The bear is coming? A technical bull market may still be on the way

Recently, the index has repeatedly struggled up and down the annual line, the washboard market is indeed tossing people, confidence is about to wear out, in fact, it is not as bad as imagined, do not believe you product:

1, from the historical point of view, the last few bulls turned bears, the first feature is that the rate of decline is fast, after setting a new high or a new high, the index fell sharply by 20% in just 10 trading days, quickly trapping the upper chips. In the past 3 months, the Shanghai index has repeatedly tested the annual line support, but the two falls in July and August have been quickly withdrawn; the second characteristic is that the scapegoat, in 2008, was the financing of the Ping An crocodile for 100 billion yuan, and the 15 years was to check the over-the-counter allocation; the third feature is that the hope to save the market, the funds of various plates rush to escape, emotionally eager to save the national team, and then take advantage of the good, open high or rush high to trap a batch of people to continue to kill and fall. The above three characteristics, at present, have not yet appeared, the sharp decline in the end of July only the wave of decline has this posture, the scapegoat, quantification is gradually calm, looking forward to the rescue has not yet been seen, but the North Stock Exchange is about to open. If the market enters the abyss next week and turns bear completely, it will take an important pusher, and the previous blow to the commodity combination has been gradually digested, and if there is no new major bearishness, it may not be enough to turn the market around.

2, from the plate point of view, the rotation is still continuing, from the first half of the lithium battery, medical beauty and chips and other tracks, to the second half of the coal, steel, chemical, nonferrous metals, electricity and other pro-cyclical resources, and then to the current new energy, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, etc., the automobile sector is still constantly reaching new heights, these phenomena are not like the signs of the coming of the bear. In fact, the market hotspots have been switching, but the pace is relatively fast.

3, macro aspect, although the old United States shrinks the watch arrow on the string, but also expected to raise interest rates next year, but the domestic monetary policy is still mainly stable, even if the Federal Reserve starts to "collect water", it will not drive the domestic monetary policy to tighten, not to mention that the central banks are very cautious, whether they can raise interest rates as scheduled is not yet known; in addition, the pilot promotion of real estate tax reform has a far-reaching impact on the securities market.

In summary, the recent market decline can be understood as digesting the negative effects of commodity regulation, the Fed's expected balance sheet reduction, the opening of the North Stock Exchange, etc., and the switching of high and low plates under the stock capital game, and then forming a shock market with 3500 as the center and fluctuations in the range of 200 up and down. Time and time for space will lay a solid foundation for the next round of a full-fledged bull market. Back to the details, as long as the recent pro-cyclical high plate is not mixed, even if other stocks fall briefly, there are opportunities to unwind or even make profits, such as vinegar grass, paper grass stocks, such as many such tickets, which is a good phenomenon. If the nonsense decline of last Friday afternoon continues, the probability of exploring the 3477 low next Monday is high, and if the emotional catharsis is completed and the bottom rises, it will stabilize, otherwise the rapid decline will see a new low, and it will only be 3300.

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The above personal opinions do not constitute operational advice, and the consequences are at your own risk.