The collective carnival of the new energy plate and the "Ning King" sets off the coldness and loneliness of the medical and health plate.
"In the deserted streets, empty homes, I was the only one who had a party."
The break of new stocks, the rejection of IPOs, the thunderous performance, the three major black swans have descended on the pond of the medical and health sector, which can not help but cause the market to ask: Is this the darkest moment of medical and health investment?
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="7" > First, new stocks will be broken as soon as they are listed, and Hong Kong stockization is inevitable? </h1>
The myth of the "undefeated golden body" on the first day of the IPO of an A-share pharmaceutical company was shattered.
Kefu Medical is remembered for the "first broken pharmaceutical stock" label, who ever thought that Chengda Biology, known as the "New Third Board White Horse", gave the lucky winners more than 20CM a big yin stick as soon as it opened, which completely made A-share investors also enjoy the sour feeling of Hong Kong stocks playing new friends "eating noodles".
These two vivid lessons are definitely not isolated cases, who will be next?
Polish your eyes.
Combined with the market conditions, reviewing the "recruits" of the two broken, the breaks are ultimately in three levels: fundamentals, valuations, and market environment changes, although pitiful, but by no means innocent.
Kefu Medical, also known as the "small fish leap" of A shares, is a household medical device manufacturer that is deeply tied to online traffic, and its main products include sphygmomanometers, blood glucose meters, wheelchairs, masks and gloves, disinfection supplies, thermometers, etc., and the net profit base in 2019 is only more than 100 million. The back story is a familiar routine, the company seized the opportunity of the epidemic, the company quickly achieved a profit scale of 400 million, there was such an event as a listing, raised a huge amount of funds of 4 billion; as the epidemic faded, is the profit growth sustainable in the past two years? How long can the current market value of 13 billion yuan last?
Chengda Biology seems to be more reliable, landing on the science and technology innovation board with the aura of "rabies vaccine leader" and "one of the few big white horses on the new third board", but it has suffered a deeper setback. At the same time, the problem also followed, and the earlier "diploid rabies vaccine" of the small leader Kanghua Biology, the two companies in recent years close to the rabies vaccine variety of single product, the follow-up reserve pipeline is also green and yellow, research and development capabilities have been questioned, and Kanghua Biology since last year's listing has fallen all the way, the current dynamic P/E ratio in 2021 is only 20 times, the issuance market value of Chengda Biology corresponds to 40 times the price-earnings ratio, and it encounters the expected third quarter financial data, "no rise" seems to have become the bottom line of market funds. But this does not affect the 55 New Third Board "Philatelic Party" to make a lot of money.
Fundamentals are limited, and valuations are falling short.
On September 18, the regulatory authorities issued new regulations on the inquiry of the two major registration sectors of science and technology and entrepreneurship, which actually increased the new share issuance quotation in disguise (encouraging institutions to quote according to reasonable values, and no longer need to deliberately reduce the quotation), resulting in a significant increase in the valuation of new stock issuance, and overdrafting the upside in advance.
Since the implementation of the new regulations, among the 23 new stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the ChiNext Board, 1 has been issued at a loss, and the remaining 22 have an average price-to-earnings ratio of 43.23 times. Before the new regulations, the average price-to-earnings ratio was only 30.49 times.
Finally, the essence of the new stock break is inseparable from the supply and demand mismatch between the excessive number of issuances under the registration system and the insufficient increase in stock funds, and perhaps you will suddenly find that today's Hong Kong stocks are the future of A shares.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="86" > two IPOs in a week have been rejected, has the primary market funds trembled? </h1>
On September 18 and September 22, the Listing Committee of the Science and Technology Innovation Board rejected the IPO of two medical and health companies, Haihe Pharmaceutical and Jikai Gene, respectively within one week, and the final reason was that the "science and technology content" was questioned.
Although the regulatory level has a new corresponding 4 criteria for judging the attributes of science and technology, the core of the real rejection has nothing to do with these standards.
Haihe Pharmaceutical is a Biotech company focusing on the discovery, development, production and commercialization of anti-tumor innovative drugs, the company involves 9 compounds in the research pipeline, covering c-MET, PI3Kα, ERK and other popular targets, of which 7 compounds are in the clinical research stage, and more than 15 clinical trials are being carried out at the same time, including three Phase 3 clinical trials and four Phase 2 clinical trials.
Behind the seemingly plump pipeline, only 1 of the company's 9 key pipelines is self-developed, a typical License in capital saving model, which has also been paid close attention by the Listing Committee.
