Editor's note: Central Asia is known as the "heartland" of the world's islands. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asia became an important geopolitical plate emerging within the US strategy. After the events of 9/11, the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan rose to the top of U.S. foreign policy, and the strategic importance of Central Asia grew. This article will introduce the three stages of the evolution of the US Central Asia strategy, analyze the current strength and influence of the United States in Central Asia, and further propose the possibility of Cooperation between China and the United States in this region based on their respective strategic interests under the current threat of terrorist forces in Central Asia, and jointly build a new strategic pattern in Central Asia.
<H1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > the evolution of U.S. strategy in Central Asia</h1>
The first phase can be called version 1.0 of the U.S. strategy for Central Asia. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Central Asia became an emerging geopolitical sector. The United States has taken advantage of the void to fill the vacuum of geopolitical power. At that time, the policy objectives of the United States were, first, to deal with some matters related to the collapse of the Soviet Union, first of all, the control and destruction of weapons of mass destruction, which in Central Asia was mainly aimed at the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the smuggling of nuclear materials in Kazakhstan; and secondly, to control energy production bases and their sales, and to try to get the energy exports of the Central Asian countries out of Russian control. In the Soviet era, because Central Asia was located in the eurasian interior and far from the international markets of Europe and the United States, almost all of the export routes of Central Asian oil and gas resources led to Moscow. Moscow buys Central Asia's oil and gas resources at low prices and sells them to countries such as Europe or China to earn a median price. Despite the complaints of the Central Asian countries, there is nothing they can do, which is an important reason for The high dependence of Central Asia on Russia.
To help Central Asian countries wean themselves off their dependence on Russia, the United States is also planning to build oil and gas pipelines that bypass Russia, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline (BTC). The pipeline manages to transport crude oil from Azerbaijan and parts of Central Asia through the Transcaucasian countries to the Mediterranean coast and into the European market. This is the second longest oil and gas pipeline in the former Soviet Union. Russia has been harshly critical of the BTC pipeline. In "The Great Chess Game," Brzezinski bluntly articulated the strategic purpose of the United States to encourage the construction of BTC pipelines. Another oil and gas pipeline was also planned by the Americans, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline (TAPI). When the project is completed, Turkmenistan natural gas will be transported through the provinces of Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. To this end, the "Central Asia Natural Gas Pipeline Group" headed by the United States Uniq was also established. The TAPI pipeline and the BTC pipeline share the same purpose of trying to get Central Asia's oil and gas resources to bypass Moscow's control and be shipped to other energy buyers.
At that time, the U.S. policy toward Central Asia had other goals, such as achieving a system of separation of powers, democratic constitutionalism, economic transformation of the market economy, and trying to free Central Asia from dependence on Russia. But at this time, Central Asia was not the focus of the US foreign strategy and did not become a high political field for the United States. Together with the six eastern European countries of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, it is treated as a geopolitical plate of the post-Soviet space, so the classification of U.S. diplomatic decision-making bodies basically follows the diplomatic and security management structure of the former Soviet Union, and the affairs of Central Asia and Transcaucasia are managed by the Eurasian Bureau.
The second stage was that after the events of 9/11, the priorities of the United States' foreign decisions were broken. The change in U.S. policy toward Central Asia can be called version 2.0 of the U.S. Central Asia Strategy. At that time, the United States began to carry out large-scale military operations in Afghanistan, and there was an urgent need to lease military bases in Central Asia to match the logistical supply of Afghan military operations, which was the first time that American hard power had entered Russia's sphere of influence. Several military bases are well known, the most famous being Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan and Hannabad Air Base in Uzbekistan. There are other NATO members that have followed the United States into Central Asia. The military strength of manas base is about 3,000 people, while the military base in Uzbekistan is about 1,500 people. The United States also has an air base in Almaty, Kazakhstan, and a base in Kulibuya, Tajikistan. The total number of U.S. troops stationed in Central Asia is about 6,000.
