Humiliated by the United States and Australia, France began to engage in the indo-Pacific "small circle" | Kyo Brewery

On October 31, on the sidelines of the G20 summit, Macron spoke to an Australian reporter and accused Australian Prime Minister Morrison of lying about the nuclear submarine contract. Video/ Beijing News Our video "World" column

One of the biggest highlights of the just-concluded G20 Rome summit was how the leaders of the United States, France and Australia interacted with the leaders of the United States, France and Australia after Australia tore up the tens of billions of dollar submarine contracts signed with the French Naval Group.

Speaking with French President Emmanuel Macron, U.S. President Joe Biden acknowledged that the U.S. approach in the incident was "somewhat clumsy" and "lacking in demeanor," and even said that his ancestors were French. Australian Prime Minister Morrison, on the other hand, went forward to talk to Macron when he was talking to others, and also patted Macron's shoulder to show affection, which resulted in Macron's cold eyes.

Cold eyes are relatively only one aspect. France, which was actually humiliated by the United States and Australia and excluded from the United States, Britain, and Australia Trilateral Security Partnership Mechanism (AUKUS), also began to engage in its own Indo-Pacific "small circle" at the G20 summit.

The French presidential palace recently issued a statement saying that Macron met with Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Indian Prime Minister Modi during the G20 Rome summit. France and Indonesia have decided to establish a "true strategic partnership" in the Indo-Pacific region, while France and India are determined to further advance the Indo-Pacific strategy, for which the two countries will hold a strategic dialogue.

Why is France so sensitive and proactive about the Indo-Pacific? Why did you choose India and Indonesia to engage in "small circles"?

France considers itself a great power in the Indo-Pacific region

Since the emergence of the Indo-Pacific strategy, France has always emphasized that it is also a major country in the Indo-Pacific region.

The reason is that France has territory in the Indo-Pacific region. In the Indian Ocean, France has Indian Ocean islands; in the South Pacific, France has french New Caledonia, French Polynesia and other overseas territories.

These overseas possessions were seized by france during the colonial period, and some of the islands were used by French exiles in the past – as in Australia. Now, the descendants of these people, plus the descendants of indigenous peoples, have a total population of about 3 million people.

Although most of these French overseas possessions are unfamiliar to the outside world, the potential economic benefits are enormous. Thanks to the existence of these islands, France has the second largest exclusive maritime economic zone in the world – 11 million square kilometers. Of these, 9 million square kilometers are in the Indo-Pacific region.

This gave France an incentive to join in the Indo-Pacific. In February this year, the French "Ruby" class nuclear submarine "Emerald" and the submarine support ship "Senna" ran to the South China Sea to brush their sense of existence; in April, a month after the formation of the "Quad) mechanism of the "Quad" security dialogue between the United States, Japan, India and Australia, France and these four countries conducted the "La Bellus" maritime joint military exercise in the Bay of Bengal, becoming the first country to participate in the quad mechanism military operation; in May, France and the United States, Japan, and Australia conducted the "Arc 21" land joint military exercise in the East China Sea. The French army also conducted a targeted "island seizure" exercise with a total of 160 members of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.

France originally said, "I would have had my heart set on the bright moon," but the result was that "the bright moon shone in the ditch, and the United States and Australia jointly played a trick on the submarine list. This forced France to look for other allies in the Indo-Pacific. The reason for choosing Indonesia and India is also for its reasons.

Relations between Indonesia and Australia were not friendly

Compared with India, Indonesia is really the most likely to reach a "real strategic partnership" with France. The reason is that Indonesia and Australia do not have good relations.

The cause was the independence of East Timor. East Timor was occupied by Portugal during the colonial period and did not declare independence until 1975, only to be occupied by Indonesia just nine days after independence. Since then, the East Timorese have always wanted independence and have been strongly suppressed by Indonesia. Australia, which is separated from East Timor by a Timor Sea, supports East Timor's independence. Relations between Indonesia and Australia have become strained over the incident, and the two countries have terminated an agreement to jointly exploit oil and gas resources in the Timor Sea.

After the outbreak of the Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997, Indonesia was hit hard and desperately needed Western assistance. The West took the opportunity to put pressure on Indonesia, and the United Nations intervened in all aspects, and by 2002 East Timor finally became independent.

Since then, both Indonesia and Australia have regarded each other as one of their biggest geopolitical rivals, and relations have not improved. After the U.S. and Australian nuclear submarine deals came to light, Indonesia publicly expressed concern.

France's military cooperation with Indonesia has been intensifying. In June, France and Indonesia signed a defense cooperation agreement, and France sold 36 Rafale fighter jets and Scorpene-class submarines to Indonesia, laying the foundation for the development of a "true strategic partnership" between the two countries.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Infographic. Photo: Xinhua News Agency

India befriended France over the "South Asian nuclear crisis"

As for India, in fact, relations with France were strained in the past. Because France sold Mirage fighter jets to Pakistan.

In 1998, after India and Pakistan conducted successive nuclear tests, triggering the "South Asian nuclear crisis", the international community condemned it one after another, and France expressed its understanding for India. Since then, relations between the two countries have heated up rapidly. In that year, France and India formed a "strategic partnership".

India is a corner of the Indo-Pacific strategy, and naturally it is the object of France's efforts to win over. Ironically, when France and Australia still had submarine orders, France wanted to build a small triangular alliance of France, India and Australia. After being teased by Australia, this little triangle collapsed.

So now, Indonesia can make up for the missing corner, can France form its own "small circle" in the Indo-Pacific region?

Nice words are easy to say, but it is not easy to do. On the one hand, whether France's economic strength can support the "small circle" is a problem, from the current situation, more like a "small circle" of France selling arms to India and Indonesia; on the other hand, France, India, and Indonesia are not monolithic, for example, India has always been suspicious of France's bets on both sides of India and Pakistan.

More importantly, the existing Quad and AUKUS mechanisms in the Indo-Pacific region cannot play any strategic role except for the strength of joint military exercises, the show of "unity", and the "gray area" tactics.

In this way, even if the "small circle" of France is set up, what can it do?

Contributing Writer | Xu Lifan (Columnist)

Edit | Xu Qiuying

Proofreading | Chen Diyan