1, this week's Shanghai index fell a total of 57 points, the lowest to 3477 points, here we must remind you that this 3477 points have a coincidence, from the daily line can not see the beginning, the weekly line is very artistic, the probability of Thursday's rebound everyone also remembers, when pulled out a 28 points of the Yang line, in fact, the Yang line is the anti-pumping of Tuesday's low, because tuesday's lowest time is 3477 points, and you look at the weekly 60-day moving average point is exactly at 3477 points, The conclusion is that Thursday's rally is a feedback on the weekly moving average support, with a low of 3491 on Friday, which seems to indicate that the next week will test 3477 points again, and if it is broken, then the weekly support will be completely broken.
At this time, everyone will think, then this is not going to usher in a signal of change, in fact, I feel that there is no need to worry about it, if you look at it from the weekly line, this year's entire almost a year is almost oscillating between 3400 points and 3700 points, every time as long as the market falls below 3400 points can be quickly recovered, which shows that even if it is broken, there will be funds to actively suck chips, the Shanghai index itself does not have much room to fall, so next week I hope that the Shanghai index can continue to break through the 60-day line, In this way, it may soon usher in a new rise, and it is also the formation of a turning point.
2, in stark contrast to the Shanghai index is the ChiNext index, to be honest, the trend of the ChiNext index makes people look very distressed, whether it is a daily or weekly line, the graph is not very smooth, you will find that since October 25, the ChiNext index almost belongs to the state of standing still, the form is very tired, especially this week's five trading days are almost in a small yin and yang irregular fluctuations, generally speaking, when the index is in a continuous sideways or irregular fluctuations, it is often an important change signal, Because the sideways market represents the lack of power to attack upwards, that is, the lack of upward strength of the market has finally formed the indices of the incognito, and from the perspective of historical experience, generally after this situation is the change point of the index direction, either turning upwards, or turning downwards, and finally depending on the direction of the change point lies in the position of the index, if it is after a period of rise, it is equivalent to having a cumulative profit plate, the probability of changing the disk downward at this time is large, if the index is not large, the space for the profit disk is not large, Then the probability of changing the disk upwards is larger.
From the current GEM index profit disk space is actually not large, it can be said that it is almost difficult to see a huge profit disk, in this case, I feel that the probability of turning point upwards is greater, the current ChiNext index weekly chart is in a continuous small Yang line rising, the focus is on whether next week can form a weekly acceleration of the situation, so that the current confusion dilemma will be resolved, there is a little Gem index weekly macd technical indicators are a little gradually inclined to turn upwards, which is a gratifying signal, The key point of the problem now is whether there will be signs of acceleration next week, or whether there will be a strong Yang line on the weekly or daily line, so that a turning point will really be formed on the disk.
To sum up, from the technical analysis of these I feel that the overall is a continuation of the trend of the problem, in the fourth quarter to appear the probability of the main rise of the market is still very small, this key point is still in the improvement of corporate earnings, because most of the overall enterprises need to have a breakthrough in profits, the index valuation system can be improved as a whole, which is a positive effect on the index to form a new upward range, the current look at these conditions are not mature enough, it depends on the degree of economic change in the next.
Unless there is a point, in fact, I do not believe that the central bank will cut the RRR or anything, to stimulate economic growth, but the market's voice is generally very high, then the next look at whether there will be an unexpected side of the policy, if it really comes, then the formation of the main rising market is not inevitable.
Disclaimer: The content in this article is for reference only, does not constitute any operational advice or tips, the stock market is risky, please be cautious about investment!