This is the entry of troops from other countries in Central Asia in addition to the Russian army in modern times. Central Asia has also become an open region militarily. U.S. policy toward Central Asia is entirely based on Afghanistan, and U.S. interests in Central Asia are an extension of Afghanistan's strategic interests. The United States itself has no close national interests in Central Asia. This is different from China. China's implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative has generated many strategic interests in Central Asia, including overseas security interests, because China has many infrastructure projects in Central Asia, while the United States has no problem. America's most important strategic interest in Central Asia is these military bases, which were established to support military operations in Afghanistan. It is in this sense that Central Asia has changed from a low-political realm to a high-political realm. To this end, the United States has made some compromises, no longer requiring Central Asian countries to promote democracy, freedom, and human rights, which are the core ideas of American values, as they have done before, and also acquiescing to some of the political conservatisms that appear in Central Asian countries, including family rule and high centralization. The United States has paid the price of sacrificing the concept of value in exchange for the acquiescence of the Central Asian countries to the military entry of the United States.
The third phase is the post-Afghan era, when the U.S. Central Asia strategy was upgraded to version 3.0. An important promise Obama made in office was to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. But the situation in Afghanistan has not allowed the U.S. military to escape. The government of Kabul has limited control, with much of the area controlled by the Taliban. If U.S. troops withdraw, Afghanistan is likely to be back under Taliban control. This means a complete political defeat for the United States, and all Afghan investments, including nearly $700 billion in spending and 23,000 casualties, have finally disappeared, just to prove that Afghanistan is once again the name of "imperial graveyard". Obama, of course, would not willingly accept this outcome, so the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan was delayed. After Trump took office, he had no time to take care of Afghan affairs. In 2017, there were still about 11,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. If U.S. troops are withdrawn now, the reconstruction of the country and the maintenance of power in Afghanistan will become a major problem. The Afghan Government's control is rather weak, and much of the south is under Taliban control. The Taliban's combat effectiveness is also improving, and even imitating the US military to create a US special forces. The stabilization of the situation in northern Afghanistan is also based on a fragile coalition of northern warlords. Much of it borders Central Asia. Terrorist forces have been very active in this area. The Fergana Basin, not far from the Afghan border and bordering Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, is a fragment of Eurasian civilization. It is the "powder keg" of central Asia and the cradle of terrorist forces. The Uzbek terrorist organization UUI once tried to establish a religious regime in the Fergana Basin. Tajikistan also has a high-influence terrorist organization, the Islamic Liberation Party, which once held local power. Recently, the new terrorist organization "Islamic State" is also plotting to enter Central Asia, claiming to open a "second front" in Central Asia. The SCO has played a great role in counter-terrorism cooperation and in maintaining stability in the Central Asian region. Although the member states have differences in the definition and judicial interpretation of terrorism, they are fully united in their fundamental positions against terrorism and religious extremism, and the SCO has held a number of counter-terrorism exercises, effectively curbing the expansion of terrorism in the Central Asian region.
<h1 class = "pgc-h-arrow-right" > emphasis on the use of central Asian soft power</h1>
So far, the evolution of the United States strategy toward Central Asia has gone through three stages, and the basis of its strategic considerations has changed several times. In the early days of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the main line of preventing nuclear proliferation, influencing the direction of energy supply, and encouraging the Central Asian countries to move towards a democratic and open society was to prevent Central Asia from becoming a closed region again and tightly controlled by Russia. The 9/11 incident and the war in Afghanistan interrupted the strategic thinking of the United States. To that end, the United States has forged an anti-terrorist cooperation alliance with Russia and Central Asian countries. By the post-War period in Afghanistan, the influence of factors such as Afghanistan and energy on the U.S. Central Asia strategy was declining. The United States is not worried about Central Asia falling into Russia's arms. Given the current state of development in Central Asia and the decline of Russia's countries, it is extremely difficult for Russia to control all of Central Asia. TheRefore, the United States has placed Central Asia in a broader perspective. The United States has shifted from focusing on hard power intervention in Central Asia to using soft power. U.S. economic assistance to Central Asia is very limited, with a focus on nurturing pro-American Central Asian political and cultural elites, most of whom study in the United States or Europe. The political elite, mainly the relatives of the presidents of Central Asian countries and the core members of their interest groups, returned to china to hold important positions after completing their studies. The main mission of the cultural elite is to spread Western values. With non-governmental organizations as the carrier and social welfare as the starting point, they are active at the grass-roots level of society and vigorously expand the influence of the soft power of American culture.
