Depth of The Chinese Commentary: Yuan Zheng on shaping Sino-US relations
Reporter: Xu Mengxi (Beijing)
Source: China Commentary Agency
WeChat platform editor: Zhou Yue
Yuan Zheng, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was recently interviewed by the China Commentary Agency to explain the current situation of Sino-US relations, the Biden administration's China policy, Xinjiang-related and Hong Kong-related Taiwan-related and human/rights issues in Sino-US relations, and climate change cooperation at the 100-day node when the new US President Biden took office, and shared his views on the future development of Sino-US relations and how to shape Sino-US relations with "I" as the mainstay.
Yuan Zheng commented on the current Sino-US relations, saying that in the short period after Biden took office, although Sino-US relations were still at a low ebb, they had already passed through the most tense period and had become relatively stable. At present, China and the United States are still in the process of exploring the bottom line. He has repeatedly mentioned that it is unrealistic to have a sense of normalcy in the current Sino-US relations, not to give too high expectations to the US side, and to expect Biden to greatly change Sino-US relations and make Sino-US relations develop in the direction we want.
Yuan Zheng mentioned when talking about the Biden administration's China policy that there is no essential difference between the Biden government and the Trump administration in terms of China positioning, but Biden's China policy will consider how to deal with the relationship between competition and cooperation. He also mentioned that a prominent feature of the Biden administration in the field of diplomacy is to put allies and partners in the first place, and China has become an important base point for the United States to strengthen alliances and partnerships and a tool to strengthen cohesion.
On the issue of people/rights, Yuan Zheng believes that the Biden administration uses the ideological level of democrats/rights as tools to strengthen the relationship and ties between the United States and Western allies, but strengthening ideological differences does not help Sino-US cooperation and strategic mutual trust. On Xinjiang-related and Hong Kong-related issues, Yuan Zheng said that the United States has its own purpose in using the two to attack China, and it is difficult for us to stop it, so we should further do a good job in the development of the two places, and at the same time be more transparent to the outside world and explain the actual situation of these two regions. On the issue of climate change, Yuan Zheng believes that it is difficult to support the entire Sino-US relationship by looking at it rationally.
On the Taiwan issue, Yuan Zheng pointed out that Biden will continue to develop relations with Taiwan, but in fact, under the guise of the "one-China" policy, the "one-China" policy has been hollowed out, and it is a substantive "diplomatic relationship" without formal "diplomatic relations." Its official color is becoming stronger and stronger, and military cooperation is becoming more and more strengthened. However, the Biden administration expects to maintain a situation of "no reunification, no independence, and no war", so it is impossible to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan and easily abandon the "one-China" policy framework. Even in the "strategic ambiguity" policy toward Taiwan, the Biden administration will not change easily.
Finally, Yuan Zheng said that in shaping Sino-US relations, we do not necessarily have to invest our main resources and energy in the United States, but we can focus on "I" in other fields and other countries and regions, do some things well, and find more friends, which is a way to resist US suppression, and will also harvest more capital and more ability to shape Sino-US relations.
Yuan Zheng, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Photo by China Commentary Agency)
Here's the interview:
China Commentary: After the sharp decline in Sino-US relations in the late stage of The Trump administration, the Chinese New Year's Eve call between the Chinese and US dollars has rekindled our hopes for Sino-US relations, but the recent Alaska dialogue and the recent US statements and practices on China have brought people back to pessimism. What do you think about this, and how do you evaluate the current Sino-US relations?
Yuan Zheng: During the Trump era, Sino-US relations were at a low ebb, and everyone had some over-interpretation of any bit of turmoil between the two countries. At this stage of Sino-US relations, we may not suddenly feel happy or suddenly feel bad because of one thing, at least from the perspective of scholars, this is not a rational, objective and rigorous attitude, but a more emotional cognitive performance. We should be comprehensive, rational and objective, seeing both the positive side and the negative side; we must see the current situation, but also see the past and future development context.
Because of this, like our long-term tracking of Sino-US relations, frankly, there is nothing surprising or strange about today, which should be expected. A lot of things have happened in the past 4 years of Trump's administration, so when analyzing the Biden administration's China policy, we must first look at what the entire political situation in the United States is like, what is the attitude toward China in the United States, and then, although Biden has a mild personal temperament, how does his team recognize China? In addition, what kind of situation Biden is facing, how he will deal with China relations, and how he can balance the needs of domestic political needs and China policy must be comprehensively examined. In fact, whether you like it or not, whether we are happy or not, to some extent, it is not based on our will, but has its own objective law of development.
