Moderator: Guan Shan (Guangdong Stock Market Broadcast FM95.3 "Into the Institutional Base Camp")
Guest: Wang Jing (Chief Strategist and Assistant Chief Investment Officer of Chuangjin Hexin Fund)
The third quarterly report of listed companies was disclosed, and the overall performance continued to maintain high growth, but some companies did not grow as expected. Wang Jing, chief strategist and assistant chief investment officer of Chuangjin Hexin Fund, believes that in the fourth quarter, the changes in energy prices will gradually squeeze the profits of the middle and lower reaches of the industry, and the overall market in the fourth quarter may not be strong in the main line, and the investment side should preferably choose high-growth and smooth policy industries.
Guan Shan: The disclosure of the third quarterly report of the listed company has been completed. Judging from the performance of the third quarter report, what guidance and inspiration can it bring to the investment in the fourth quarter?
Wang Jing, chief strategist and assistant chief investment officer of Chuangjin Hexin Fund: In terms of the current disclosure of the third quarterly report, the overall situation is relatively flat. Structurally, the upstream performance is still the fastest growing, the new energy in the midstream industry is basically in line with expectations, some industries are still squeezed by raw material prices, and the downstream consumption deviation. Some white horse stocks, most of the reported performance is lower than expected. In the financial sector, banks are slightly more than expected under relatively low expectations, and the brokerage sector is slightly lower than expected. Therefore, compared with the first quarterly report and the mid-report, the three quarterly reports are not so obvious to the market.
Although the upstream performance is good, in the current state of strong administrative suppression, both the futures price and the stock price are facing relatively large pressure, and it is difficult for investors to move against the policy. The logic and policy orientation of the new energy industry are relatively smooth, and the flaw is that the expectations are too full, the valuation is not low, and the requirements for growth will be more stringent. There are also some industries, like photovoltaics, facing cost pressure from rising raw material prices. The certainty of high performance growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period of the military industry is relatively strong, but the visibility of research is relatively low, so some investors do not like this industry very much.
In general, under the overall performance of a relatively flat performance, the market still chooses industries with high growth and smooth policies, new energy as the main direction, and the military industry is also quietly strengthening. The cyclical sector has also recently pulled back more, and the policy action is also very large, so short-term investors are more cautious, but it is still possible to have a certain performance in the fourth quarter.
Guan Shan: Since entering the fourth quarter, there have been many measures in terms of policy. In terms of monetary policy, there is a tendency to contract at home and abroad, and new guidelines for coal, electricity, and double carbon are intensively issued in industry policies. Which of the many policies need to pay close attention to their impact on investment?
Wang Jing, chief strategist and assistant chief investment officer of Chuangjin Hexin Fund: The trend of monetary policy has been expected before, so our main concern now is energy policy, whether supply assurance can be effectively implemented, and whether the gap between supply and demand in the next peak demand season can be effectively compensated. Because the principle of the policy is definitely to give priority to ensuring people's livelihood, if the market volume is not enough, it may continue to limit production in some high-energy-consuming industries, which will have a greater impact on economic growth and supply chains, and the downstream industry will also bear greater pressure on raw materials.
The second concern is real estate policy, the real estate industry is now facing the dilemma of financing difficulties and debt repayment difficulties, real estate sales and investment are relatively sluggish. The recent high-level statement is somewhat relaxed, or to promote the healthy development of the industry, there are some places where the credit for real estate has been loosened to a certain extent. The general direction should still control house prices, reduce the leverage ratio of the industry, and there will be no directional turn. We pay attention to the rhythm and degree of phased relaxation, which will have a certain supporting effect on real estate investment and sales next year. This will have a relatively large impact on the performance of the real estate chain industry.
Guan Shan: In terms of energy policy, recently the State Council has made it clear that it will take a series of measures to strengthen energy supply security, the National Development and Reform Commission has sent a number of investigation teams to carry out special investigations on coal price costs, and relevant parties have also revealed that to ensure energy supply, domestic coal production will increase by 55 million tons in the fourth quarter, at the same time, the on-grid electricity price of all coal-fired power generation will be liberalized in an orderly manner, and all coal-fired electricity in the five southern provinces and regions will be market-oriented in November. What impact will coal power supply and price linkage have on the cyclical industry?
Wang Jing, chief strategist and assistant chief investment officer of Chuangjin Hexin Fund: In the current situation, the energy supply gap mainly relies on thermal power, and the lack of coal supply leads to insufficient inventory of power plants on the one hand, on the one hand, coal prices do not rise, and power plants are willing to generate electricity. In the short term, the measures to increase coal production capacity and limit prices can have a certain effect on stabilizing the market, but in the context of carbon neutrality, the production capacity of coal will still shrink, the coal price center will rise, and the electricity price will not rise, which will affect the investment willingness of the power industry.
