meters, that is, even if you do not build a house now, it will take two and a half years to digest these properties.
5. Major real estate companies have chosen to reduce prices and sell
According to the Kerry Research Center, 90% of the sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in September fell year-on-year, and 60% of the sales performance of housing enterprises fell by 30% year-on-year, and the discount sales of the property market have become a common phenomenon, and even the real estate tycoons have also given a certain reference direction.
On August 30, Zhu Jiusheng, chairman and CEO of Vanke, said: Don't put hope on the policy is obviously unrealistic, with the current real estate market environment to watch, leaving little space for developers to operate; Shimao Group's 2021 interim results conference, Shimao Group President Xu Shitan said: In the second half of the year, the dynamic monitoring of house prices will increase price concessions, reflecting from the side that house prices will fall; on August 30, Sun Hongbin of Sunac Group said bluntly that the property market in the second half of the year was more tragic. Sales will also undergo a sharp decline, the amount of loans will continue to rise, not only that, but also directly predicted that the market pressure in the second half of the year is greater, many housing companies will choose to reduce prices to withdraw funds, one of which has attracted everyone's attention " In the future, any real estate developer may be thunderstorm because of capital rupture"
From August to now, 21 cities have issued restriction orders, including Heze, Yueyang, Kunming, Tangshan, Shenyang, Jiangyin, Ezhou, Zhangjiakou, Nantong, Zhuzhou, Harbin, Guilin, Huizhou, Huzhou, Xuzhou, Anqing, Yangzhou, Xiangyang, etc., and the price reduction range is controlled within 15%. Simply put, house prices are not not allowed to fall, but there can be no large fluctuations during this period, some people say why the house price increase of 15% can be, that is the past thing, now basically the increase in house prices are controlled within 5%.
Limit the rise in house prices, house prices may not rise, limit the decline in house prices, house prices may not fall, developers in order to withdraw funds in the end how much to fight, Huizhou a real estate although restricting the sale of house prices of 90% discount, still play tricks, such as gift parking spaces, gift fine decoration, gift property management fees, gifts of furniture appliances, return of the down payment, is equivalent to disguised price reduction A real estate in Shenyang has appeared a large and will be the original 11,000 yuan of special price house 8,000 yuan, a square meter of Kunming a real estate originally 16,000 yuan, now the special price of the house 10,000 yuan per square meter. As long as you want to reduce the price, of course, there is a way to reduce the price.
Many people have asked 2021 only 40 days left, 2022 will not usher in the "price reduction tide" imagination is always so beautiful, the fact is so cruel, although the house price can fall, but not as everyone expected to imagine the decline so large, and on September 15, the central media economic daily released "Beware of the ups and downs of the property market" clearly pointed out that promoting the healthy and stable development of the real estate market is the main tone, whether the real estate rises or falls is not a stable market, Therefore, in the future, the entire real estate is mainly adhering to the direction of "stable house prices, stable land prices, and stable expectations" for development.
At present, all the policies introduced are not for the purpose of "reducing house prices" more for the direction of "stabilizing house prices", of course, it is not excluded that some cities that are weak in the original urban development process or cities where house prices are already in high, house prices are not not allowed to fall, but to gradually and orderly decline.
Now the entire real estate market is showing a "weak", but the real estate will gradually pick up the state, at present Harbin has introduced a "rescue" to reduce the pre-sale standards, to give buyers a certain subsidy; Guangzhou Foshan in early October has begun to reduce the real estate loan interest rate, the highest 40 bp, in the overall lending time, with a substantial reduction, further return to the normal state; in order to promote the growth of second-hand housing to reduce personal income tax, Huizhou, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Zhaoqing, Yangjiang. And many other cities originally paid 2% of personal income tax, now reduced to 1%.
House prices or beyond imagination, in the next 5 years we should not put high hopes on house prices, because he wants to stabilize this line safely and steadily, what do you think about the development direction of house prices?