In contrast, the United States' soft power in Central Asia is stronger than its hard power. It has brought to Central Asia the concepts and values of modern civilized society. Central Asia is one of the most closed and backward regions in the world, largely at a pre-industrial level. Central Asia has also historically been a zone of clash of civilizations. How many races and ethnic groups have mixed and fought in Central Asia, so that there are rivers of blood and bones. Tsarist Russia conquered the countries of Central Asia. The Soviet Union, in turn, molded Central Asia as an integral part of the Soviet system and brought with it a certain modernity, especially in terms of secularization, almost stripping central Asian of its religious roots. Until now, the countries of Central Asia, although They belong to the Islamic state, lack religious fanaticism, and Central Asia is already a secular state in essence. Nevertheless, during the Soviet period, Central Asia was closed to the outside world. The international community does not understand the Central Asian region, and the Central Asian countries are also ignorant of the outside world.
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of the Central Asian countries have formed a "black hole" in Eurasia, requiring the outside world to shine the dawn of civilization into it. China took the lead in delivering the fruits of material civilization to Central Asian countries in a timely manner through the "Shanghai Five" and "SCO" mechanisms. The United States, on the other hand, brought with it the fruits of spiritual civilization, a different kind of modernity from the Soviet Union, and demonstrated the unique charm of cultural soft power, including respect for the status of women, advocacy for human rights and the rule of law.
One of the topics at the meeting was whether China and the United States could cooperate in a third party. China and the United States have already engaged in third-party cooperation in Africa. Central Asia should also become an ideal region for U.S.-China third-party cooperation. China and the United States share a common strategic vision in Central Asia, which is to ensure the openness and modernity of central Asia. There is no fundamental conflict of strategic interest between China and the United States in Central Asia. The strategic presence of China and the United States in Central Asia is complementary and can serve as each other's teammates. This is a rare strategic pattern.
We must recognize the influence of the United States in Central Asia and not easily criticize the influence of the United States in Central Asia. In fact, the United States is an important factor in maintaining security and stability in Central Asia and maintaining the balance of power among the major powers in Central Asia. The reason is that in this region, the main opponents of the United States are Islamist extremist groups and terrorist forces. The logic of the United States against terrorists is simple and effective, using bombs directly to eliminate them. The heads of some terrorist organizations in Central Asia were wiped out in Afghanistan by U.S. bombs. These terrorist organizations have also largely lost their vitality. Without the United States sending troops to Afghanistan, Afghanistan would certainly become a hiding place for terrorist forces. Since the Taliban government controls state power in the form of a political power, it is even more destructive to civilized society. Terrorist forces in Central Asia are often associated with religious extremist forces, backed by Arab Islamic extremism; What a crisis it would be if Islamic extremism in the three regions were to join forces and even take power! What a threat to China's northwestern frontier regions! We would like to thank the United States for its decisive use of troops to curb the rise and expansion of terrorism in this geopolitical zone.
In the long run, we should use the influence of the United States to maintain or expand China's influence in Central Asia and make it an organic part of the international community. China and the United States should have a consensus on two points: First, oppose terrorism, oppose religious extremism, maintain security and stability in Central Asia, and promote the development and prosperity of Central Asia. The second is to balance the influence of other major powers in Central Asia, beware of Central Asia becoming an "exclusive geopolitical region" exclusive to the interests of any major country, and re-isolate the country. In this way, the "Silk Road" economic belt will be broken. Although the United States has its interests pursued there, it has objectively maintained an open posture and a balance of power in Central Asia. This is good for China. The Belt and Road Initiative is China's grand strategy for foreign economic cooperation, which requires the participation and cooperation of all parties. As the number one economic power, the United States has no reason not to cooperate with it. The key is to find a point where the interests of both sides fit. There is no doubt that although Afghanistan's strategic position is declining, the United States has an army of tens of thousands of people there, and it is impossible to go and is in a dilemma. The United States very much wants China to participate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan and to cooperate in combating terrorism, drug trafficking and cross-border crime, so as to ensure that Afghanistan will remain what the United States expects it to be after the withdrawal of U.S. troops. For the United States, China has geopolitical convenience and abundant economic resources in resolving the Afghan issue, while the US mainland is far from Afghanistan, and the resources available are quite limited. The United States has been participating in military operations abroad for a long time, which is originally a taboo for soldiers. Therefore, the United States needs China's help to shrink its forces as soon as possible and get out of the bitter sea.
