On November 4, Zhao Wei, chief economist of Kaiyuan Securities, released a research report "Taper landing, the next step is to raise interest rates?" 》。 The research report predicts that the current turmoil of the taper is weakening, and the change in interest rate hike expectations is more worthy of attention. In the context of monetary policy normalization, the actual impact of taper is relatively limited, and the impact of interest rate hikes on the market may be more obvious.
In November, the Fed officially launched the tape
In the early morning of February 4, the Federal Reserve released its latest interest rate statement, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged; from November, it will reduce the purchase of $10 billion of US Treasuries and $5 billion of MBS per month (currently $80 billion of US Treasuries and $40 billion per month), and the pace can be flexibly adjusted.
Zhao Wei believes that compared with September, the Fed believes that the US economy has made substantial progress; the imbalance between supply and demand related to the epidemic and the economic restart has led to a sharp increase in prices in some industries; and the progress of vaccination and the easing of supply bottlenecks are expected to support sustained growth in economic activity and employment, as well as lower inflation.
Powell insisted on "temporary" inflation, downplaying expectations of rate hikes
At a press conference after the November interest rate meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said:
1. The economy has made substantial progress toward the FOMC target and is expected to achieve full employment in the second half of 2022.
2. Taper is expected to end in mid-2022 and is ready to adjust the pace of reduction according to economic conditions.
3. With the easing of the contradiction between supply and demand, inflation may fall from a high level in the third or fourth quarter of 2022.
4, now is not the time to raise interest rates, reduce the timing of bond purchases has no direct signal significance for interest rate hikes.
U.S. stocks, gold rose, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and dollar indices rose and fell
After the announcement of the interest statement, the interest rate of 10-year US Treasuries and the US dollar index rose, and the trend of US stocks and gold fluctuated. After Powell's speech, US stocks and gold both rose, and the interest rate of 10-year US Treasuries and the US dollar index fell.
The taper's disturbance is weakening, and the change in the expected rate hike is more noteworthy
Zhao Wei expects that in the context of the normalization of monetary policy, the actual impact of taper is relatively limited, and the impact of interest rate hikes on the market may be more obvious. Historically, the announcement of taper at the end of 2013 and the implementation of the following month, the reaction of major assets such as US stocks and US bonds was slightly flat; but as interest rate hikes are expected to heat up, the adjustment of major markets has accelerated. (Zhongxin Jingwei app)
(The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.) )