On October 27, the 2021 Hurun Rich List was released.
Zhong Sui, founder of Nongfu Spring, Zhang Yiming of ByteDance, and Zeng Yuqun of Ningde Times ranked in the top 3 of the list.
Further down, the headline jun actually found that the top ten real estate developers in the list were shortlisted.
Thirty years of Hedong, thirty years of Hexi, the main direction of the real estate industry, has changed.
part.01
None of the real estate developers were shortlisted in the top ten of the Hurun Rich List
Directly look at a list of the top ten of the Hurun Rich List ↓↓
Compared with the 2020 list, the top three highs have changed from Ma Yun, Ma Huateng and Zhong Shui to Zhong Shui, Zhang Yiming and Zeng Yuqun.
The richest man became a medicine man.
Among the other listed entrepreneurs, there are Wei Jianjun and Han Xuejuan of Great Wall Motors, who have risen by 89 places by leaps and bounds, and SF Wang Wei, who has slightly dropped 6 places.
But that's not the biggest change in the leaderboards.
▲2021 Hurun Top Ten Richest People (Source: Hurun Report)
In the top ten of the list, no entrepreneur in the real estate industry has been shortlisted in the top ten.
For the first time in more than 20 years.
part.02
Change ≠ decline
This change is actually quite sudden.
In 2020 alone, there are two real estate entrepreneurs in the top ten list, namely Xu Jiayin of Evergrande, ranking top 5; Yang Huiyan of Country Garden, who is listed in the top 6 with He Xiangjian of the United States.
Looking back at 2017, in the top five of the Hurun Hundred, real estate entrepreneurs accounted for 3!
▲2017 Hurun Top Five Richest People (Source: Hurun Report)
For example, Xu Jiayin, who was once a rich man, was also among the top 3 and top 5 of the list in 2019 and 2020.
And in this extraordinary 2021, Lao Xu's Evergrande can be described as embattled, and the rich identity has suddenly fallen to the altar, and the ranking has slipped from the first five to no.70.
In fact, such a phenomenon does not only happen to the head of the real estate entrepreneurs.
It is reported that in 2019, the real estate rich accounted for 14.9% of the list; and in 2021, this data has fallen to 9.4%.
▲Evergrande Group Xu Jiayin (Source: Network)
In the past 20 years, real estate has ushered in a period of rapid development.
"Standing on the outlet, pigs can take off", the outlet of those years is to engage in real estate.
Countless people have witnessed this performance of real estate taking off at the cusp.
Real estate entrepreneurs have frequently appeared in the major rich list since the beginning, and it can also be seen from the side that real estate has made money in the past 20 years.
Nowadays, the real estate rich are no longer as brilliant as in the past, and the property market is "getting cooler and cooler" in the eyes of everyone.
But in the eyes of the headliner, this is not a good signal - the regulation and control of the policy is stable and powerful, and a healthy, stable and beneficial property market is coming to us.
part.03
Thirty years east of the river, thirty years west of the river
The era of real estate wealth has passed.
In the 2021 Hurun Rich List, although the real estate industry is still one of the top five industries in terms of the number of people on the list and the total wealth, it has dropped significantly compared with manufacturing, health, chemical industry, and financial investment.
The reason for this is nothing more than the trend of the times.
Previously, the reform of housing commodification coupled with the rapid expansion of the city, the soaring demand + policy support, the real estate industry dividends continued, experienced two decades of rapid wealth growth.
▲Night view of Shenzhen (Source: Network)
Nowadays, the deepening of urban development has become the key for more people to "stay and afford", and the policy has increasingly emphasized "housing and not speculation", curbing the demand for speculation, and returning to the residential standard of the industry.
Especially in the past two years, high-pressure policies have been issued and implemented, and the housing enterprises that were originally walking on the high leverage, high debt, and high turnover track have to brake sharply and compress profit margins on their own in order to survive.
For example, the "three red lines" of housing enterprises and the "two red lines" policy of bank real estate loans have been continuously strengthened, and the lifeblood of housing enterprises has been suppressed from the financial end.