On the Afghan issue, China does not have the same urgent strategic interests as the United States, but it must be noted that Afghanistan is close to China's western frontier. China and Afghanistan have a 92-kilometer border at the eastern end of the narrow Wakhan Corridor. Under the strict defense of China and neighboring countries, Terrorism in Afghanistan may not be able to directly harm China, but Afghanistan's neighboring countries are basically very poor and backward, and the regime is unstable. If the "three forces" accumulate and spread to these countries, causing political instability in them, it will endanger the entire surrounding areas of western China and spread this instability to the domestic frontier areas. Moreover, Afghanistan itself is in an important area of the "Belt and Road", and its geostrategic importance is self-evident. If we rely on each other through U.S.-China cooperation, we will jointly assist in the reconstruction and governance of Afghanistan with our respective political-military and economic strengths. It's a win-win situation.
It should be noted that in Central Asian affairs, our consideration of issues tends to be biased towards the economic sphere, which is a bit simplistic. In fact, Central Asia is also a cultural region, and it is a very complex cultural region. Historically, various civilizations have poured into Central Asia to fight and kill, which is extremely tragic. At present, the civilization ecology in Central Asia is formed by history, and there is a huge gap with Chinese civilization. If Chinese use their own wealth and wealth to rush into Central Asia in their own way of doing things, act independently, do not know how to respect local customs and habits, and do not win the "hearts" of the local people, then even if the basic projects are done a lot and the capital investment is large, their influence will not last. In the field of culture, there should be a commonality between China and the United States, that is, to promote the Central Asian region to step into modern civilized society, and not to regress to the barbaric state of the Middle Ages. Only a secularized modern civilization can resist religious extremism and eradicate the soil of terrorism. In this regard, Russia's role cannot be ignored. Only when the three major powers of China, the United States and Russia work closely together and maintain consensus on major issues can the Central Asian region avoid the fate of fragmentation and have a better future. Conversely, if The Central Asian region of China, the United States, Russia and Central Asia are caught in a vicious struggle, the Central Asian region may become a fragmented area of civilization on the Eurasian continent.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > some thoughts on U.S. strategy in Central Asia</h1>
1. It must be recognized that U.S. influence in Central Asia is a balancing factor in maintaining stability in Central Asia. U.S. strategic goals in Central Asia are largely in line with China's strategic interests. In the current policy ranking of the United States, the opponents of the United States against Central Asia are first of all terrorism, especially the instability in the northern region, which threatens the stability of Central Asia, and the Fergana area, where terrorism has gathered and made a comeback. This is followed by Russia, which is the historical inertia of Soviet competition. The United States is not very worried about Russia's own declining economic power and declining influence over Central Asia, but the presence of the United States maintains openness and balance in Central Asia. The third is the leaders of the Central Asian countries. The values of these leaders deviate from the United States. To this end, the United States will have some countermeasures. Military prowess is the most useful trump card, but it will not be played easily, mainly in Afghanistan and deterrence actions, mainly against terrorism. The U.S. economy is also limited because Central Asia is not a U.S. priority and the importance of energy supplies is declining. As a result, the United States has devoted more effort to soft power, using the modernity of American culture to strengthen its personal influence on The political elite in Central Asia. On the other hand, the United States uses limited economic resources to lobby Central Asian interest groups to ensure that Central Asia does not become an anti-American region.
