Editor's note: The implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative will be completed for 7 years, and how to better promote the process of the initiative and ensure the interests of China while benefiting countries along the belt and road is still an important issue that should be considered at present. To this end, it is necessary to conduct a strategic review of the "Belt and Road" construction promoted in the past 6 years, in order to identify problems, explore their root causes, and propose solutions so that the "Belt and Road" construction can develop healthily and steadily.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > the main problems in the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative</h1>
President Xi Jinping pointed out at the symposium on the 5th anniversary of promoting the construction of the "Belt and Road": "The joint construction of the 'Belt and Road' conforms to the inherent requirements of the reform of the global governance system, highlights the sense of a community of common destiny of helping each other in the same boat and sharing rights and responsibilities, and provides new ideas and new solutions for improving the reform of the global governance system." "The construction of the "Belt and Road" is a major initiative to build a community with a shared future for mankind, which is widely welcomed and responded to in the world, especially in developing countries. While making significant achievements, the Belt and Road Initiative has also seen some noteworthy problems in its implementation.
First of all, it is necessary to prevent the development trend of generalization, "hollowing-out" and politicization that may occur in the "Belt and Road" initiative, and prevent the phenomenon of gradually blurring the original boundaries and spreading out more and more stalls. At the beginning of the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, there was a conventional demarcation, about 65 countries belong to the countries along the route, basically distributed in the hinterland of Eurasia and the two major geological plates on the edge, and run through the "Silk Road". From another perspective, the border of the "Belt and Road" can also be used as another expression of China's large surrounding areas. On this basis, China's economic cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road is widely popular, which is why Western powers, including the United States and the European Union, initially took a wait-and-see attitude towards the "Belt and Road". However, with the increasingly diversified interpretations of the "Belt and Road" by experts and scholars, more and more countries along the route have been included, from more than 60 countries to more than 100, covering almost all geopolitical sectors in the world, and the content of implementation has also expanded from economic cooperation to many fields. The negative effects caused by it have gradually emerged: first, some people's interpretation of the initiative is all-encompassing, lacking focus points and core areas; second, the long-term strategic planning is not clear, caught in a bitter battle at the policy level; third, it has aroused the vigilance of the major countries in the United States and Europe.
Second, it is necessary to prevent the "Belt and Road" construction front from being too long, the investment in infrastructure construction being too large, and the consumption of foreign exchange reserves from being too large. According to the statistics of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, in the five years since the "Belt and Road" initiative was promoted, central enterprises alone have undertaken 3116 projects in countries along the route, distributed in 185 countries, with newly signed foreign contracting project contracts amounting to more than 500 billion US dollars and total overseas assets exceeding 1 trillion US dollars. Such a broad and large-scale investment has far exceeded the "Marshall Plan" of that year, which has had a certain impact on the international political and economic pattern. Most of China's foreign investment is concentrated in infrastructure construction, the profits are thin, the return time is long, it is difficult to transfer, and it is likely to remain in the countries along the route to become a "public good" (Qian Keming, vice minister of commerce). The reason why the "Belt and Road" attack in the first 5 years is strong mainly depends on China's strong foreign exchange reserves, which is the wealth accumulated in the 40 years of reform and opening up. In peacetime, foreign exchange reserves are the ammunition depot of the country's hard power, which could have been used for the country's strategic needs. Consuming foreign exchange reserves too quickly can lead to a lack of staying power for national competition and lead to a lack of other strategies.
Third, the change in the attitude of the major countries in the United States and Europe and the changes in the political situation of countries along the route have caused huge resistance to the promotion of the "Belt and Road". With the extension and expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative in terms of coverage and implementation content, major countries such as the United States and Europe have changed their original wait-and-see attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative. In their view, China, with the help of the Belt and Road Initiative, has launched an all-out attack on a global scale, seriously challenging the Western-dominated world order. Therefore, they have begun to take countermeasures to take advantage of the changes in the political situation of countries along the route to hinder the progress of the "Belt and Road". In this context, with the political changes in sri Lanka, Greece, Malaysia, Pakistan and Poland, the "Belt and Road" began to face severe tests. Some new rulers in countries along the route have begun to question the cooperation agreement with China. The "China Debt Trap Theory" has also appeared in the international public opinion circles.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > second, the strategic constraints faced by the "Belt and Road" initiative</h1>
In the current international context, there are three strategic constraints to the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. If we ignore these strategic constraints and blindly advance at all costs, it will inevitably cause a backlash in the areas along the route and even the entire international community, causing major losses to national interests. The three strategic constraints are:
The first is the constraint of the principle of sovereignty. Most of the countries along the "Belt and Road" are emerging countries that have become independent after the war, cherish national sovereignty and national independence, and resolutely oppose foreign interference. This means that it is difficult for any major country to influence the political changes in these countries for a long time. China's cooperation projects and huge investments are likely to suffer as a result of the fall of a regime or a change in policy. In addition, the governments of countries along the "Belt and Road" may also be unable to repay their debts, making it impossible for China to recover the costs paid on time.
