There is room for memory prices to fall

Issue 1211

There is room for memory prices to fall

Text | Li Pengge is responsible for editing | Wang Ye

The cover page executes the | Wang Ye planned | Liu Keli Proofreading | Liu Fangzuo

Some experts believe that the current DDR5 memory price is inflated, and speculate that in the first half of next year, the memory price will have a 15% decline space, and the reasons for the current decline in memory prices are as follows:

There is room for memory prices to fall for a reason

There are four reasons why memory prices can fall:

First, from the current inventory situation, the memory has been in a state of hoarding, and the energy of this currency is released at present, and it will be in a state of oversupply;

Second, affected by the epidemic, the DIY market has obviously shown a downward trend in demand;

Third, in order to increase the price of new products, the memory capacity used by the whole machine manufacturer is constantly increasing, and the price of the previous generation of memory will definitely decline;

Fourth, user demand, in the choice of computers, mobile phone upgrades when the memory capacity continues to double and increase, whether it is mobile phones or computers with the standard memory of the amount of water rising with the rising ... It keeps going up; so the price of small capacities of memory will definitely go down.

Destocking in the fourth quarter caused memory prices to decline

It must be emphasized that de-memory inventory will be the main trend in the fourth quarter. Due to the home-at-home economy brought about by the epidemic last year, PC and mobile phone manufacturers are optimistic that the procurement of memory this year has continued to increase in the past year, but this year's increase has not been as expected, and there has been a destocking trend in the fourth quarter, resulting in a downward trend in PC and server memory prices. After many rounds of new product launches in the field of smart phones, the double eleven also began to be shipped centrally.

Experts expect the price of graphics DRAM to also fall by 0-5% in the fourth quarter.

Memory prices rebound after 8 months

Although it is incompatible with the general environment of chip shortage, the first half of next year is indeed the best time to buy memory. In the first half of next year, the outside world predicts that the average unit price of memory will decrease by 15% per year, and the price decline is more obvious in the first half of the year.

Some experts believe that there will be a possibility of flat or price increases in the second half of next year. Due to the large number of uncontrollable factors, the supply and demand relationship may change next year, so the first quarter is the best time to buy. Previous predictions have pointed out that DDR5 memory will initially be about 50-60% more expensive than DDR4, which is one of the important reasons why memory prices will rebound after 8 months. It takes about two years to get down to normal levels.

DDR5 memory prices have doubled

But the current situation has completely exceeded expectations, and the price of DDR5 memory has doubled that of the previous generation. This is also one of the factors that prices could fall sharply. Major memory manufacturers such as Samsung have not increased, and memory capacity is another determinant, resulting in a 20% increase in memory prices and high single-digit growth in flash memory prices.

Written in the back: In the past year, the memory price received the impact of various factors reached a record high, after the dividends of the channel market were divided, the cold winter of the storage market came, and the quotation in the case of basically stable upstream and downstream supply gradually approached the "bottom line" of the manufacturer, but there is still room for decline, as a user, you can buy and buy at the end of the year to upgrade your machine.