Today, Americans have regarded China as the number one strategic competitor, which means that there is no obvious difference between Trump and Biden on the issue of China perception and strategic positioning. There are indeed great differences between China and the United States in terms of social systems and cultural traditions. Although China has repeatedly stressed that it does not like strategic competition, it is unlikely that the Americans will change their original hegemonic thinking. Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect Biden to change the relationship between China and the United States to a large extent and make the relationship develop in the direction we want.
I have stressed many times that we must be normal in the current Sino-US relations and should not give too high expectations to the US side. The US side has made it clear that it must first solve domestic problems, and in the field of foreign policy, it is first necessary to consolidate the relationship between allies and partners, not relations with China. To strengthen the relationship between allies and partners is to coordinate and maintain the existing international order led by the Western countries led by the United States, and to prevent China from challenging the existing international order.
In the short period after Biden took office, Sino-US relations have experienced Trump's hysterical measures against China, and although they are still at a low ebb, they have passed the most tense period and become relatively stable. At least the Biden administration has not taken any further steps on some of the fundamental issues that would directly harm us, emphasizing cooperation beyond competition and explicitly stating that it does not seek military confrontation with China. Not only that, within three months of Biden's rise to power, China and the United States have all stopped talks and eased up to continuous high-level communication between the two sides, and dialogue and exchanges have been slowly resumed. Compared with the Trump administration, this US government is also more predictable and can look at the China issue more rationally and objectively.
At present, China and the United States are still in the process of exploring the bottom line, and we should not have too high expectations for Sino-US relations. The reason for the pessimism or disappointment now is that some people have previously had unrealistic expectations for the Sino-US relationship. Frankly speaking, with the rapid rise of China's comprehensive strength, Sino-US relations have entered a new stage. Even without Trump, the US China policy will gradually turn tough, and the strategic competition and game between China and the United States are developing towards a strengthening trend, which is inevitable.
Comment: It has been three months since Biden took office, what are the characteristics of the Biden administration's China policy? What is the likely state of U.S.-China relations in the next four years?
Yuan Zheng: At present, the Biden administration's China policy is still under evaluation, but the basic outline can be seen. In terms of china positioning, the democratic and republican parties have a consensus, and it is also a bipartisan consensus to be tough on China, so there is no essential difference between the Biden administration and the Trump administration on this point.
The difference is that Trump is an extreme opportunist who will stop at nothing to achieve his political ends, so he does not govern well at home, and throws all the responsibility to China out of electoral needs. Biden is not the same, he believes that the reason why the United States has some problems in the Sino-US competition is not Because of China, but because the United States itself has problems, so it is typical to start from the United States itself, which is typical of the inside out. But Biden also has a bad tendency to use an enemy from the outside to push for some governance options at home. After all, biden's domestic pressure is high, and the two-party fight has just begun.
Foreign policy is not Biden's main focus at the moment, the main focus is on the United States. But in the field of diplomacy, a prominent feature of the Biden administration is to put allies and partners in the first place, to win over and ease relations with allies and partners, to form a united front, and then to maintain the international system dominated by Western countries led by the United States. The China and Russia issues have become an important basis for the United States to strengthen its alliance and partnership and a tool for enhancing cohesion. In the European direction, the United States mainly takes Russia as the target to improve transatlantic relations and enhance NATO cohesion; in the Asia-Pacific direction, it actually takes China as the target to strengthen the relationship between the United States and its regional allies, and strives to build an "Asia-Pacific small NATO" on the basis of the security mechanism of the Indo-Pacific four countries. Not only that, but ideologically, the Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized the common denominator of Western values, establishing adversaries on the one hand and strengthening ideology on the other, all in order to strengthen relations with allies and partners, and then consolidate the international order led by the United States and suppress China and Russia.
Of course, there is another feature on the China issue, that is, the Biden administration is not completely one-sided to suppress, but also emphasizes that there are still areas of cooperation between the two sides. This shows that Biden's China policy must consider how to deal with the relationship between competition and cooperation, which needs a balance, and cooperation is very important for stabilizing Sino-US relations, especially when Sino-US relations are at a low point.
