Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, reporter Lu Dan) news, today's listed Hualan shares, suffered an opening break, the opening price fell 11.24% from the issue price, this is the 9th new stock in the 7 consecutive trading days on the first day of listing.
Some of the winning investors in the Hualan stock bar said that they "felt that they were losing money by luck", and some investors said that "how happy they were when they won the lottery, how depressed they are now!" ”
A private equity institution involved in the new one told the Financial Associated Press reporter: "The change in the new strategy after frequent breaks is more rational, on the one hand, it is necessary to judge whether to play new according to the situation of the fundamentals, and cannot participate simply for the sake of shortlisting; on the other hand, after in-depth study of the fundamentals of the proposed listed company, the company that is not confident enough about the fundamentals will not participate in the new." ”
Recently, the number of new stocks that broke on the first day of the recent break has risen to 9
The opening price of Hualan shares listed today fell by 11.24% compared with the issue price, and it is estimated that the loss of 3265 yuan was made in the first sign. Since the first day of the listing of Zhongzi Technology on October 22, Hualan shares are the ninth new stock to break on the first day of listing in 7 consecutive trading days (Note: Kerda broke during the session, and the closing price on the first day of listing was higher than the issue price).
Today's listed Hualan shares opened and broke, followed by a wave of funds to grab the chip, the stock price rose from 11.24% to 3.58%, but then the stock price again explored the shock, as of the close of 52.22 yuan / share, the daily turnover rate was 48.93%, which means that nearly half of the winning bidders sold chips.
According to the statistics of the Financial Associated Press reporter, among the new stocks that were inquired after the new regulations on September 18, there were high-speed rail electric, Yum Intelligence, Keerda, Jiusheng Electric, Kefu Medical, Zhongke Weizhi, Rongmei shares, and Shenzhen City Jiaotong, and the issue price of 8 new stocks exceeded the low value of the "four values", and the probability of breaking through the "four values" after the listing of individual stocks was higher.
The so-called "four values" mainly refer to the median and weighted average of the remaining quotations of all offline investors and all kinds offline investors after excluding the highest quotation part, and the median and weighted average of the remaining quotations of public funds, social security funds, pensions, enterprise annuity funds and insurance funds after excluding the highest quotation part.
The new rules on September 18 abolished the arrangement of breaking through the "four lows" pricing and the "extension", and clarified that if the issue price determined after the initial inquiry exceeds the average quotation of offline investors, only one special announcement of investment risks needs to be issued before the subscription, and there is no need to take a delayed subscription arrangement. The strategy team of Haitong Securities believes that this will effectively broaden the pricing decision-making space between issuers and investment banks, especially when quotations are dispersed, giving investment banks more independent pricing power.
A private equity firm interviewed believes that the reasons for the recent frequent breaks of registered new stocks can be analyzed from three aspects. The primary reason is the change of the inquiry rules, the proportion of high-price exclusion has changed from 10% to 3%, in actual operation, the high-culling ratio is 1%, resulting in the improvement of the pricing center of new shares; secondly, under the current rules, underwriters and issuers have the motivation to break through the "four values", and under the incentive mechanism, high pricing can earn more underwriting fees, which can increase the scale of fundraising for issuers; third, by analyzing the performance of this group of listed companies after the new rules of inquiry, the business growth of some companies is not ideal. The level of the P/E ratio of the offering is also higher than that of comparable peers, so the market after the listing gave the answer of "voting with the foot".
Pricing game: Brokerage investment banks and issuers have sufficient momentum to increase pricing
After the "New Rules on Inquiry", although the situation of registered new shares being held together and suppressed has improved, after the issuance pricing center has risen, new shares have encountered frequent breaks, and under this contradiction, the game between issuers, underwriters and investors has become quite delicate.
The reporter of the Financial Associated Press flipped through the public disclosure documents of the recently broken new shares and found that the investment bank of the securities company broke through the "four values" of the power source when pricing the new shares, and some securities investment banks and the issuer agreed on the "incentive mechanism".
