Seeing this question, I think most friends who like history will definitely say in their hearts: "History has no assumptions." But as the old saying goes, using copper as a mirror can be a proper dress; using people as a mirror can see gains and losses; taking history as a mirror can know the rise and fall. So as a bystander to history, let's now set our sights on October 1941 and see if the results change as a result.
The first is that even if the war is won, the German army will pay a heavy price. Friends who know history must know that there are too many factors that affected the victory of the Moscow War, and I have briefly summarized the following five points:
First, in the early stages of the war, the German top brass had a great quarrel over whether to attack Moscow or Ukraine first, and the two sides were divided into two factions, one with Hitler as the head of the Führer and the other with the front general Goodanri as the leader of the quick war faction. Hitler believed that Ukrainian raw materials and agricultural products were very important to the German army, and that the Soviet Red Army in Ukraine was also an important threat to the German army, so the German army finally decided to fight Ukraine first at Hitler's suggestion, and this decision left the Soviet army with time to buffer adjustment.
Second, the famous Soviet agent Richard Sorge provided the Soviet army with two very important intelligence, one was that Germany would launch the Barbarossa Plan on June 22, 1941, and the other was that Japan's strategic decision to move east or south appeared on Stalin's desk a few hours after the Japanese high command made it. These two pieces of information prepared Stalin for advance defense, and at the same time quickly added the strength of dozens of divisions from the Far East to the defense of Moscow.
Third, on November 7, 1941, a huge military parade was held in Moscow's Red Square, where hundreds of thousands of Officers and Men of the Red Army walked through the rostrum to receive a review by Stalin and other Soviet party and government leaders. This is very similar to the scene in which the troops brought by Xiang Yu in the Battle of the Giant Deer that occurred in the history of our country broke the cauldron, cutting off all the back roads, and the only thing left was a fearless charge. The Soviet Union's Red Square military parade played a role in this way.
The fourth is the logistical problem of the German army. The problem of logistical supply had become very serious when the Germans attacked Smolensk, although the top brass shifted the focus of the attack to the two wings, and had to strengthen the logistics supply line in the central direction, and also repaired the railway line to Smolensk. But now the German army has advanced hundreds of kilometers on this basis, and the strength of the army group center is unprecedentedly strong, this series of problems has made the pressure on the logistics supply of the German army increase sharply, and even if the transportation of food and winter clothes is greatly reduced or even abandoned in the later period, the full delivery of weapons and ammunition can still not meet the needs of the front. And for Germany, there was no reserve army to replenish its strength early, and the last large-scale replenishment was before the Moscow Campaign was launched, which meant that for every casualty of the German army on the front line, it was reduced by one point. In stark contrast, the Moscow Soviet army has been getting a steady stream of cutting-edge troops, not only to make up for the losses on the front line, but also to form a new defensive line on the outskirts of Moscow.
Fifth, the well-known effects of weather. The cold of winter took heavy losses for the Germans dressed in thin clothes.
Based on the above five points, when the German army attacked Moscow, it was no longer facing the defenseless Soviet Red Army, but with a certain defensive reserve and a fearless Soviet Red Army, which doomed the German army, although victory was also accompanied by a heavy price of victory, and after this, could the German army defend the enemy's homeland and defend the hard-fought Moscow, and continue to attack the next city? Obviously, the probability of this result is not 100%, or even 50% is difficult to say.
Secondly, some people may say that looking at the overall situation, Moscow is at this time the transportation hub of the whole country of the Soviet Union, the place where all the railways converge, if Moscow is lost, the Soviet Union will lose a unified logistics and army transportation system, which is very large for the overall strategic policy of the Soviet army, and Moscow, as the capital, will seriously hit the morale of the military and the people after being occupied. In the face of this double whammy, despite the heavy losses of the German army, in the face of demoralized morale and the loss of a unified logistics and army transportation system, the German army may be able to hold?
In fact, this reasoning is also very well refuted, for example, in our country, on December 13, 1937, japan captured Nanjing, which was the capital for the Kuomintang, and it was also the seat of its highest administrative organ, the Nanjing National Government, which was the political and economic center of its rule over all parts of the country. At that time, Japan was faced with a scattered sand and there were still traitors who were willing to be lackeys, and we did not see that Japan could occupy China in a short period of time, let alone a group of flesh-and-blood Soviet troops.
After the failure of the attack on Moscow, the German army decided to take advantage of the fact that Europe had not yet opened a second battlefield to continue to strengthen the German forces on the Soviet-German battlefield, and in the summer of 1942, it launched a key offensive on the southern flank of the Soviet-German battlefield, in an attempt to quickly capture the Caucasus and Stalingrad, and then take Moscow in the north and the Persian Gulf in the south. On September 12, 1942, the German army gathered more than 50 divisions, of which 13 divisions directly attacked Stalingrad with 170,000 troops, which did not include equipment, but in this way, the German army still did not attack, but suffered heavy losses. The Soviets adopted the tactics of "peace and mud" in the face of the powerful German army, and stubborn resistance eventually won the victory.
Finally, I would like to say that from ancient times to the present, justice will eventually triumph over injustice, and those who win the hearts and minds of the people will win the world. Fascism is inherently inhuman evil, there is oppression and resistance, there is resistance there is war, the German army is wrong from the beginning, then what he will eventually get will only be defeat, it is only a matter of time.