As for the next four years, Sino-US relations may show a state of "twisting", and this relationship may be very complicated. It is particularly prominent in the fields of economy, trade and science and technology.
On economic and trade issues, although Biden does not approve of the Trump administration's trade war with China, he has a tough attitude on issues such as trade deficits, market access, intellectual property rights, the RENMINBI exchange rate, and state-owned enterprise subsidies, and will not abandon the principle of reciprocity emphasized by the Trump administration, and the two goals are generally the same. The Biden administration will even demand concessions on many issues by eliminating the high tariffs imposed on Chinese products. Biden will also seek to coordinate with allies to press China to further open its markets. I think the U.S. will also emphasize reciprocity and try to get U.S. manufacturing back. But the problem is that the possibility of high-tech industries and high-end manufacturing returning to the United States exists, but the low-end return is very difficult, because the domestic labor force in the United States is too expensive, the cost will rise sharply, and it lacks competitiveness, so industrial capital does not want to go back, unless the government forcibly intervenes. However, this is a deviation from the market economy and less government intervention emphasized by the United States, especially the Republican Party, so it will face relatively great difficulties in actually doing so. In terms of economic relations between the two sides, there may be new adjustments in the global production chain, but it is impossible to completely "decouple". At best, it is an area that is more important for national security interests, and the United States may return or change investment in some industries for security reasons.
In terms of science and technology, what is more likely is the "high wall of small courtyards", that is, the United States does not block all scientific and technological fields, but only focuses on blocking several of the most advanced and core technologies, implements a stricter blockade of China in the high-end cutting-edge scientific and technological fields, and builds the wall against China high to prevent China from overtaking in curves. If science and technology are all decoupled, it will involve the development of the high-tech industry in the United States. China is a big market, if they all withdraw from the Chinese market, the loss of American companies will be very large, and Europe, Japan and other developed countries will profit from it, once the United States companies lose this part of the market, the risk in the sustainable development of science will rise sharply. Therefore, the trend of technology decoupling will be more obvious, but it is also difficult to completely decouple, and the Biden administration must consider the balance of risk and benefit.
Militarily, I think the game between the two sides will intensify. Military cooperation between China and the United States will be very limited, competition and confrontation will rise, and the main areas of cooperation will be more limited to avoiding misjudgment and managing differences, which is manifested in the absence of direct conflicts and military confrontation between the two sides.
At the diplomatic level, the two sides come and go, and they want to fight in the ring. Because the Biden administration wants to return to multilateralism and emphasize the leadership role of the United States, that is to say, whether from the perspective of realism or ideology, the two sides will strengthen in the international arena, from the global multilateral international mechanism, including the WTO, the United Nations, the WHO and other international organizations, and then bilaterally. The two sides come and go, and the superficiality of competition and game is difficult to avoid. The focus of the Sino-US competition is in the Western Pacific region, that is, China's peripheral areas, and the competition between the two sides and the investment of resources will be more prominent in this region in the future.
As far as future Sino-US relations are concerned, there is also cooperation, in terms of climate change, environmental protection, and even the coordination of global economic development policies, and then on the issue of arms control and non-proliferation, mainly involving the North Korean nuclear issue and the Iranian nuclear issue, and even including peace and stability in the Western Pacific region, the two sides will carry out "negative cooperation", that is, to cooperate without problems. But sometimes the United States also uses cooperation as a means of suppressing China, which will lead to a very complicated situation, that is, the two sides may not be completely consistent even in the field of cooperation, and it is difficult to completely decouple, presenting a complicated situation in which the two sides are twisted together.
China Commentary: Climate change is one of the few areas where China and the United States are currently initiating cooperation. Do you think that Sino-US cooperation on climate change affairs can become the new "ping-pong diplomacy"?
Yuan Zheng: "Ping-Pong diplomacy" was a major diplomatic breakthrough between China and the United States under hostile relations under the international situation in the early 1970s, and it was a stroke that could be written in a big book in Sino-US relations. But now, including Kerry's visit to China and U.S.-China cooperation on climate change, it is difficult to play such a role, after all, time and space have changed a lot. At that time, because of the existence of the common rival of the Soviet Union, the great triangle between China and the United States and the Soviet Union loomed. At that time, Sino-Soviet relations broke down, and even border conflicts broke out, and the Us side believed that if it eased relations with China and joined hands with China to deal with the Soviet Union, it would put the United States in a relatively favorable position. It is precisely because the Chinese and American governments have strategic considerations that they have carried out "ping-pong diplomacy." Today, China has directly become the main strategic competitor of the United States, and without the intention of such strategic cooperation between China and the United States, similar "ping-pong diplomacy" cannot be achieved.
