Haitong Securities: Gave Fuling Cai (002507.SZ) a "better than the market" rating, with a value range of 32.94-38.43 yuan

Zhitong Finance App learned that Haitong Securities released a research report saying that fuling squeezed vegetables (002507.sz) "better than the market" rating, is expected to be 0.77/1.1/1.31 yuan in 2021-23 EPS, with reference to comparable company valuations, giving it 30-35xpe for 22 years, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 32.94-38.43 yuan.

Event: 21q1-3 The company achieved a total operating income of 1.955 billion yuan, +8.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the mother of 504 million yuan, a year-on-year -17.9%; Among them, the company achieved a total operating income of 609 million yuan in the Q3 single quarter, +1.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the mother of 127 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -39.1%.

The main views of Haitong Securities are as follows:

Revenue improved sequentially and cash flow was good.

The total operating income of 21q3 under the high base was +1.3% year-on-year. 21q3 contract liabilities increased net sequentially by $0.14 billion to $147 million (+35.4% yoY). 21q3 Operating cash flow +15.9% year-on-year to RMB274 million.

The pressure on raw material costs appeared, and the gross profit margin of q3 was under pressure.

The company's Q3 gross margin was -7.27pct to 51.6% year-on-year, and the bank believes that the main reason is due to the cost of high-priced green vegetable heads in 21 years (the purchase price increased by 20-30% year-on-year). The bank expects that with the high-end product structure and the high cost price of green vegetable heads, the company's gross profit margin is expected to rebound in 22 years.

Continue to promote product promotion, and cost investment drags down net profit.

The 21q3 sales expense ratio was +13.85pct to 29.6% year-on-year, and the bank believes that the q3 product publicity expense increased by 0.56 billion yuan (21q1-3 added a total of 223 million yuan) mainly due to the company's strengthening of advertising expenses. 21q3 Management/R&D/Finance Expense Ratio was +1.50pct/-0.39pct/-3.64pct to 3.6%/0.2%/-4.9% year-on-year, respectively, and the overall period expense ratio was +11.33pct to 28.5% year-on-year. Affected by expense and cost pressures, the net profit margin was -13.88pct to 20.9% year-on-year. Looking ahead to next year, the company believes that the compression of selling expenses is expected to bring profit elasticity.

Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, channels sink, new product sales do not meet expectations, food safety problems.