There is also the newly released "real estate tax" pilot, which also makes speculators dare not act rashly, and housing enterprises have lost a group of customers with strong purchasing power.
▲Real estate loan concentration management requirements
Of course, the ranking of the real estate industry list has changed, in addition to its own reasons, the rise and catch-up of other industries are also the focus.
One is manufacturing and the other is the new energy industry.
Manufacturing accounted for 27% of the total list, and total wealth accounted for 24% of the total list, an increase of 3 percentage points and 5 percentage points respectively over last year.
Among the top ten richest people, the new energy industry occupies two seats, namely Zeng Yuqun of the Ningde Era, who ranked third, Wei Jianjun of Great Wall Motors, and Han Xuejuan, who ranked 7th.
▲New energy vehicles (Source: Network)
Affected by policies and demand, the rise and fall of the industry is normal.
For example, the Internet industry restricted by the Anti-Monopoly Law, the education industry affected by the double reduction policy, etc.
Some people believe that the current policy will eliminate some housing enterprises "at the end", leaving behind larger and more popular housing enterprises in the market, which is another kind of clean market chaos.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, what other real estate companies have a steady pace and strong performance?
part.04
Which housing companies are performing more steadily?
Affected by the market, real estate developed by housing enterprises with good financial status and steady pace has become the preferred target for home buyers.
The most intuitive criterion for judging is the situation of housing enterprises downgrading and stepping on the line.
Recently, the Middle Finger Research Institute released the performance of the three red lines of the sample housing enterprises in the first half of this year.
The data shows that among the 146 typical listed housing enterprises in the first half of the year, 17 were red-file enterprises and 44 were green-file enterprises.
Compared with the end of last year, there were 4 fewer red-file enterprises, 1 more green-file enterprises, and 3 more orange-file enterprises.
Advancing to the second half of the year, the difficulty of downgrading housing enterprises has increased, and buyers have chosen housing enterprises within the safety line, and the delivery of housing is more secure.
▲The performance of the three red lines of the sample housing enterprises in the first half of this year (Source: Middle Finger Research Institute)
▲The assets and liabilities of major housing enterprises
The current market also shows a clear tendency to differentiation, and the head housing enterprises are "strong and strong".
In the "Top 100 Sales of Chinese Real Estate Enterprises from January to October 2021" released by Kerui, it can be seen that the sales volume of the top 30 housing enterprises has maintained steady growth, while most of the others have been flat or slightly declined.
The threshold for the sales amount of the top 10 leading enterprises reached 228.8 billion yuan, an increase of 25.3% year-on-year, and the top20 and top30 also increased by 23.5% and 11.3% year-on-year.
▲Top 10 of the trading list from January to October this year (Source: Kerui)
▲Top 10 sales list from January to October this year (Source: Kerui)
Many of these real estate companies have entered the Nanning market, and some of them have performed steadily, such as Poly and Vanke.
State-owned enterprises such as C&D, Beitou Real Estate, Dadu Investment, Weining and China Resources Land also performed well.
The concentration of head housing enterprises remains high.
The top 5 housing enterprises in Nanning occupy nearly 1/4 of the market share, and the top 20 housing enterprises occupy nearly 60% of the market share.
▲Market concentration (Source: Kerui)
In this case, the living space of small and medium-sized housing enterprises is limited, the ability to face risks is also smaller, and it is more rational to choose stable housing enterprises to get on the car.
▌ Write at the end
Real estate rich people once occupied half of the Chinese rich, but now for the first time they are absent from the top ten of the Hurun Rich List, which is really a fate.
Nowadays, new industries and business models are changing the pattern of the list, and the development momentum of manufacturing and new energy industries is rapid.
In next year's list, whether the real estate industry can stand out and squeeze into the top ten again, we do not know.
What can be known is that the future real estate market will embark on a steady and healthy development track.
The information gap between home buyers and developers is narrowing, buyers have a greater initiative in buying a house, and housing companies will also focus on improving product quality and winning market recognition.
The author | Xu Yijun and Xie Jinling
Audit | Wu Xiaoyuan
Editor| Liu Yuchan
(Source: Nanning property market headlines)