It is undeniable that from Obama to Biden, the two Democratic administrations have paid special attention to the issue of climate change. In fact, climate change is a controversial issue in the United States, and it involves partisanship. Republicans are adamantly opposed to making more commitments on climate change, such as Trump's direct withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement after taking office. The Republican Party and the big business class in the United States are closely related, and many people in the business community are reluctant to undertake such international obligations, believing that it will increase the cost of production and make American products lose their international competitiveness. Only democratic liberals or a small number of centrists attach importance to climate change and to international multilateral cooperation.
Now, the U.S. side considers China to be the world's largest emitter. The US side also needs China's cooperation on this issue, otherwise it is impossible to succeed in solving the problem of gas change. However, there are a number of people in the United States who are trying to "increase the weight" and make China assume more emission reduction obligations, so as to increase the burden of China's development.
For China, china has made clear commitments and made great concessions in the Paris agreement. We are willing to abide by the commitments that have been made, but we are not willing to increase the burden because we are developing countries and too many concessions are unfair and have a negative impact on development, leading to increased production costs. In fact, the average emissions of Chinese are actually not high, but because there are 1.4 billion people, the total emissions are not small.
In the final analysis, the times have changed, and even if Sino-US cooperation will help stabilize Sino-US relations, it is difficult to play the same effect as the "ping-pong diplomacy" of that year.
Four years later, once the Republican Party comes to power, will the change of gas still become a point of Sino-US cooperation? I'm skeptical. So I mean, take a rational view of Sino-US gas change cooperation: it is difficult to support the entire Sino-US relationship on just one issue of climate change, and sometimes it is even a "seasoning".
China Review: How will the Biden administration's statement in February that it will put people/rights at the heart of U.S. foreign policy? How should China respond as the United States continues to hype up china's human rights issues and interfere in China's Xinjiang and Hong Kong affairs?
Yuan Zheng: First, the Democratic Party has always emphasized ideological factors such as democrats and rights. There are very different aspects between China and the United States precisely at the ideological, human/rights democracy issues, and social and historical culture. And the superiority-minded and paranoid American elite has always liked to measure and judge other countries by their own standards, and they have naked double standards.
Second, with regard to the perception of human rights, there are relatively large differences between developing countries led by China and Western countries led by the United States. The developing countries led by China mainly emphasize the right to development and the right to subsistence, that is to say, the development of human rights has a historical stage, and the first thing to be solved is the right to subsistence and the right to development; without the basic right to subsistence and the right to development, there is no guarantee of political rights at all. Western countries have passed the initial stage of development and have long solved the basic survival problem of food and clothing, so they have placed more emphasis on political rights. There are obviously some differences between the two sides.
Third, the Biden administration has actually consciously highlighted ideological issues such as democrats/rights, emphasized differences, and drawn a line between China and Russia in order to ease conflicts with allies, enhance the sense of value identity, and strengthen the relationship and ties between the United States and Western allies. Because there is basically no disagreement between Western countries on the issue of values, the Biden administration uses it as a tool.
As for how to affect Sino-US relations, this is tantamount to drawing a line with China, showing that "I" am not the same as "you", "I" and other Western countries are "democracies", and "you" are authoritarian countries, centralized systems, and different. The strengthening of ideological differences by the United States certainly does not help sino-US relations cooperation, nor does it help Sino-US strategic mutual trust. The so-called "different ways are not conspiratorial", or implicit or explicit, the Biden administration has drawn a front between China, Russia, Iran and Western countries, and this demarcation of the boundary will have a negative impact on Sino-US relations from cognition to action.