Recently, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangxi and other places to carry out electricity trading, the transaction price has reached the upper limit of 20% increase, electricity prices began to show cost transmission, smelting, chemical and other industries have a relatively large impact, these are upstream raw materials, their cost rise will be transmitted to the downstream, thereby affecting the profitability of the middle and downstream manufacturing industry.
Guan Shan: In the process of ensuring the supply of coal power, many investors are also thinking about how to deal with the relationship between fossil energy and the dual carbon policy. Recently, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on The Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak carbon neutrality", which systematically plans and deploys carbon peak carbon neutrality from the central level. What's the highlight? Considering the recent volatility of the energy market, what impact will it have on related industries?
Wang Jing, chief strategist and assistant chief investment officer of Chuangjin Hexin Fund: Recently, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on The Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Achieve Carbon Peak carbon neutrality", which gives a clearer goal for the entire energy structure adjustment rhythm, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in 2030 will reach about 25%, and the carbon emission per unit of GDP will drop by 65% compared with 2005, achieving carbon peak; in 2060, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach more than 80%.
This means that the dual control of energy consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will still be relatively large, and the growth of coal consumption will continue to be strictly controlled, and the adjustment of energy structure and industrial structure will be promoted through market-oriented measures:
1) Comprehensively promote the reform of electricity marketization, expand the scale of market-oriented transactions, and at the same time promote the reform of the power grid system, and clarify the market entity status of incremental distribution networks, microgrids and distributed generations mainly based on renewable energy consumption;
2) Actively develop green finance, set up monetary policy tools for carbon emission reduction, and guide banks and other financial institutions to provide long-term and low-cost financial support for green and low-carbon projects;
3) Improve fiscal and tax price policies and study tax policies related to carbon emission reduction;
4) Accelerate the construction and improvement of the national carbon emission trading market, and incorporate carbon sink trading into the national carbon emission trading market, which is expected to accelerate the realization of the social benefits of green electricity;
5) Accelerate the promotion of energy-saving and low-carbon buildings, and promote the development of building roof photovoltaic actions to promote the large-scale development of the BIPV industry.
This document marks the introduction of the top-level design of the carbon neutral carbon peak "1 + N" policy system, the contraction of fossil energy supply in the future is a long-term direction, the proportion of new energy is rapidly increasing, the transformation of power grids and energy storage should be supported by supporting construction to adapt to the characteristics of new energy power generation, and the market-oriented trading of green electricity will also enhance the return on investment of operators.
For the new energy industry chain, it is a long-term policy dividend; for traditional energy, the improvement of the long-term price center will also improve the profitability of enterprises; for high-energy-consuming industries, it is equivalent to carrying out supply-side reform, accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity, which is conducive to increasing the share of leading emission technology leaders.
Energy structure transformation, in the long run, will reduce energy prices, short-term energy prices will rise, for the middle and lower reaches of the industry will cause a squeeze on profits, resulting in the withdrawal of small and medium-sized enterprises, more favorable to the leader.
Guan Shan: Since entering the autumn, the recent heat of the value sectors such as consumption and finance has rebounded, is it the first choice for winter?
Wang Jing, chief strategist and assistant chief investment officer of Chuangjin Hexin Fund: The poor performance of the consumer sector this year is still due to the weakness of consumer data. We look at low-end consumption, and the recovery speed is very slow. The disturbance of the epidemic, and the second half of the year to limit the production of residents will have a negative impact and expectations, at present, the consumer sector is only after the valuation into a reasonable range, the stage of oversold rebound, it is difficult to have a trend upward opportunity.
The valuation of the financial sector is relatively low, the overall position is relatively low, some funds with relatively low risk preferences will be allocated, if the market falls, there is a certain defensive value, but finance also has a strong economic correlation, and the probability of seeing a sustained upward trend in the short term is not large.
Guan Shan: Will value and growth in the fourth quarter be rotated or two-wheeled?
Wang Jing, chief strategist and assistant chief investment officer of Chuangjin Hexin Fund: I think it is still a partial rotation, we are still in the second half of the price increase, facing a part of the decline in demand, and the price rises due to supply reasons, and the upstream price begins to transmit to the downstream. That means that only ultra-high growth can resist the decline in overall demand, or the supply and demand structure is particularly good, the price increase is smooth industries, can enjoy high profit growth; or the downstream demand is good, the upstream price increase immune varieties. However, compared with the second and third quarters, the growth opportunities may be more concentrated. Undervalued value stocks have a valuation switch in the fourth quarter and will also perform appropriately. Overall, the market in the fourth quarter may not be strong in the main line.
(Wang Jing: Chief Strategist and Assistant Chief Investment Officer of Chuangjin Hexin Fund.) Master of Peking University, 11 years of experience in the fund industry, has successively worked for SDIC UBS Fund and Chuangjin Hexin Fund, serving as the head of equity trading and the assistant chief investment officer, engaged in market strategy research. ）