突发跳水，原因何在？赚超6900亿，股神巴菲特最新操作曝光！

GUIDE

摘要

1、今天，上证指数跳水回调，重磅会议利好下，工业母机板块大涨7.39%，机器人、汽车等板块涨幅居前，银行、煤炭等高股息板块下跌。

2、八连阳后，A股还能继续反弹吗？上涨空间还有多大？

3、2月24日，巴菲特旗下公司伯克希尔哈撒韦公司发布2023财年年报，全年净利润962.23亿美元，约合人民币6900亿元，最新操作曝光！

真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话

--这是第1085篇白话财经--

在连续八连阳后，A股迎来了调整，沪指午后跳水，可惜没能炼成“九阳神功”啊！

（图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2024/2/26，不作投资推荐）

盘面上，工业母机、机器人板块大涨，而银行、煤炭等高股息板块遭遇回调制约了指数表现。

热门指数涨跌幅方面，半导体上涨0.67%，中证医疗上涨0.43%，CS新能车上涨0.23%，光伏产业下跌0.73%，中证白酒下跌1.21%。（数据来源：东方财富Choice数据，统计截至2024/2/26，不作投资推荐）

01

A股跳水，反弹行情还能持续吗？

今天，A股午后跳水，上证指数跌幅接近1%，失守3000点。不过依然有超3600只个股上涨。

（图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2024/2/26，不作投资推荐）

消息面上，中央财经委员会第四次会议召开，研究大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新问题，研究有效降低全社会物流成本问题，此次以旧换新的范围不仅仅包括汽车、家电等传统消费品，还包括机床、锅炉、油漆设备等各类生产设备。

利好作用下，工业母机、机器人、汽车等板块涨幅居前，小盘股表现突出。

（图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2024/2/26，不作投资推荐）

而跳水下跌的主要原因还是高股息资产的退潮，银行、保险、煤炭等年内涨幅居前的板块今天跌幅居前。

那么高股息资产还能配置吗？

从拥挤度来看，去年四季度公募对红利资产的配置环比提升，红利资产整体配置系数升至82%历史分位数。

（图片来源：华泰证券研究所《A股策略：关注“类红利”思路的扩散》，发布时间：2024/2/26，不作投资推荐）

从行业上来看，华泰证券研报数据显示，“除银行仓位拥挤度较低、钢铁和公用事业交易拥挤度较低外，传统红利行业拥挤度或已运行至高位区间。”

华泰证券的研报认为，“当前红利行情或仍有一定持续性，行情的系统性切换需要观察到国内信用周期趋势回升或海外流动性周期转向宽松，但当前拥挤度或已运行至高位区间。当前处于数据和政策真空期，国内基本面波浪式复苏的基调未发生根本性变化，市场风险偏好的回升大概率不是一蹴而就，M1M2同比剪刀差和剩余流动性趋势待观察，在缺乏其它主线的情况下红利行情仍有一定持续性。考虑到拥挤度较高，对基于中长期逻辑看好红利资产的投资者来说，相关板块拥挤度回落后可能是更好的增配时点。”

那么对于A股而言，反弹还会延续吗？

从此前上涨的逻辑来看，主要是消息面、流动性、基本面共同作用。吴清接任证监会主席并在节后两天主持召开十余场座谈会、央行降息25BP、证监会表态将更加聚焦严把 IPO 准入关等消息利好下，市场风险偏好有所提升。

对于反弹能持续的时间，华创证券研报根据历史数据指出，“

本轮仍有空间，市场底部第一波反弹幅度均值24%、 持续49交易日，本轮反弹14%、8交易日。

”

“历史上底部后的市场的反弹不会一蹴而就，第一波反弹后往往仍需经历盘整稳固，行稳方能致远。

从2008、

13、16、19、20、22年历次市场底部区

间后的第一波反弹来看，上证指数涨幅20-30%、均值24%，一般持续30-70交易日、均值49，期间全A等权涨幅略高，均值可达27%。

如果将2/5以来的市场上行定义为市场阶段性触底后第一波反弹，截止2/23上证指数涨幅14%、全A等权指数涨幅23%，持续时间仅8个交易日，距离历史第一波反弹均值水平仍有空间。”