2. China should use the influence of the United States to continue to maintain and expand Its influence.
At present, in Central Asia, China and the United States have not yet become competitors, and They are teammates in balancing the influence of major powers with the fight against terrorism. Of course, after the "Belt and Road" was proposed, China's expansion momentum in Central Asia was somewhat, but the United States is still under evaluation. The United States believes that the "Belt and Road" is similar to the New Silk Road in the United States. The United States wants China to have a common interest in rebuilding Afghanistan and combating terrorism and cross-border drug trafficking. The United States needs China's economic resources to achieve its strategic goals. China will need to use U.S. influence in Central Asia to advance its economic interests. We must pay full attention to the influence of the United States, especially its cultural values. The biggest problem in Central Asia is inadequate development, the pre-modern state, the modernity of the country's political life and the lack of a modern machine for economic development, which provides space for the rise of the three forces, especially religious extremist forces. Once the major powers get out of control of Central Asia, the three forces will inevitably make a comeback. Because Central Asia is geopolitically linked to Transcaucasia, the Middle East, and the Middle East, the fragility of Central Asia will lead to a carnival of Islamism in the surrounding region. Therefore, the existence of the United States in Central Asia provides a stable political environment for China's Belt and Road Initiative, and China can use the influence of the United States to strengthen the work of the central Asian intellectual elite and family forces, paying special attention to the people-to-people connection at the grass-roots level.
3. China should appropriately adjust its policy toward Central Asia in order to coordinate its policy objectives with that of the United States.
China's policy towards Central Asia is as follows: First, to ensure the stability of the western border, to solve the demarcation of the border with the Central Asian countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and later extended to combat the three forces, the main framework of cooperation is the SCO. The second is to acquire an energy supply base in Central Asia and enjoy priority in the development of other resources. This cooperation is mainly based on bilateral frameworks. The third is to promote Central Asia to become an international gateway and international market for the opening up of the western region, extending to countries along the "Belt and Road".
China's entry into Central Asia is cautious, limited to official cooperation and energy and infrastructure development, and is largely tied to Russia's Central Asia policy to avoid disagreements. China and the United States do not have much intersection in Their policies in Central Asia, and their respective areas of concern and focus are also different. The differences between China and the United States are mainly in the "color revolution.". In this regard, China and Russia coordinate their positions with Central Asian countries and basically hold a critical position towards the United States. There is no fundamental conflict of interest between China and the United States in Central Asia, and the role of the United States in the promotion of the "Belt and Road" is not necessarily weaker than that of Russia. Russia fears that China will weaken its influence. But the United States does not have this concern, Central Asia itself is not its strategic core area, and the United States does not have many resources for the great power game. If China adjusts its Central Asia policy appropriately and strengthens its cooperation with the United States, it may receive unexpected benefits.
First, strengthen work for the grassroots people or elites in Central Asia. Try to avoid using the concept of "color revolutions" to label some of the political demands within Central Asia. Abandon the way of thinking of confronting the United States and seek common ground in Sino-US interests in Central Asia.
Second, full recognition of the close networks between Central Asian elites and the United States and other Western countries, including study abroad, business, and NGO activities. This network should be used to enter the elite circles of Central Asia. In addition, the family power in the Central Asian countries was divided into two groups, one wave being the influence of Moscow. The other wave is the Western countries. Strengthen U.S.-China cooperation to increase influence over family power.
Third, China and the United States have tried to establish a cooperation mechanism for regional governance in Central Asia, which fully accommodates the interests and concerns of both sides. From the perspective of regional security, the United States is concerned about the security situation in northern Afghanistan and cuts off the connection between Afghanistan and extremist forces in Central Asia. China is concerned about the impact of security in Central Asia on stability in Xinjiang. At present, due to the cooperation and severe crackdown of the SCO, terrorist forces such as the "UUI" and the "Islamic Liberation Party" and even the Islamic State have moved south to southern Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the tension between the United States and Iran has provided a living space for terrorist and extremist forces.
One of my visions is that we need to see Central and South Asia as a geopolitical whole, with the Bahá'í and the five Central Asian countries as vulnerable zones that threaten China's western security at any time. So China needs to work with the United States, Russia, and India to provide a reinforcing scaffold for this geopolitical belt through two triangular relationships.
After the major powers have provided an external stable environment, China and the United States can cooperate and use the resources and conditions of both sides to cooperate in some low-political and sub-regional regions of Central Asia, especially comprehensive social governance. The specific two points are to establish a Baa'í consumer market network to promote regional prosperity and stability with economic development. The second is regional governance in Fergana.
(Author: Lu Gang, Director of the Center for Central Asian Studies, East China Normal University, this article was published on August 26, 2018, the http://daguoce.org/article/12/297.html of the Great Power Policy Think Tank)
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