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The probability of Zhang Jiao's success is only 25%, but it can be huge, and it is likely that He Jin did the innings

author:Reed says history
The heavens are dead, the yellow sky is standing, the age is in the nails, and the world is auspicious
The probability of Zhang Jiao's success is only 25%, but it can be huge, and it is likely that He Jin did the innings

At the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, julu County lived with three brothers, the eldest named Zhang Jiao, the second called Zhang Bao, and the third elder named Zhang Liang. The boss Zhang Jiao is a talent who is not the first talent, and he himself knows some medical skills, so he often goes up to the mountain to collect medicine. Once, Zhang Jiao was collecting medicine in a big mountain and met a blue-eyed and childlike old man with a quinoa stick in his hand.

He summoned Zhang Jiao to a cave, then gave Zhang Jiao three volumes of the Book of Heaven, and told Zhang Jiao that the book was called the Taiping Technique. The old man warned Zhang Jiao to study the book well, and then publicized and popularized it for the heavens to save the world; if Zhang Jiao got this book and had different intentions, he would be badly punished. The old man told him that he was an old immortal of Nanhua, and when he finished, he turned into a breeze and drifted away.

The Nanhua Laoxian who appears here gives the Book of Heaven to Zhang Jiao, asking him to contribute to the country and benefit the people (the title of the book is called "Taiping Technique"). The Nanhua Old Immortal and the Heavenly Book are both legendary gods and immortals with magical powers, perhaps compiled by Zhang Jiao in order to call on the people to rebel with him!

The probability of Zhang Jiao's success is only 25%, but it can be huge, and it is likely that He Jin did the innings

Zhang Jiao with more and more believers, and learned about the situation of uprisings in other regions several times, but also perfectly formulated their own uprising plan, because at this time the Eastern Han regime experienced several short-lived and young emperors, so that the power was sidelined, foreign relatives and eunuchs were seriously powerful, and vigorously plundered the people's fat and people's anointing, and successive years of drought, flood, locust plague and other natural disasters followed, the imperial court did not care about the people's life and death, but also let people's complaints reach the peak, so Zhang Jiao saw the turmoil of the Eastern Han regime, began to have the idea of being king, So he led the believers in preparing for the uprising.

The betrayal of the traitors made the uprising of the Yellow Turban Army not smooth, and could only revolt in a hurry, and it was such a slogan that Zhang Jiao took "The sky is dead, the yellow sky should stand", which just met the wishes of the people and began to attack the Eastern Han regime, and more than 100,000 Yellow Turban troops rose up in response, so that the Eastern Han regime opened the era of division of the masses.

The probability of Zhang Jiao's success is only 25%, but it can be huge, and it is likely that He Jin did the innings

In this game between He Jin and Zhang Jiao, Zhang Jiao is dominant, that is, there are many people, and in addition, there seems to be no other advantage. Moreover, there are obvious loopholes in the layout stage of the opening of the angle as a leader:

1. Secretly send money and make friends with eunuchs for internal response.

2. Before the rebellion, he sent his disciple Tang Zhou to report to the eunuch.

There are at least the following variables:

1. Tang Zhou may go to report the letter, or he may go to the whistleblower, two choices.

2. Eunuchs may or may not support, two choices.

The probability of Zhang Jiao's success is only 25%, but it can be huge, and it is likely that He Jin did the innings

To succeed in this matter, Tang Zhou first chose not to inform, and after the eunuch received the letter, he chose to support it. Therefore, the probability of success is only 25% at most. Miscalculated. Zhang Jiao sent money to the eunuch, if it was just for the sake of preaching, it should be effective, and the eunuch helped this favor.

If it is for the sake of rebellion, it is difficult to say, once the emperor falls, the eunuch has no power.

Of course, all of the above is probabilistic reasoning. Personally, I think that the reason why the so-called Yellow Turban Uprising can be so powerful is that it is most likely he Jin's bureau!

Zhang Jiao's activities had in fact been under the control of the Han Dynasty, and when Zhang Jiao was promoting his "Taiping Dao" in Luoyang, Yang Ci, who was then Situ, was already vigilant and offered a plan to eliminate the scourge. And Zhang Jiao has spent many years laying out such a big situation, it is absolutely impossible for Yang Ci alone to be alert.

The probability of Zhang Jiao's success is only 25%, but it can be huge, and it is likely that He Jin did the innings

Why not denounce it? I think it is nothing more than that the eunuch's relatives want to use their horns in exchange for greater rights. Otherwise, if the uprising spread across the eight prefectures, why would only the capital have failed before it even began? In fact, everyone knows that since dou wumou failed to attack eunuchs, the eastern Han Dynasty controlled by eunuchs no longer established the post of general. Even if He Jin's sister became empress, he was no more than Henan Yin. The immediate family members of the empresses of the Eastern Han Dynasty all had people who served as great generals, and the appointment of the great general was almost simultaneously with the empress.

Only He Jin waited for four years before he was appointed as a great general after the uprising broke out. And Luoyang's Yellow Turban was also nipped in the bud by him, which had to make people wonder if this was a bureau made by He Jin.

Finally, from the perspective of the Yellow Turban Army itself, the Yellow Turban Army is a group of untrained, unorganized and disciplined rebels, and they lack intellectuals, and their own limitations are too great, and they are doomed to failure. From the perspective of the Han army, the Han Dynasty was founded for 400 years, and there were many soldiers loyal to the Han Dynasty, and under the joint efforts of the imperial court and the Hao clan, the Yellow Turban Army had no choice but to do anything, even if Zhang Jiao was alive, he could only tie his hands.

The probability of Zhang Jiao's success is only 25%, but it can be huge, and it is likely that He Jin did the innings

Historical development has its laws, not subject to the will of man, whoever can use it can win, and vice versa will fail.

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