Per reporter: Zhang Zhongyin Per editor: Liao Dan
The epidemic in 2020 has affected traditional consumption, but it has also accelerated the development of the online economy, and "promoting consumption" has become a hot word at the two sessions. The draft outline of the "14th Five-Year Plan" points out that the strategy of expanding domestic demand should be deeply implemented, the basic role of consumption in economic development and the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure should be enhanced, and a strong domestic market with strong consumption and investment demand should be built.
Enhance traditional consumption, cultivate new types of consumption, and develop service consumption... The draft outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan also puts forward specific requirements in many aspects.
Which areas of the domestic market currently have the most potential for consumption? With the good control of the epidemic in China and the improvement of the vaccination rate, how to view the recovery prospects of the aviation industry and tourism industry? Income is the basis of consumption, to expand consumption, we must first let the people's wallet bulge, so how to further increase the income of the people?
Recently, in the "Daily Economic News" and Baidu Finance and Economics jointly produced the special series of "Representatives and Members Face to Face" column, Wang Yu, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of Spring Airlines, Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, and Guan Qingyou, dean of the Institute of Finance and professor of the School of Economics of Hainan University, held a heated discussion on the above issues.
<h2>Tapping the potential of domestic consumption needs to start with "luxury goods"</h2>
The government work report pointed out that we should adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand and fully tap the potential of the domestic market.
How to view the potential of China's consumer market? What focus areas are worth focusing on? Su Jian pointed out that in any economy, if you want to expand consumption without considering the economic operation of the epidemic situation, what can be expanded is the consumption of luxury goods. It should be emphasized here that luxury is a relative concept, and different people have different definitions of luxury goods, but no matter who it is, when his income increases, his increased consumption is the consumer goods that are more luxurious for him. To tap the potential of the domestic market, it is necessary to tap the consumption of these luxury goods.
Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, analyzes the potential of the domestic consumer market
The definition of luxury goods varies from person to person, and for countries, at different stages of development, the connotation of luxury goods is also different. Su Jian explained that in China more than thirty years ago, luxury consumption may be to buy a motorcycle, or eat a big meal, to a certain stage of development, such as now, housing, Internet, cars, tourism... These became luxury goods. China's most promising consumer sector is here. With the further development of China's economy, the people's economic ability and desire to upgrade consumption are definitely getting stronger and stronger.
Su Jian believes that the consumption upgrade ultimately reflects luxury consumption, that is, the upgrading of consumption is to turn the previous luxury consumption into the current necessities to consume, and then turn the consumption that was previously unimaginable into luxury consumption.
Wang Yu also said that with the improvement of people's income level, some products with consumption upgrades have great potential. As more and more people own houses, the proportion of disposable income outside of non-residential buildings is getting higher and higher, which can drive the growth of other consumption patterns. For example, a lot of spiritual and cultural consumption, watching movies, traveling, and so on.
<h2>Service consumption is the direction of consumption upgrading</h2>
In recent years, China's service consumption has developed rapidly, compared with developed countries, the proportion of China's service consumption is still low, how to view the development potential of service consumption?
Su Jian believes that in terms of service consumption, there is a lot of room for future development. Now China's per capita GDP is about 1/6 of the United States, find out what is the corresponding consumption of this gap, you can find the direction of China's consumption upgrading.
Su Jian said that now we from the consumption of material living materials, compared with the developed countries, the gap is not large, many families have cars, houses are almost also available, and the consumption of hardware such as mobile phones and computers is actually not bad compared with foreign countries.
So this has a question, so what is the direction of the upgrade if we upgrade our consumption next? Su Jian said that in fact, it is mainly the consumption of services.
Guan Qingyou also said that service consumption will continue to increase with the improvement of China's total economic volume, per capita level, and the contribution of consumption to the economy.
For example, Guan Qingyou, dean of the Institute of Finance and professor of the School of Economics of Hainan University, discussed the direction of consumption upgrading
It is worth noting that Su Jian mentioned that the first thing in terms of service consumption is safe consumption, such as property rights security, personal safety, and economic security. He said that the next big industry may be China's insurance industry.
In addition, Su Jian also mentioned that a large number of digital economies are related to service consumption, such as Internet communications, in addition, there are hotels, tourism, aviation, etc., which are all service industries.
Last year, due to the epidemic factor, the service industry was greatly affected, and the aviation industry was no exception, at the same time, in recent years, China has also carried out high-speed rail construction. In the face of competition from high-speed rail, what are the prospects for the recovery of the aviation industry?
Wang Yu pointed out that high-speed rail and aviation have their own strengths and their own market scope. In recent years, high-speed rail has developed from "four vertical and four horizontal" to "eight vertical and eight horizontal", the construction is very fast, but it is also necessary to see that the cost of the railway is quite high, the place where the high-speed rail is built is now moving to the central and western regions, the further back, through the mountains, bridges, the entire construction cost will be higher and higher, the land cost will be higher and higher, and the aircraft construction cost is relatively lower. In addition, the speed benefit of high-speed rail is related to the number of its stops, and the more the speed benefit, the lower the speed benefit.
Wang Yu said that in the future, high-speed rail may be used between large cities, and there will be more aviation between third- and fourth-tier cities. Therefore, in the future, aviation and high-speed rail will present a situation of mutual integration and dislocation competition.
Wang Yu, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of Spring Airlines, explained in detail the prospects for the recovery of the aviation industry
<h2>Adjusting the pattern of income distribution can help expand consumption</h2>
Income is the basis of consumption, and the government work report requires that residents' income be increased through multiple channels.
To expand consumption, it is necessary to let the people's wallets bulge first. Su Jian believes that this can be done in two aspects. First of all, it is necessary to adjust the distribution structure between government revenue and private income. The proportion of personal income of residents in our country to GDP is low, about 50%, and the proportion of developed countries accounts for about 60 or 70 percent, which is not conducive to expanding consumption in China.
Of course, the government can also spend it after getting the money, which is also to stimulate domestic demand, but it is basically investment, and with the improvement of China's infrastructure construction, the return on investment in infrastructure should be lower and lower. At this time, the transfer of income from the government to the private sector will help to increase consumption.
In addition, Su Jian stressed that the pattern of income distribution should be adjusted to make income distribution more equal. From an economic point of view, the poor have a higher desire to consume, and the rich are lower, so that the low-income class reaches a higher income level, and the consumption expansion of this part of the group will be faster, which is conducive to enhancing the consumption tendency of the whole country.
With the ability to consume and the desire to consume, it is also necessary to solve the problem that the people dare not consume. Su Jian said that this falls on the improvement of the social security system, which requires the reform of the pension system, the reform of the education system, and the reform of the housing system. In addition, it is also necessary to do a good job in the population management system, especially to liberalize the household registration management system and promote urbanization. Su Jian explained that a person's income in the countryside may be relatively low, and the income of migrant workers in the city will immediately increase, and urbanization will help adjust the structure of income distribution.
Daily economic news