Sudden dive, what is the reason? Earn more than 690 billion, the latest operation of Warren Buffett is exposed!

GUIDE

summary

1. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index dived and pulled back, and under the favorable blockbuster meeting, the industrial machine tool sector rose 7.39%, the robots, automobiles and other sectors rose first, and the high-dividend sectors such as banks and coal fell.

2. Can A-shares continue to rebound after eight consecutive yangs, and how much room for upside is there?

3. On February 24, Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, released its 2023 fiscal year annual report, with an annual net profit of 96.223 billion US dollars, or about 690 billion yuan.

The truth is vernacular, and financial management is not against your heart

--This is the 1085th vernacular finance--

After eight consecutive consecutive yangs, A-shares ushered in an adjustment, and the Shanghai Index dived in the afternoon, but unfortunately failed to refine the "Jiuyang Miracle"!

(Image source: Oriental Fortune APP, statistics as of 2024/2/26, no investment recommendation)

On the disk, the industrial machine tool and robot sectors rose sharply, while the high-dividend sectors such as banks and coal suffered a pullback, which restricted the performance of the index.

In terms of the rise and fall of popular indexes, semiconductors rose 0.67%, CSI Medical rose 0.43%, CS New Energy Vehicle rose 0.23%, photovoltaic industry fell 0.73%, and CSI liquor fell 1.21%. (Data source: Oriental Wealth Choice data, statistics as of 2024/2/26, no investment recommendation)

01

A-share diving, can the rebound continue?

Today, A-shares dived in the afternoon, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 1%, falling below 3,000 points. However, there are still more than 3,600 stocks that rose.

(Image source: Oriental Fortune APP, statistics as of 2024/2/26, no investment recommendation)

On the news side, the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission was held to study the issue of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, and to study the problem of effectively reducing the logistics cost of the whole society.

Under the positive effect, industrial machine tools, robots, automobiles and other sectors were among the top gainers, and small-cap stocks performed outstandingly.

(Image source: Oriental Fortune APP, statistics as of 2024/2/26, no investment recommendation)

The main reason for the decline is the ebb and flow of high-dividend assets, and the banking, insurance, coal and other sectors that have fallen in the past few years are among the top today.

So can high-dividend assets still be allocated?

From the perspective of congestion, the allocation of dividend assets in the fourth quarter of last year increased quarter-on-quarter, and the overall allocation coefficient of dividend assets rose to 82% of the historical quantile.

(Image source: Huatai Securities Research Institute, "A-share Strategy: Focus on the Diffusion of "Dividend-like" Ideas", release time: 2024/2/26, no investment recommendation)

From the perspective of the industry, Huatai Securities research report data shows that "in addition to the low congestion of bank positions, steel and utilities transactions, the congestion of the traditional dividend industry may have run to a high range." ”

Huatai Securities' research report believes that "the current dividend market may still have a certain degree of sustainability, and the systematic switching of the market needs to observe the trend of the domestic credit cycle rebounding or the overseas liquidity cycle turning loose, but the current congestion may have run to a high range." At present, it is in a data and policy vacuum, the tone of the wave recovery of domestic fundamentals has not changed fundamentally, the recovery of market risk appetite is likely not to be achieved overnight, M1M2 year-on-year scissors difference and residual liquidity trend to be observed, in the absence of other main lines in the dividend market still has a certain continuity. Considering the high degree of congestion, for investors who are optimistic about dividend assets based on medium and long-term logic, it may be a better time to increase allocation after the congestion of related sectors has fallen. ”

So for A-shares, will the rally continue?

Judging from the logic of the previous rise, it is mainly the joint effect of news, liquidity, and fundamentals. Wu Qing took over as chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and presided over more than ten symposiums two days after the holiday, the central bank cut interest rates by 25BP, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that it would focus more on strictly controlling IPO access.

As for the time when the rebound can last, Hua Chuang Securities Research Report pointed out based on historical data, "

There is still room for this round, the average rebound of the first wave at the bottom of the market is 24%, which lasted for 49 trading days, and the rebound of this round is 14%, 8 trading days.

”

"Historically, the market rebound after the bottom will not be achieved overnight, and the first wave of rebound often needs to go through consolidation and stability.