On the Xinjiang issue, the Americans have actually had bad intentions very early on, and have been using Xinjiang to interfere in China's internal affairs, but in recent years they have reached a new peak. Biden inherited the Trump administration's so-called "genocide" narrative, more than just because of the question of hyping up the ideology of human/power democracy, to a greater extent. Compared with the United States, Europe actually attaches more importance to the issue of Xinjiang and Tibet. Therefore, if the United States wants to build a so-called united front, or even a global democratic alliance, then Since Europe attaches great importance to it, it must play this card to strengthen mutual recognition and transatlantic relations between the two sides. It is not difficult for us to understand that Biden has been very positive and has made strong accusations against China. On the Hong Kong issue, the Hong Kong issue actually involves the United Kingdom, so for the Biden administration, it is also necessary to make a gesture on this issue.
In fact, the Biden administration's posture, in addition to suppressing and containing China, and as a tool to strengthen relations with allies and partners, there are also factors in the United States. There are also moderates, conservatives, and radical liberals in the Democratic Party, and after Biden takes office, it must be balanced, especially for some radical liberals in the party, and it is necessary to make a certain gesture to strengthen the cohesion within the Democratic Party.
So how should China respond?
First of all, we must seriously reflect on the summary. Hong Kong is a typical example, the problem can not deteriorate to a certain extent, the central government was forced to take measures directly, in fact, this is not the original intention of the central government. There are many lessons that Hong Kong has to sum up, and the reason why there are problems is caused by a variety of factors, including government factors and internal social factors, and it is imperative to resolve some contradictory issues at the moment.
Second, with me as the mainstay, I will continue to improve my governance level in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Whether it is Xinjiang or Hong Kong, it is necessary to find out the hidden dangers in them and straighten out the relations between all aspects, especially the problems of people's livelihood. We must take effective measures to promote the development of the two places, so that the region can first stabilize, and then promote regional development, so that the whole situation can operate in a good direction.
Third, on the issue of discourse power, it is necessary to explain in more detail to the outside world more transparently and avoid misunderstandings. Internationally, we must speak out and clarify the truth in a timely manner, and invite more foreigners to visit Xinjiang. Don't wait until the outside world has paid close attention to it, or even taken measures, before we increase our propaganda efforts, explain our counter-terrorism efforts in Xinjiang, and publicize the achievements we have made. Not only that, but a lot of our propaganda work is for the domestic public, but I think the object of the explanation should be focused on the outside world and facing the international audience.
Frankly speaking, the United States uses the Xinjiang issue and the Hong Kong issue to attack us for its own purpose, and it is difficult for us to stop it, so we should do our own thing, maintain stability, promote development, and at the same time be more transparent to the outside world and introduce the actual situation in these two regions.
Comment: The Biden administration has made continuous small moves on the Taiwan issue, including signing a memorandum of cooperation on Coast Guard, the US ambassador's visit to Taiwan with President Palau, sending an unofficial delegation to visit Taiwan, and repeatedly mentioning that it will support Taiwan. How do you think the Biden administration handled its relations with Taiwan? The recent practices of the US side have aggravated the tension in the Taiwan Strait, but at the same time, the US side has repeatedly called for cross-strait dialogue, so what kind of situation does the Biden administration expect in the Taiwan Strait?
Yuan Zheng: Whether it is for the Biden administration or the previous Trump administration, Taiwan is a card that can balance and contain China's development. This card is very important, poking at our weaknesses, they will not be used, especially in the case of Sino-US strategic competition and game strengthening, will continue to use. As the Taiwan independence forces expect, Taiwan may become an integral part of the US Indo-Pacific strategy. In addition, the Biden administration has always emphasized the so-called "global democratic alliance", so the importance of Taiwan is actually increasing.
On the Taiwan side, in recent years, due to the Tsai Ing-wen administration's failure to recognize the "1992 Consensus," the basis for cross-strait political dialogue has ceased to exist, and cross-strait relations have deteriorated sharply and are in a very cold situation. The Tsai Ing-wen authorities have also pursued a policy of "pro-US resistance to the mainland" and are clinging to the thighs of the United States, so cross-strait relations are actually quite tense.
Taking into account China's development and various factors, the United States feels that China may use force against Taiwan in the future. Against this background, out of democratic considerations, out of practical dangers, and out of considerations to contain China's development, the United States will certainly intensify its efforts to play the "Taiwan card." This is actually to strengthen support for Taiwan.