（图片来源：华创证券研究所《重返3000点的行业比较——策略周聚焦》，发布时间：2024/2/25，不作投资推荐）

总之，无论是牛市的上涨还是底部的反弹，往往都不是一蹴而就的，有时候适时的休息是为了走得更远。

02

巴菲特最新操作曝光！

北京时间2月24日晚，巴菲特旗下公司伯克希尔哈撒韦公司发布2023财年年报，以及巴菲特的年度股东信。“股神”巴菲特2023年的盈利和操作浮出水面。

根据报告，伯克希尔哈撒韦去年四季度净利润375.74亿美元，上年同期盈利180.80亿美元；2023年全年净利润962.23亿美元，约合人民币6900亿元，市场预期盈利408.21亿美元，上年同期净亏损228.19亿美元。

长期来看，在1965—2023年，伯克希尔·哈撒韦每股市值的复合年增长率为19.8%，明显超过标普500指数的10.2%，而1964—2023年伯克希尔·哈撒韦的市值增长率是令人吃惊的4384748%，也就是43847倍多，而标普500指数为31223%，即超过312倍。

（图片来源：伯克希尔官网，截至2023/12/31，不作投资推荐）

从持仓来看，伯克希尔公司前五大持仓股票为美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙。这五家公司就占了公司持股的79%。在四季度，巴菲特对第一大重仓股苹果进行了减持，但最新的持仓占比依然有50%，同时，巴菲特增持了雪佛龙和西方石油。

（数据来源：伯克希尔官网，截至2023/12/31，不作投资推荐）

巴菲特向来对偏爱的股票都会长期持有。在股东信里，巴菲特也提到了持有数十年的可口可乐和美国运通。

在巴菲特看来，这两家公司不像苹果的持仓那么大，每只股票只占伯克希尔公司公认会计准则净值的4%—5%，但他们是有价值的资产。

巴菲特说，“当你发现真正出色的企业时，请坚持投资下去。耐心总是有回报的，选择一个出色的企业可以对冲掉许多不可避免的糟糕决策。”

和可口可乐和美国运通公司一样，巴菲特预计伯克希尔将无限期保持对日本五大商社和西方石油的投资。

对日本商社的投资也让巴菲特赚了不少，巴菲特透露伯克希尔持有这5家日本商社公司约9%的股份。从2019年7月开始投资日本股票，伯克希尔对这5家公司的投资成本约为1.6万亿日元，到2023年末这些公司的持仓价值为2.9万亿日元。不过由于日元汇率走软，伯克希尔的未实现美元收益率为61%（80亿美元）。

巴菲特认为，“现在的市场比我年轻时更像赌场，赌场现在存在于许多家庭中，每天都在诱惑着居民。伯克希尔的一条投资规则从未改变：永远不冒资本永久性损失的风险。”

对于大家关注的接班人，巴菲特也有提及，强调了副董事长格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）在各方面都做好了担任伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司CEO的准备。并且今年伯克希尔股东大会将于奥马哈当地时间5月4日举行。

其实巴菲特一直告诉我们的两点保住本金、长期投资，看似简单，真的能做到的人很少，成功的投资或许不是短期能够赚多么多，也并不一定是每次都能做出正确的决策，而是在更长的时间里，看清并规避风险，做好能力圈范围的投资，并且坚持下去。

03 

宗庆后10条智慧语录

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#4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: #000;--weui-FG-HALF: #000;--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .6);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .42);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #dc3636;--weui-ORANGERED: #d14730;--weui-ORANGE: #e17719;--weui-YELLOW: #bb8e00;--weui-GREEN: #4f8400;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #2e8800;--weui-BRAND: #018942;--weui-BLUE: #007dbb;--weui-INDIGO: #0075e2;--weui-PURPLE: #6265f1;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #e17719;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(225, 119, 25, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #007dbb;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(0, 125, 187, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: 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rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}