Since 2008,

13, 16, 19, 20, 22 years of the market bottom area

In terms of the first wave of rebound, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 20-30% and averaged 24%, generally lasting 30-70 trading days with an average of 49, during which the all-A equal weight rose slightly higher, with an average of 27%.

If the market upward trend since 2/5 is defined as the first wave of rebound after the market bottoms out in stages, as of 2/23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 14%, and the all-A equal-weight index rose by 23%, which lasted only 8 trading days, and there is still room for the average level of the first wave of rebound in history. ”

(Image source: Hua Chuang Securities Research Institute, "Industry Comparison Back to 3000 Points - Strategy Week Focus", release time: 2024/2/25, no investment recommendation)

In short, whether it is a bull market rise or a bottom rebound, it is often not achieved overnight, and sometimes a well-timed break is to go further.

02

Warren Buffett's latest operation exposed!

On the evening of February 24, Beijing time, Berkshire Hathaway, a subsidiary of Warren Buffett, released its 2023 fiscal year annual report, as well as Buffett's annual shareholder letter. "Stock God" Buffett's earnings and operations in 2023 have surfaced.

According to the report, Berkshire Hathaway's net profit in the fourth quarter of last year was US$37.574 billion, compared with a profit of US$18.080 billion in the same period last year, and a net profit of US$96.223 billion, or about 690 billion yuan, for the whole year of 2023, with a market expectation of a profit of US$40.821 billion, and a net loss of US$22.819 billion in the same period last year.

In the long run, from 1965 to 2023, Berkshire Hathaway's market capitalization per share will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 19.8%, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's 10.2%, while Berkshire Hathaway's market capitalization growth rate from 1964 to 2023 is a staggering 4384748%, or more than 43,847 times, compared to 31,223% for the S&P 500, or more than 312 times.

(Image source: Berkshire official website, as of 2023/12/31, no investment recommendation)

In terms of holdings, Berkshire's top five holdings are American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola and Chevron. These five companies alone account for 79% of the company's shareholding. In the fourth quarter, Warren Buffett reduced his holdings in Apple, the largest heavy stock, but the latest holdings still account for 50%, while Buffett increased his holdings in Chevron and Occidental Petroleum.

(Data source: Berkshire official website, as of 2023/12/31, no investment recommendation)

Warren Buffett has always held his favorite stocks for a long time. In the shareholder letter, Buffett also mentioned Coca-Cola and American Express, which he has held for decades.

In Buffett's view, these two companies are not as large as Apple's holdings, and each stock represents only 4%-5% of Berkshire's GAAP net value, but they are valuable assets.

Warren Buffett said, "When you find a really great business, stick with it." Patience always pays off, and choosing a great business can hedge against many of the inevitable bad decisions. ”

Like Coca-Cola and American Express, Buffett expects Berkshire to maintain its investment in Japan's Big Five trading companies and Occidental Petroleum indefinitely.

Buffett also made a lot of money by investing in Japanese trading companies, and Buffett revealed that Berkshire holds about 9% of the shares of the five Japanese trading companies. Berkshire's investment in these five companies cost about 1.6 trillion yen from July 2019, and the value of their holdings in these companies is 2.9 trillion yen by the end of 2023. However, Berkshire's unrealized dollar yield stood at 61% ($8 billion) due to a weaker yen.

Buffett believes that "the market is more like a casino now than it was when I was younger, and casinos now exist in many homes and tempt residents every day." One of Berkshire's investment rules has never changed: never risk a permanent loss of capital. ”

Buffett also mentioned the successor that everyone is talking about, emphasizing that Vice Chairman Greg Abel is ready to serve as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway in all aspects. And this year's Berkshire shareholder meeting will be held on May 4 local time in Omaha.

In fact, Warren Buffett has been telling us that the two points of keeping the principal and long-term investment seem simple, but there are very few people who can really do it, and successful investment may not be how much you can make in the short term, and it is not necessarily that you can make the right decision every time, but in a longer period of time, see and avoid risks, do a good job of investing within the circle of competence, and stick to it.

03 

10 wisdom quotes after Zong Qing

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(min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, 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rgba(0, 0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{-- weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{-- wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}