During the Trump administration, U.S. support for Taiwan became more and more prominent. After Biden took office, I think first of all, we will continue to develop relations with Taiwan. This relationship is nominally unofficial, but in fact it is hollowing out the "one China" policy under the guise of the "one China" policy. For example, not long ago, the Biden administration sent a former senior government official, like Biden's envoy, but without a title, as an unofficial representative to deal with Taiwan. The Biden administration has also issued some new guidelines for engagement, inheriting some of the practices of the Trump era, which is actually to greatly relax the exchanges between diplomats between the United States and Taiwan. That is to say, Biden is now promoting substantive "diplomatic relations" between the United States and Taiwan without formal "diplomatic relations", with increasingly official colors and increasingly strengthening military cooperation. But the Biden administration is not yet afraid to recognize the "one China" policy. It is impossible for the Americans to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan and it is impossible to easily abandon the "one-China" policy framework, because this means that the United States has not fulfilled or kept its promises. Once that happens, it will directly and nakedly touch the red line of the Chinese side.
Once this is the case, the Chinese side will have no choice but to make concessions, will not hesitate to sever diplomatic relations with the United States, and has every reason to use force against Taiwan. This is because the United States "severed diplomatic relations, withdrawn troops, and abrogated the treaty" on the Taiwan issue that year was the prerequisite for China and the United States to establish diplomatic relations. If the United States reneges on its promises and nakedly deviates from these commitments, the Chinese mainland will inevitably resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity and speed up the pace of the reunification of the motherland.
Of course, I think the Biden administration, from the bottom of its heart, is opposed to either side changing the status quo. In fact, the Biden administration now sees what changes the status quo by Chinese mainland, such as the crossing of the "median line of the Taiwan Strait" by PLA military planes. What the US side is looking forward to is to maintain the situation of "no reunification, no independence, and no war, and it hopes to engage in "one China, one Taiwan" and does not want war to occur. If war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will face a very difficult strategic choice. Therefore, the US side will have a bottom line in handling the Taiwan issue, that is, to maintain a certain balance and not to provoke China too much, because if it provokes China, it may lead to a more unstable situation in the Taiwan region.
Still, the results of U.S. policy have made tensions in the Taiwan Strait even more tense. In order to play the "Taiwan card," the US side has strengthened its relations with Taiwan, revised the norms governing US-Taiwan exchanges, strengthened military cooperation with Taiwan, and sold more weapons. Chinese mainland as a countermeasure, in order to crack down on the arrogance of "Taiwan independence" elements, it is necessary to adopt necessary measures, including the current "around Taiwan" and military exercises, so as to deter the Taiwan independence forces. The result that people have seen is that the strategic game between China and the United States has made the situation in the Taiwan Strait more tense. There is also the fact that the Taiwan independence forces see an opportunity to push the ambitions of "Taiwan independence" to become even greater, and they will even take risks recklessly. Several factors have been superimposed, and judging from the results of the US policy, the situation in the entire Taiwan Strait region is even more tense.
Comment: After Biden took office, the United States continued to win over its major allies, and at the same time, China also generously demonstrated friendly relations with Russia, Iran and other countries. Some media believe that the division of camps in the world similar to the Cold War-like barriers is gradually seeing a silhouette, and some media say that the "Iron Curtain" will not land between China and the United States. What do you think about that?
Yuan Zheng: This is indeed the case. The United States is doing its best to lobby and co-opt its allies and partners, but it is also emphasizing ideological factors, emphasizing the differences in values and political systems, and attacking Countries such as China and Russia as "authoritarian countries" or "authoritarian countries." For China, the pressure of the United States has objectively promoted cooperation between China and Russia, and the cooperation between China and Iran has also undergone some changes. This is indeed an important tactic in the strategic competition game between the two sides, and the contours of the camp are either hidden or present.
On the other hand, the times have changed a lot. The emergence of the Cold War was after the end of World War II, when there was a confrontation between the two camps of the United States and the Soviet Union, with little economic and personnel exchanges between the two sides, and then the two sides competed in the middle of the two major blocs, and even launched a proxy war, in order to avoid a direct collision between the two superpowers.
But that won't happen between China and the United States. First of all, this is the era of globalization, although after Trump took office, especially the epidemic has impacted globalization, the general trend of globalization has not fundamentally changed. In fact, due to globalization and the development of communication technology and transportation technology, countries around the world have become more and more interconnected and personnel exchanges have become more frequent.
