The "arrogant" Li Bin is back.
"Weilai has no opponents who can compete in the high-end field," Li Bin said calmly at the earnings conference call on August 12, 2021.
Since the beginning of this year, the monthly sales of nearly 8,000 vehicles, the price of bicycles 400,000 yuan, compared with mercedes-Benz, Audi 3-digit sales, Weilai has become a new favorite in the field of domestic high-end cars. As the chairman of WEI, Li Bin is indeed proud.
It is hard to imagine that just over a year ago, Li Bin was also called "the most miserable person in 2019".
Undoubtedly, Li Bin can achieve a big turnaround in such a short period of time, just like riding a roller coaster, more because of the trend of global development of new energy vehicles.
Now Li Bin throws out the bold words of "there is no opponent", which is an encouragement to Weilai, but also to put himself on the fire to roast - as soon as his voice fell, Weilai had an accident: a 31-year-old young man, driving Weilai ES8, died in an accident.
At present, we do not know where the problem and responsibility of the accident are, but let's not say whether there is no opponent, as long as there is a problem with Weilai's car, then Weilai has not even passed its own pass: safety. For a new mobility tool brand, no matter what its motivation is, safety will always be the golden ruler of consumers' first consideration.
Whether it is the original luxury car route or the low-end model that will be launched, Weilai Road still has a long way to go.
<h2>Li Bin's highlights and hidden worries</h2>
After the dilemma of 2019, Weilai has been more smooth sailing in 2020, with sales breaking through from 4 digits to 5 digits, and even delivering 100,000. In the past year, Weilai's market value has soared more than 30 times, and even stepped on Mercedes-Benz.
Just last week, NIO announced its 2021 Q2 financial report, with auto sales of 7.9118 billion yuan, up 127.0% year-on-year and 6.8% month-on-month; revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, up 127.2% year-on-year and 5.8% month-on-month; and net loss attributable to common shareholders of 659 million yuan, narrowing by 45.4% year-on-year.
High sales growth and net loss are also decreasing, which is a good performance for a new energy vehicle company, especially in terms of sales, which is the most important data for investors.
No wonder Li Bin said, "In the high-end market field, we have not yet seen brands that can fully compete with WEILAI, including products, service systems, technologies, overall user experience and user communities." ”
This is the highlight moment of Li Bin and Weilai.
But Weilai is far from being "invincible in the world". In June, BMW ix3 sales hit a new high of 4,384 units, compared to the ES6's 3,589 more than nearly 800 units, you know that seven months ago, the ix3 was only a quarter of the ES6 sales.
From the perspective of consumer choice, when the price of traditional luxury new energy vehicles plummets, it can still grab a lot of market share of Weilai.
At present, among the traditional luxury car brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi, only BMW has lowered the price of new energy vehicles to lower than that of fuel vehicles, and sales are also the best among them. Then when Mercedes-Benz and Audi launch new models, the price will also be lowered to the level of fuel vehicles, and the so-called moat of Weilai will also be greatly impacted.
Weilai is not without opponents, but it is only because competitors are transforming, so that Weilai's products have a certain scarcity.
Moreover, the sales of Weilai's high-end models are not very good. The monthly sales of ES8 have not exceeded 2,000 units, and as a luxury brand, the most important thing is not the sales of its low-end models, but the sales of the highest-priced models, which determines the recognition in the minds of its consumers.
Obviously, at this point, Weilai did not achieve full marks.
The market for high-end cars has encountered ceilings, and gross profit margins have declined, prompting Li Bin to enter a broader market: NIO plans to launch a brand that is lower than Tesla's price to increase sales.
The launch of the new brand will pull down the gross profit margin, but from the scale may increase cash flow, increase profits, and help WEILAI to break even faster, and even profitable.
Therefore, Nio's high gross profit margin may have reached its highest point, and in the future, with the growth of sales and the introduction of more low-priced models, the gross profit margin will only continue to decline, and then stabilize in one position.
<h2>The test of the accident is here again</h2>
The new car has not yet been launched, and Weilai has been tested again.
On the evening of August 14, Lin Wenqin, the founder of Meiyihao Brand Management Company, 31 years old, had an accident after driving the NIO ES8 and activating the automatic driving function (NOP pilot status).
This is the second accident in half a month. At the end of July, a NIO EC6 caught fire after hitting a stone pier on the highway in Pudong, Shanghai, and the driver failed to escape the unfortunate death in time.
For these two accidents, the relevant person in charge of Weilai said, "NOP is not automatic driving, and the accident is currently in the investigation stage." ”
This can't help but remind people of the days more than a year ago, when Li Bin became the "most miserable person". On the afternoon of June 14, 2019, a NIO ES8 caught fire in Wuhan, fortunately it was extinguished in time without causing casualties, but this has been the third fire accident in two months of the NIO ES8.
At the same time, the enthusiasm of investors was extinguished, and Weilai's stock price continued to hit new lows, shrinking by 61.3%.
In the second half of 2019, 99% of people felt that Weilai could not hold out. "At that time, all the financing windows were closed", and even Li Bin himself admitted that choosing not to save Weilai was a reasonable decision, unless you can see far.
Later, it was the 12 billion yuan investment of the Hefei municipal government that saved Weilai at a critical moment and brought Li Bin to life.
More essentially, it is the support of Weilai car owners that makes investors see hope.
Intimate sales and after-sales so that Weilai has the first layer of moat, coupled with the price is lower than the ES8, but the technology is more advanced ES6 listing, pulling down the entry threshold of Weilai Automobile, so that more people can afford Weilai, 2019 Q4 ES6 accounted for 80% of the entire sales.
In 2019, NIO delivered 20,565 vehicles throughout the year, while the most critical Q4 delivered 8,224 vehicles, with an average price of 400,000 yuan per vehicle, returning nearly 3 billion yuan in cash. The growth of sales volume has made the capital market see the prospects of Weilai.
Also in 2019, a market leader of an independent high-end brand said that Weilai is a miracle, doing what Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi should do but did not do, independent brands sold more than 400,000, and there are actually people to buy, "user stickiness is still so high, this is worth learning from all of us." ”
Users and consumers supported Weilai through the most difficult time, and now, it is time for them to test Weilai.
User support is essentially support for the product, and when the safety of a car is questioned, users will vote with their feet.
Beyond security, of course, is technology. It depends on whether Nio Can Deliver a Satisfactory Answer sheet at NIO DAY this year. Counting the three new models within ET7, the new generation of NOP autonomous driving technology, the new battery technology, the TIMEly mass production of ET7, and the lower marginal cost, these indicators have become the key KP for WRAI to maintain competitiveness.
Although Weilai's ET7 is a configuration that is close to a million models on ABB, the high price of ET7 has buried a shadow on whether it can be accepted by the market.
It is understood that Weilai internally set the expected target of ET7 as a year? 1500 units, such a number is not as high as the sales of the ES8.
In the past few years, Weilai has become a representative of domestic luxury cars and new car-making forces. If Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi and other traditional luxury brand car companies think that the new energy vehicles, just turn the engine into a motor, then the success of Weilai, let them realize that the "new force" is not only to change the power, but also to new intelligence, new services, new culture, and such cars have a future.
But it is too early to say that "invincible".
Weilai's goal and ambition is to become a striking luxury car brand, as well as a leading full range of comprehensive car companies, but all of this is based on providing safe driving and control of technology, without these two points, any car-making company, whether it is a traditional brand, or a new force, is nothing more than paper talk, mirage.
This article is from Wall Street Insights, welcome to download the APP to see more