It is such a company, with a total financing of more than 2.084 billion yuan in two rounds, attracting many well-known funds such as Hillhouse Capital, Warburg Pincus Investment, Legend Capital, Andagi Capital, and the valuation of the pre-IPO round exceeded 6 billion.
After the listing, it may also be turned over, such a high valuation, only the science and technology innovation board "people sa money duo" can undertake. For such a figure of 6 billion, for many Hong Kong stocks 18A Biotech, it is not a market value within reach, such as Genor Biotechnology, Deqi Pharmaceutical, and Platinum Pharmaceutical, the market value is below 6 billion yuan, which shows the "cruelty" of the Hong Kong stock market to License in Biotechnology.
Ji Kai Gene shed two lines of tears, forced to hold back the grief and said: "I am a shovel seller, and I have authorized so many pipelines, and I still have to question my science and technology attributes and technical content?" ”
As a leading medical achievement transformation platform in China, although the company is recognized by most investors in the market in the field of scientific research services, the company has many problems.
The main customer of the company's pillar business target screening and verification service is the research doctor (individual customer), through the business contract, email sales confirmation and other ways to determine the contractual relationship, there are certain contract defects; in the past three years, the company's net profit and gross profit margin have been declining, as well as the high sales expense rate, which has also aroused the attention of regulators; the final focus is on the core three technology platforms of GK (GRP platform, CHAMP platform and cell therapy platform) put forward the following questions. In fact, to put it bluntly, it is a whole bunch of professional terms, the specific core indicators are not disclosed, most people in the market can not understand, who can judge whether you really have core competitiveness?
In the face of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's Say No, how will the capital road of the two companies evolve? Are healthcare investment institutions in the primary market trembling?
Although the sci-tech innovation board can come back after half a year after it is rejected, the two companies are facing pressure on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is unlikely that they will sprint for science and technology.
GK Gene signed a VAM agreement with pre-IPO, if the A-share listing is not achieved at the end of 2022, the investor has the right to request a buyback, and it will be difficult for the company to catch up again.
The final ownership of Haihe Pharmaceutical is likely to be the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but in the face of a 6-month lock-up period after the regular listing of Hong Kong stock IPOs, will there be a series of riotous operations in order to allow investors to exit smoothly in the later stage? We'll see.
However, Jikai, Haihe, and the non-professional institutions that specialize in the Pre-IPO round have indeed sounded the alarm bell.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="87" >3. </h1>
This year's three quarterly reports of the medical and health sector, thunder continues, inexplicable sharp falls are everywhere.
The lack of expectations in a single quarter is not terrible, the terrible is unsustainable performance growth combined with the high valuation of listed companies, and the result is the saddest Davis double kill.
Today's plunge in Aibo Medical is not included in this list. In the first three quarters, Aibo Medical achieved operating income of 325 million yuan, an increase of 79% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother after deducting non-deductions was 124 million yuan, an increase of 85% year-on-year. The only flaw was that the company's single-quarter revenue in the third quarter increased by -2.68% quarter-on-quarter, and the non-net profit increased by -18.64% sequentially, which did not exceed market expectations.
Such an excellent overall performance, some people do not understand the company's financial report on the performance of the sharp decline, the answer is actually in the expected management of this discipline: "A student who often takes 95-100 points suddenly takes a 90-point test, may be tortured and punished by parents and teachers, and a student who often takes a 60-point test will suddenly get a strong reward for 80 points." ”
Excessive expectations are the unbearable pain of these growth stocks.
Today, the plunge of 20cm between Aladdin and Yaoshi Technology has also triggered panic among market investors, Aladdin is due to the impact of the company's ERP system, management and income tax expenses, Yaoshi Technology is limited in production capacity, affected by power rationing, etc., these are the short-term disturbance factors affecting the high growth of enterprises, short-term killing valuation is certain, but with the recovery of future growth, the overkill part will gradually recover.
The performance disclosure period in the third quarter, the time distance from the annual report and the first quarterly report disclosure period is the longest in the year, and friends who hold it patiently need to be patient to resist the cold winter they are experiencing.
Private investor Lin Yuan once mentioned the seven characteristics of monopoly: exclusive business, strong demand, stable gross profit, products do not bargain, strong brands, future profits are determined, and high entry thresholds.
In the context of funds being particularly sensitive to pharmaceutical policies, it is recommended to stay away from a series of companies such as the deterioration of the competitive landscape, the long-term suppression of policies, and the short-term lack of growth hopes for performance, and avoid the extreme situation of "killing more and killing more".
Avoid possible minefields and go to safer places.
Conclusion: Dickens said that this is the best of times, this is the worst of times.
And I believe that the spring of the recovery of the medical and health plate is on the way, but the premise is that it needs to survive the cold winter.
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