Taking Kefu Medical as an example, in the section on the estimated issuance cost, the underwriting fee consists of two parts: the general underwriting commission and the incentive underwriting commission:
(1) General underwriting fee: the total amount of funds raised is 2.5 billion yuan (including 2.5 billion yuan), and the underwriting rate for the following part is 4% (excluding VAT); the underwriting rate for the total amount of funds raised exceeds 2.5 billion yuan (excluding VAT).
(2) Reward underwriting commission: If the total amount of funds raised corresponds to the P/E ratio is less than 21 times, the reward underwriting commission is zero; if the P/E ratio is greater than or equal to 21 times and less than 26 times, the reward underwriting commission = 5 million * P/E ratio / 21; if the P/E ratio is greater than 26 times, the reward underwriting commission = 9.25 million * P/E ratio / 21.
Kefu Medical intends to raise funds of 1.007 billion yuan, the actual amount of funds raised is as high as 3.724 billion yuan, and the actual proportion of funds raised (actual/proposed) is as high as 369.77%. From this point of view, securities investment banks not only earn 127 million yuan more in the general underwriting fee part. Moreover, the price-to-earnings ratio of the stock was also more than 26 times, and the underwriter also received a reward underwriting commission.
<h3>Image source: Kefu Medical related public disclosure documents</h3>
In addition, Rongmei shares also have relevant incentive mechanisms, and the provisions of its sponsorship and underwriting fees are: the total amount of funds raised * 4.60%, and not less than 28 million yuan; in addition, at the time of the offering pricing, the issuer has the right to negotiate with the lead underwriter according to the performance of the lead underwriter's team and the final offering, etc., to decide to give the lead underwriter an additional incentive commission of not more than 4.00% of the total amount of the raised funds (the "Reward Commission").
From the perspective of the final fundraising ratio, Rongmei shares have also achieved a large amount of over-raising, and the actual proportion of funds raised (actual/proposed) is as high as 314.50%.
Senior industry insiders believe that the incentive for issuers and underwriters to over-raise is very strong, resulting in higher pricing of issuances; but the price-to-earnings ratio of some companies is generally higher than that of other companies in comparable industries, and the quality of listed companies is not particularly good.
In addition, the above-mentioned industry insiders also reminded that the high-priced issuance of new shares, a result brought about by the "over-offering", although "over-raising" is beneficial to the issuer, but also need to be vigilant that the issuer does not need to raise so much money, and the result is that after several times the over-raising does not know how to spend the problem.
It is more rational to play new
One institution involved in the offline crackdown believes that continuous breaks and market-oriented pricing of new stocks will go through a rebalancing process. Although issuers and underwriters have the incentive to raise the issue price, the recent frequent breaks have led to investors becoming cautious in participating, and the 9 new shares that have recently broken are all companies that have been inquired at almost the same time after the new rules of inquiry, and after the completion of the issuance of these new shares, the phenomenon of breakouts may be alleviated.
For ordinary investors, there have been new stock breaks every day for 7 consecutive trading days, and panic has spread to a certain extent.
One of the interviewed investors said that he "intends to observe for a period of time and then play new", and another investor believes: "The main board companies issued according to the 23 times price-earnings ratio can participate, but other stocks that cannot be understood will not be played." ”
Institutional investors' new strategies have also become more rational. A private equity institution involved in the new one told the Financial Associated Press reporter: "The change in the new strategy after frequent breaks is more rational, on the one hand, it is necessary to judge whether to hit the new according to the fundamental situation, and cannot participate simply for the sake of shortlisting; on the other hand, after in-depth study of the fundamentals of the proposed listed company, the company with relatively poor fundamental conditions will not participate in the new strategy." ”
Xun Yugen of Haitong Securities also believes in the research report that after the institutional reform, the new strategy of indiscriminate play cannot guarantee 100% profitability, and investors need to use their own independent research to identify new stock investment opportunities, which is more in line with the original intention of the reform of the registration and issuance system.