One of Liu Yanchun's funds was forced to significantly reduce its positions in response to redemption.
At present, there are only two fund managers with a fund management scale of hundreds of billions of yuan in the market: Zhang Kun of E Fangda and Liu Yanchun of Invesco Great Wall.
PreviousWe talked about Zhang Kun's third quarter position and observation of the market, one of the "100 billion top streams", "Zhang Kun's management of E Fund Three Quarterly Report: Increase Tencent, JD.com, reduce meituan, Ali".
Today let's take a look at another big guy - Liu Yanchun.
First, the panic selling behavior of the basic people has increased
Liu Yanchun joined inflex great wall in January 2015.
As of the end of September, the size of the six funds under management under its management totaled 102.9 billion, down about 13.4 billion from 116.3 billion at the end of June.
Among them, the third largest mix of performance growth fell the most, about 4.1 billion, a decline of 29.7%. The decline in outperform growth from 1 July 2021 to 30 September 2021 was 13.8%, indicating that about 16% of the decline was caused by the withdrawal of investment by the base people.
(Note: Source Choice, Change in Share of The Performance Growth Hybrid Fund)
Since June, the fund's redemption share has exceeded the fund's subscription share, and at the end of September 2021, the gap between the redemption share and the subscription share has widened further.
It was followed by the largest emerging growth mix, down nearly 4 billion, or 6.8 percent. But the difference is that the Emerging Growth Blend fell by 11.8% between July 1 and September 30, indicating that the money that entered the fund during the decline range was greater than the withdrawal.
(Note: Source Choice, Emerging Growth Hybrid Fund Share Change)
However, compared with historical data, the gap between the subscription share and the redemption share of the emerging growth mix has a gradual narrowing trend from the middle of 2021, which reflects the gradual dissipation of the aura of the big guy, and the basic people are running towards new energy funds with higher yields.
The second-largest Dingyi Blend also fell by 2.7 billion yuan, and similar to the Emerging Growth Mix, the subscription share during the period was greater than the redemption share, and the gap was narrowing, and even by the end of September 2021, the subscription share during the period was almost equal to the redemption share during the period.
(Note: Source Choice, Dingyi Hybrid Fund Share Change)
Since these 3 funds were all more than 10 billion at the end of the second quarter and ranked in the top three of Liu Yanchun's management fund size, we will focus on analyzing these 3 funds below.
Liu Yanchun's three major funds have fallen less overall in the past three months, while they have all fallen by more than 13% in the past 6 months.
The worst performer was the Performance Mix, down 14.31% in the past six months and down 2.06% in the past year, which was established in July 2019 and was relatively short on the other two funds.
The total size of the fund disclosed in the third quarter was 102.9 billion, just as the previous statement, if the scale continues to decrease, not only Zhang Kun's 100 billion scale may not be guaranteed, Liu Yanchun's 100 billion scale may face the same problem.
Second, still "take medicine and drink": heavy warehouse liquor, greatly increase the number of cangmei group
Similar to Zhang Kun, liu Yanchun's overall position in the three funds remained above 90%, and the two people were in agreement on the future market and were more optimistic.
Among them, the position of the emerging growth mix increased the most, and the top ten holdings of the fund maintained the attitude of increasing their positions or holdings unchanged: the Midea Group was greatly increased, followed by Wuliangye, Haida Group, Mindray Medical, and China Zhongli. Guizhou Moutai, Gujing Tribute Wine and Luzhou Old Cellar also have a certain range of warehouses.
Dingyi mixed with Wuliangye, Mindray Medical and Haida Group, Guizhou Moutai and China Zhongwai also added a small warehouse, and slightly reduced the luzhou old cellar.
In this way, yesterday's fall and stop in China was estimated to have caused Liu Yanchun to suffer internal injuries.
It is interesting to have a mixed repositioning of excellent growth, and its top ten holdings have all reduced their positions.
Among them, the largest reduction is In Luzhou Laojiao, in addition, Tencent Holdings, Meituan, Guizhou Moutai, WuXi AppTec, Wuliangye, China Zhongwai, etc. all have more than 14% of the reduction action. Mindray Medical, WuXi Biologics and Gujing Gongjiu have reduced their positions by an average of about 8%.
The target of the mix of high-performance growth is Liu Yanchun's increase in the other two major funds.
As mentioned above, the performance growth mix began in mid-2021, and the redemption share during the period began to reverse the trend, and by the end of September, the redemption share of the base people during the period reached 2.148 billion shares, and the subscription share was only 915 million, and the redemption share accounted for 39% of the total share.
The mixed performance growth positions remained above 93% at the end of June and the end of September. That is to say, when Jimin redeems the fund, Liu Yanchun can only sell part of his position to maintain the liquidity of the funds.
Therefore, in the reverse operation of the performance growth mix and the first two major funds, Feng Yunjun feels that Liu Yanchun's operation is a passive reduction.
But even if it is a passive reduction, the proportion of luzhou old cellar reduction is the highest, close to 60%. Among the top ten stocks held by Dingyi Mix, only Luzhou Laojiao, which has the heaviest position, has been reduced, but in the emerging growth mix, the number of Luzhou old cellar shares has increased by 3%, which really makes FengYunjun scratch his head.
Overall, similar to Zhang Kun, Liu Yanchun still prefers liquor, the first largest holding stock in the 3 major funds is Luzhou Laojiao or Maotai, and Wuliangye has also existed in the top five stocks for a long time.
In addition to liquor, from Liu Yanchun's position adjustment action, his large-scale purchase of Midea Group, the number of shares held reached 240 million.
At the same time, he is optimistic about the pharmaceutical industry, such as Mindray Medical, which has more than 13% of its holdings in the two major funds, and with the gradual recovery of the epidemic, it has also slightly increased its holdings in China Zhongwei, and also increased its holdings in the aquaculture industry.
In addition, in the third quarterly report, Liu Yanchun also expressed his views on the future, which specifically talked about the risks faced by real estate investment.
In addition, for the short-term fluctuations of the market, Liu Yanchun said that in the long run, this is just a small wave, can not set off many waves, the error will eventually be corrected by the market.
And for industries and individual stocks that are damaged by rising costs, falling demand, and policy disturbances, they believe that the opportunities in the current market lie.
This is the main reason why Liu Yanchun has significantly increased his holdings in Midea Group and 2 medical stocks.
However, in the short term, Liu Yanchun's heavy consumption and medical sectors have not performed well this year.
From the data on the rise and fall of the beginning of the year to the end of September obtained on wind, it can be seen that the top few increases are basically basic chemicals, coal, steel, power equipment, public utilities and other industries, while the main consumer industry in Liu Yanchun's fund also lost 4.8%, ranking fifth from the bottom of the sector.
(Source: Wind)
If Liu Yanchun is "success is also Xiao He, defeat is also Xiao He", Feng Yunjun feels that it is still too early.
After all, A shares have always had some specific sectors in a certain period of time that will rise sharply and lead the trend, but they will eventually return to value, and Liu Yanchun hopes that the foundation will look at the market shocks with a long-term perspective.
Can Liu Yanchun successfully pass this test of the market and regain the confidence of the vast number of basic people? Fengyunjun follow-up goodbye.