The second is the constraint of the strategic game between major powers. The Belt and Road Initiative covers several of the regions where the great power game is most intense, such as the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia. Taking Central Asia as an example, the countries participating in the regional power game are not only the two global powers of the United States and Russia, but also regional powers such as India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Of particular note is Turkey, which has taken advantage of the Turkic people's cultural and geographical proximity to penetrate Central Asia and has developed deep roots in the region. These developments suggest that China will face a string of competitors as it pushes the BRI, and the situation is complex and may be difficult to overcome.
The third is the constraint of the rules of the international economic order. Specifically, it refers to two aspects, one is the constraint of the hegemony of the US dollar; the other is the restriction of the international markets of the United States and Europe. Countries along the "Belt and Road", even the most backward countries, if they want to integrate into the international community as independent countries, they must abide by the existing international economic order, which is still based on the hegemony of the US dollar, and the international market of the United States and Europe is the basis for ensuring the hegemony of the US dollar. Although China has a large economy, it is still subject to the United States and Europe to some extent. At present, The situation of China's entry into the US market is relatively grim, and at the same time, the European market is not very optimistic. Once the United States and Europe are successfully coordinated, the european door may also be closed to China at any time.
<h1 class= "pgc-h-arrow-right" > third, countermeasures</h1>
After discovering the problems existing in the "Belt and Road" initiative and its strategic constraints, how should strategic adjustments be made to avoid strategic risks? The author here puts forward the following thoughts:
First, we must clarify the ultimate goal of the Belt and Road Initiative. The author believes that we mainly have three major strategic goals: (1) to achieve the internationalization of the renminbi and make it a regional (not global) circulating currency, so that the renminbi can obtain the function and credit of some international currencies; (2) to establish an international market dominated by China, making it the third largest international market in the world after the United States and Europe; (3) to establish partial international economic rules on the basis of the first two, the purpose of which is not to overthrow the system of international rules dominated by the United States. Rather, it is to enhance China's voice in the original international economic order.
Second, it is necessary to determine the boundaries and scope of the "Belt and Road". The original goal of the "Belt and Road" initiative was to ensure the security of the western region and expand the strategic space to the hinterland of the Eurasian region, but then its extension continued to expand, surpassing the Central Asian region, including Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia, Central Asia, Russia, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, North Africa, and East Africa, and also pulling into Latin American countries, which is equivalent to expanding to the world. This kind of unrestricted global investment is unbearable according to China's current strength, so it is necessary to redefine the boundaries and core areas of the "Belt and Road".
The author believes that Central Asia is an ideal target area for the Belt and Road Initiative and should be positioned as the core area of the Belt and Road Initiative. The region is an emerging geopolitical sector with a low level of development and an urgent need for assistance from neighboring powers. For China, the lower economic costs of investment can yield considerable political gains. Therefore, in the process of promoting the "Belt and Road" initiative, instead of casting a net everywhere, it is better to carry out deep ploughing in Central Asia.
Third, build a consumer market hub in the core area of the "Belt and Road". The Belt and Road Initiative is closely related to Xinjiang's development and stability. We need to use the promotion of the "Belt and Road" to solve the problem of economic outlet by building a consumer market in Xinjiang.
In Xinjiang and even in greater Central Asia, its development model is still the traditional industrialization model. In the modern economic industry chain, it itself only serves as a raw material supply base or rises to an export processing base at most. However, due to the geo-economic environment far from international markets and sea ports, the development of this region is extremely difficult. If we change our way of thinking and take the development of the consumer market as a starting point for building the core area of the "Belt and Road", it may be more suitable for the local situation.
Xinjiang and Central Asia have a certain foundation for the development of consumer markets. They have a number of cities with a certain population size, and they are all close to the main traffic routes. Although the scale of cities is difficult to reach international metropolises such as Shanghai, they can develop consumer markets on the spot, avoid traffic bottlenecks, and let cities on transportation trunk lines form a broad consumer market network, and the prospects are still quite considerable. Of course, there are still difficulties, limited by geographical location, and traffic with the outside world is still the biggest bottleneck in development. Therefore, the construction of the core areas of the "Belt and Road" cannot replicate the industrialization development model of the mainland. It must combine the local economic level and people's livelihood conditions, and gradually improve the degree of modernization by cultivating the consumer market.
China can learn from Russia's experience in this regard. Russia has maintained its dominance in the region by influencing the consumer market in Central Asia, such as the labour market for Central Asian countries. China should also start from the consumer market and develop the consumer market of the "Belt and Road" through two aspects: one is to buy more products and services from Central Asian countries, and even provide them with labor markets, thereby expanding the influence of the renminbi; second, it will cultivate Xinjiang into a consumer market hub in the core areas of the "Belt and Road", so that Xinjiang will become a "transit station" for the trade of products and services between Central Asian countries and the mainland.
At present, in the specific implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, strategic planning thinking not only has not shaken off the old pattern, but may deepen the dependence of China and countries along the route on the Western market. China should shrink its strength, highlight its priorities, increase its strategic investment in the core regions of Central Asia, build a China-led international market on its own, and make full use of other regional cooperation frameworks to rationally "slim down" the Belt and Road Initiative.
Author: Lu Gang is a researcher at the Institute of International Studies, East China Normal University
(Article published in Peking University International Strategic Research Brief, March 28, 2019)
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