Second, China and the United States are each other's important trading partners. China was once America's largest trading partner. After the trade war, although we fell to third place, we remained an important trading partner of the United States. From a statistical point of view, the trade between China and the United States in the first quarter of 2021 is not decreasing, but increasing, and the increase is more obvious. In addition, even if the epidemic temporarily blocked the exchange of people between the two countries, China is still the country with the largest number of students studying in the United States. Even in this day and age, the interdependence and interconnectivity between China and the United States have been continuing, far from being completely blocked.
Finally, even if China signs a comprehensive agreement on strategic cooperation with Russia and Iran, it is not an alliance. China does not have its own alliance group, and we have no consciousness to establish such an alliance group. Even if the Sino-US strategic game and competition intensifies, it will be difficult for us to see the confrontation between the two major military alliance groups as in the Cold War.
These factors make it difficult to emerge as was the case during the Cold War.
It should be said that Sino-US relations have passed the hottest or most harmonious era, and this is indeed gone forever. The overall relationship between China and the United States may become a little colder, and the importance attached to each other may also change. Especially on the Chinese side, in the past China has always emphasized the role of the United States and emphasized the development of relations with the United States, but now that the United States has consciously suppressed China and implemented a certain degree of "decoupling", then China naturally wants to invest more energy and resources into places outside the United States, and this possibility exists. I think that pulling away a certain distance is not necessarily a bad thing, just like people, going too close is easy to produce contradictions, and it will be better to pull away a little distance. As for the Iron Curtain like the Cold War, it should not come down between China and the United States.
China Commentary: How will China play games and engage with the United States and shape Sino-US relations next?
Yuan Zheng: This involves the adjustment and layout of China's strategy. We don't have to invest our main resources and energy on the United States, we should focus on "me" and do some things well, including strengthening cooperation with other countries and regions. This requires us to open our minds and find more friends, which is a way to counter the US oppression, and China will have more capital to play games with the United States and more ability to shape Sino-US relations.
Specifically, from a bilateral perspective, China and the United States are already "you have me, I have you", and the social exchanges between the two countries are very important for the relations between the two countries, which is an important foundation for Sino-US relations. In the future, from the perspective of the Chinese side, we should still strengthen social exchanges and people-to-people exchanges between the two countries with a more open mind.
For ourselves, we must focus on "me", straighten out the entire national policy, and continuously improve the level of national governance. We must have self-confidence, reform and opening up should continue, open the country's door wider, let the Chinese market play its due charm, welcome all countries to tourism investment, and achieve a win-win situation. In this way, the Chinese people's lives are better, they are satisfied with the Chinese government, China's society is stable, and objectively speaking, it will also be conducive to enhancing our international image. Because the better the system develops, the more attractive it is, and we can make more friends.
In fact, the more reform and opening up, the more American companies are inseparable from China. Some multinational capital and large enterprises have a lot of say in the United States, and by doing our work for them, we have made it a link between the two countries, so as to play a subtle role in stabilizing Sino-US relations by taking the lead from point to point and with the small and the large.
There is also how we can do better on the issue of foreign propaganda or international discourse. When exchanging views with the United States, speak words that the American people can understand, let them realize the prospects of China's development and understand the history of China's development, clarify China's idea of not competing for hegemony with the United States, and let more American people understand and understand China better.
Of course, for the Biden administration, first of all, we have to manage the differences. Although some contradictions are difficult to resolve, the key lies in how to control differences within a limited scope in the current critical period and avoid intensification and outbreaks or even direct collisions. On the other hand, to promote cooperation, the two sides should maintain dialogue and communication in areas where cooperation can be carried out, expand cooperation, build confidence in cooperation, and make both sides believe that through cooperation, Sino-US relations can avoid falling into a worse situation.
The "stability maintenance" of Sino-US relations is a composite project that also requires the joint efforts of both sides. For China, we need to do our best, focusing on "me", grasping certainty and reducing uncertainty, which should be our thinking.
Think tank of the digital economy
Political Science and International Relations Forum
In order to better serve the construction of digital China, serve the construction of the "Belt and Road", and strengthen theoretical exchanges and practical exchanges in the process of digital economy construction. Experts and scholars from China's digital economy and the "Belt and Road" construction have established a digital economy think tank to contribute to the construction of digital China. Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, served as honorary president, and well-known young scholars Huang Rihan and Chu Yin led the way. The Political Science and International Relations Forum is a dedicated platform under the umbrella of the Digital Economy Think Tank.