金價創新高、黃金期現貨飙升……黃金闆塊或将迎來高光時刻

12月4日早盤，黃金闆塊大幅高開，截至發稿，蘇豪弘業漲停，四川黃金、濟南高新、曼卡龍等5股漲超6%，玉龍股份、山東黃金等漲幅居前。

黃金期現貨價格均創新高

12月4日早盤，COMEX黃金期貨一度站上2150美元/盎司關口，重新整理曆史新高；現貨黃金短線再度飙升，漲至2144美元/盎司，重新整理今年5月創下的曆史高位。

當地時間12月1日，紐約商品交易所2月交割的黃金期貨價格上漲1.6%，收報于每盎司2089.70美元，創曆史新高，并形成“黃金交叉”，意味着未來還有進一步上漲空間。市場觀點認為，國際地緣局勢及市場對美聯儲明年降息的押注助推金價走高。

美聯儲主席鮑威爾周五在講話中表示，讨論降息還“為時過早”，并表示可能會進一步加息。鮑威爾稱，目前通脹水準仍遠高于美聯儲目标。在過去六個月中，核心通脹年增長率為2.5%。盡管過去幾個月較低的通脹資料受到歡迎，但必須繼續執行緊縮政策以達到2%的目标水準。

不過市場普遍将鮑威爾講話視為鴿派陣營，并認為美聯儲至少已經完成加息。鮑威爾表示，政策“已進入限制性領域”，在通脹采取過多或過少措施之間已接近平衡。

機構看好後市投資機會

國泰君安認為，美國三季度經濟的高增長大機率不可持續，四季度經濟将再次放緩，随後降息交易将更為順暢，直接利好黃金的配置機會。

光大證券指出，長周期看，金價與黃金股走勢相關性依然很強，該行認為金價和黃金股将在2024年上半年迎來一波上漲。該行認為2024年美國經濟增速放緩為大機率事件，2024年将迎來美國降息和美元走弱，利好金價和黃金股上行，看好金價續創新高，建議配置黃金闆塊。

中信建投表示，往後看，美國經濟降速的資料會給金價帶來更大的彈性，從美聯儲的加息走到降息的過程，名義利率驅動實際利率下行，會給黃金持續提供動能。

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