Liu Bei's reputation in those years in Jingzhou is clearly recorded, even if Liu Bei passes through the city, there are a large number of people who come out to join his team, so the people of Jingzhou are sure to be able to obey Liu Bei. After Liu Biao's death, the people of Xiangyang people floated, Liu Mao Cai Mao's lack of ability and did not have the heart to stick to it, coupled with Liu Bei's original public opinion base, even Liu Bei had many people from Xiangyang in the team at that time, even if Cai Mao wanted to defend the city, it was difficult to guarantee that no one would directly surrender Kaicheng. The people in Xiangyang city were unstable, Liu Zhen and Cai Mao were not able to effectively integrate and rule Xiangyang, and the people's hearts were toward Liu Bei, and the possibility of conquering them was very high.
Cai Mao launched a coup d'état to control the army at the time of Liu Biao's death, and at that moment when the political situation changed into chaos, whoever controlled the army listened to whomever he wanted, which was basic common sense. If Liu Bei launched a second coup d'état and achieved the goal of controlling the army, then he would listen to Liu Bei. The Powerful ones play a role in running industries because they control the economic base. The views of the powerful are not static, but can be changed by means. At first, no one in the north supported Cao Cao, who started in one place, and Yizhou Haoqiang never had a reason to support the foreign Liu Bei Zhuge Liang, but in fact they were forced to accept the change.
As long as Liu Bei gained temporary control through the coup, the rest could be slowly stabilized through management. The Jingzhou clan didn't want to surrender to Cao Cao so much, and later Liu Bei sun quan ruled over them, didn't they also agree? Cao Cao came, sun quan's side of the big clan Hao Qiang also hoped to surrender, Sun Quan had to fight in the crowd, and did not hear that the big clan because Sun Quan did not vote for Cao Cao, let Sun Quan's position as the leader of the position was unstable. To put it bluntly, the powerful and powerful can cause instability in a stable regime, but it is by no means a decisive factor that can determine who will decide in the midst of turmoil.
In the xuzhou case, Liu Bei was an outsider who had no popular base, no military strength, and no ethnic connections, of course. Liu Bei Zhuge Liang on the Jingzhou side is not an "outsider", has a popular base, has a certain military strength, and has a certain number of ethnic connections, and cannot be spoken of with Xuzhou at all. Of course, there are risks, politicians have risks in starting a business, risk does not mean not necessarily unsuccessful, at that time Liu Bei if he listened to Zhuge Liang's coup d'état, the risk he needed to face was relatively small.
If Liu Bei took Xiangyang, in the face of Cao Cao's attacks, according to the city and defended, Jianbi Qingye (may not have time to clear the wilderness, the terrain is not very favorable to Qingye, but the jianbi problem is not big) Cao Cao may not be so easy to fight, the advantage of defending the city in the era of cold weapons is very large, Cao Ren shounan County's military morale is obviously not as good as Zhou Yu's case, zhang Ren can defend luo city for more than 1 year, Hao Zhao's 1,000 people can also defend Zhuge Liang tens of thousands of people for half a month. Moreover, there were soldiers and grain inside the big city, and Liu Bei also had 10,000 or 20,000 soldiers with him at that time. I think there is no situation of losing it quickly, the worst and worst according to other people's data for 1 year is no problem, in this 1 year to engage in diplomacy, appease a few southern counties to accumulate money and grain, outside of Jiangxia Liu Qi's sandwich attack, there are more variables.
If Liu Bei fights Xiangyang, it is equivalent to launching a coup d'état, and whether he can succeed is not 100 percent, but it is very likely. Liu Bei shouted a voice, and many officials and ordinary people came out to flee with him. It was only a few thousand of Cai Mao's pro-soldiers to deal with, and there was no way for a large army in the chaos to assemble, and it was not difficult for Liu Bei's 10,000 or 20,000 people to deal with Cai Mao's several thousand pro-soldiers. Still that sentence, Liu Bei accumulated popularity in Jingzhou for 7 years, Zhuge Liang married all the noble families in Jingzhou for 12 years, the reputation of the academic community is thunderous, it is impossible for some people to be dissatisfied, and it is not Yizhou, Yizhou They are rootless.
In summary, even if there is a little risk, the result is worse than one or two thousand family soldiers, more than a hundred thousand people are gone, several core personnel almost lost their lives in the end, and finally asked for help from the Eastern Wu curve to save the country to give people a "I will help you when you fall, so Jingzhou should have my share" The excuse eventually led to historical tragic consequences, and the result will be worse than this.