Text: Caspian Sea (public number: fengkuanglihai)
Dear readers, I haven't seen you for a long time, I feel that the last time I posted it was a long time ago, haha! Mainly during this time, I was concentrating on collecting and sorting out the information of the three quarterly reports, and today I finally finished sorting it out.
Seeing the three quarterly reports of Fuling Squeezed Vegetables, I was really emotional!
In fact, Fuling squeezed vegetables rose quite well during this time, from the bottom up has been 30% + increase, before many readers came to ask me if I can read the bottom, here, let me talk about my opinions and opinions.
First, let's talk about our views on the three quarterly reports of Fuling Squeezed Vegetables.
The company achieved operating income of 1.955 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 8.73% year-on-year, of which the third quarter achieved revenue of 609 million yuan, an increase of 1.30% year-on-year. It is clear that the company has entered a phase of slow growth. No matter how it is adjusted, the overall slowdown is the current status quo.
From the common sense point of view, this kind of two or three yuan of squeezed vegetables, the sales volume of the terminal must be very smooth, so why in the company's financial data, each quarter will be so different? The answer lies in the dealer inventory, as long as the product reaches the dealer, it is sold out in the company, so the difference between the quarters is formed.
From the data point of view, the company's sales data is still slowly upwards, which is very realistic, and the net profit is not, the company achieved a net profit of 504 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 17.92%, and the third quarter to achieve a net profit of 127 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 39.07%, so let's see which factors led to the company's net profit decline so fast. From the perspective of the income statement, it is nothing more than the change in the gross profit margin and the change in the number of fees that lead to the change in the net profit.
Let's start with gross margins. From the first three quarters, it is not bad, the gross profit margin reached 57.05%, in 2020 it is 58.26%, so the difference of one point is not obvious, but, taken apart, it is a bit interesting. The gross profit margin at the semi-annual report this year was 59.49%, that is to say, the gross profit margin was dragged down by 2.5 percentage points in the 3rd quarter alone. On closer inspection, the gross margin in the third quarter has shrunk to 51.64%. So it's a very big drop. What is the reason? It's very simple, raw materials. This is to be familiar with the company's business model, the raw material of the squeezed vegetable is the head of the dish, in general, every year from November to February is the centralized acquisition period of the head of the dish, and the head of the first year is generally used in the second year, and the third quarter of this year is exactly the use of the head of the head harvested in November of the first year. Unfortunately, the price of vegetable heads last year was relatively expensive, according to my understanding, the price of vegetable heads purchased at the end of the first year and the beginning of this year reached about 1,000 pieces a ton, an increase of about 30% year-on-year. As a result, gross profit fell sharply in the third quarter.
Look at the three fees. The sharp decline in gross profit margin is actually good, if the three fees are less, they can be adjusted, but the three fees for squeezing vegetables are not as good as before.
Among them, management costs and consumption costs can be a large increase. Management expenses were 38.3 million yuan in the same period last year, and 56.61 million yuan this year, about 40%, while sales expenses rose from 283 million yuan to 519 million yuan, although the increase was only about 75%, but the absolute amount was too large, reaching more than 200 million yuan. Very worried about Fuling Vegetable Press Company, ah, such a huge amount of money smashed down, in the end can not play a role in pulling sales effect?
Fortunately, it has come back a lot by financial expenses, thanks to the increase of more than 3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, so the interest income is not cheap, and the financial expenses are 55 million yuan more than last year. Alas, without this revenue, this year's profit figures would be even bleak.
Finally, we pay attention to another data, that is, the contract liabilities that are paid in advance on behalf of dealers, which means that the money is paid first but has not yet been shipped, which is 147 million yuan in the third quarter of this year, compared with 109 million yuan in the same period last year, and 133 million yuan in half a year, which shows that there is no deterioration on the sales side.
Therefore, to sum up, the fundamental of the current squeezed vegetables is that revenue has entered a normal and slow growth trend, and due to the impact of three fees and gross profit margins, the high-speed growth of the profit side is unlikely in the short and medium term.
Second, let's talk about the impact of marginal changes on stock prices.
"The secondary market is often the emotional amplifier of marginal changes in fundamentals", what does this sentence mean? It is that the company may have some changes that will cause large fluctuations in the stock price of the secondary market. Just like Fuling Cai Cai in the past 5 years, the company's revenue has only more than doubled, but because of the continuous improvement of gross profit margin, the net profit has risen by 67 times, so the stock price has risen more than 10 times. And this time from the high point down, waist cut, in fact, for the company's operation is to make less money, the company has no big problems at all, or the first place in the vegetable industry, the asset-liability ratio is extremely low, and the cash flow is excellent. But the stock price was cut off. Therefore, this marginal change will not cause large fluctuations in the company's accounting assets, but it can cause large fluctuations in stock prices, and behind it is human nature.
Therefore, for investors like us who mainly rely on rising stock prices to make money, this marginal change needs to be carefully tracked.
What do I mean by that? From the perspective of the fundamentals and stock price of Fuling Cai Cai, the fundamentals are like that, and it is not very suitable for medium-term profits to continue to grow beyond expectations. However, the changes in the few factors that determine net profit in the short and medium term may be very large, so from the perspective of quarterly earnings, Fuling Cai May have entered a stage of high volatility in short-term profits. Implemented on the stock price, it is the high volatility of the stock price. It is possible that the performance of a quarter exceeds expectations, the stock price rises by dozens of points, it is possible that the performance of a quarter is lower than expected, and the stock price quickly falls by dozens of points. In fact, for the company of Fuling Cai Cai, this is the normal fluctuation of performance, but it is reflected in the stock price, that is, a moment in the sky, a moment underground.
Third, let's talk about when the stock in the form of Fuling Squeezed Vegetables will be able to bottom out.
This is implemented to the third point of this article, how to buy this kind of target to be comfortable? Obviously, I know very well that this company is not a big problem, but the stock price is really difficult to grasp. The large performance growth cycle is obviously not coming, and the short cycle fluctuates repeatedly. Therefore, in the early stage, even if the stock price of Fuling Juice fell below 30 yuan, I did not move. Why not move? First of all, my approach is to see the general trend, a shuttle. In a unilateral downward trend, a shuttle is obviously unrealistic, because you don't know how much the market will think the company is worth. If you think it's undervalued, the market will make the company even more undervalued, just like China Construction, you think 6pe is undervalued, and he will also let the stock price fall to 3pe. And whether from pb or pe, Fuling squeezed vegetables are not underestimated at present. So like the current situation of Fuling squeezed vegetables, if you want to buy, there are only two ways, first, divide the funds into many parts, the more you fall, the more you buy, second, if you have a steady stream of cash flow, a little bit to buy, if you look at it for a long time, the probability is still able to make money. And this way I do it is obviously not suitable.
The above is my view of the three quarterly reports of Fuling Juice and the current stock price fluctuations.
Finally, I sigh again, in this complex market, only by establishing a correct investment concept, and forming a set of play methods based on odds and probabilities, and forming your own system, can you survive and make money in this market for a long time.