According to the local economic and social survey team of Henan Province, the price survey and monitoring of 40 major foods in 17 provinces and cities in Henan and the Jiyuan Demonstration Zone shows that compared with the beginning of October, pork prices bottomed out and rebounded in mid-October, with a large increase. Among them, the back rump meat rose by 11.81% month-on-month, the pork belly rose by 11.32% month-on-month, and the ribs rose by 0.11% month-on-month.
On October 29, the reporter visited the community supermarket, Dennis all-day fresh, farmers market and Yonghui supermarket near Jinshui District, and the price of pork was basically around 14-16 yuan / catty. In the Shuanghui meat cabinet of a Dennis supermarket, the price of pork belly is 24.9 yuan / catty.
"The price of pork has only started to rise in the past two days, and I have never seen pork prices so low before, which is very abnormal." A supermarket owner told reporters that from the middle of October, in four or five days, the cumulative price of pork per kilogram increased by 4 yuan to 5 yuan.
Looking back at September, the price of pork in Henan has been in a continuous downward trend, and even the price of pork in some local markets has fallen below 10 yuan.
"The cost of a pig is about 15-16 yuan per kilogram, and the plunge in the previous period was far lower than the cost price." Liu Quanxing, chairman of Henan Bohui Feed Co., Ltd., told reporters that from 2020 to 2021, although the stock is large, but affected by the epidemic and swine fever, consumers' consumption demand for pork is low, the supply exceeds demand, and pork prices begin to show a downward state. "Looking at the market is not good, everyone began to eliminate sows with low production performance, resulting in more and more pork in the market, but the consumption was not well improved, and the price was getting lower and lower."
This statement has also been proved by Zhu Zekun, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Consulting. "Pig prices in 2021 will be mainly reduced. From the perspective of the operation of downstream slaughtering enterprises, it can be summarized as an increase in the operating rate, but the demand follow-up is insufficient, and the price of meat has fallen. ”
The continuous decline in pork prices has made the most resistant "pig grass" Makihara shares unable to hold up. In the third quarter performance forecast released by Makihara in mid-October, it is expected to make a profit of 8.5 billion yuan to 9 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 57.12% to 59.5% year-on-year. Among them, the third quarter is expected to lose 500 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, down 104.9% to 109.8% from the same period last year. In the third quarter of last year, Makihara made a net profit of 10.2 billion yuan.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="17" > analysis| pork storage and increased consumer demand led to a rebound</h1>
So, why have pork prices started to pick up recently? Some experts believe that the boost of frozen pork storage and the increase in consumer demand are the main reasons for the recent recovery in pig prices.
According to public information, in order to curb the rapid decline in pig prices, starting from July, the central government launched the first round of reserve pork storage work, July 7 open auction to collect and store 20,000 tons of frozen pork, July 14 to collect 13,000 tons, July 21 to collect 20,000 tons, a total of 53,000 tons. Under the support of the collection and storage work, in July and August, the price of live pigs has an ultra-long-term shock and consolidation, but the overall trend is still in a downward trend.
"In the current loose supply environment, the first round of storage cups and salaries has a promoting effect on curbing the rapid decline in pig prices and boosting market confidence, but there is not much practical positive for pulling pork prices up." Industry experts told reporters.
On October 10, the central government carried out the second round of the first round of reserve pork storage, which collected 30,000 tons. On October 20, the Department of Commerce of Henan Province, the Provincial Department of Finance, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and the Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued the "Henan Province 2021 Provincial Pork Reserve Work Plan", which plans to collect and store 3350 tons of pork.
"The second round of pork storage effectively stabilized market confidence and played a significant role in boosting pig prices." Liu Quanxing, chairman of Henan Bohui Feed Co., Ltd., said that in addition to entering the fourth quarter, the weather turned cold, and pork consumption increased significantly, driving pig prices up. "Pork prices are expected to rise further in the short term, reaching a price high in mid-November, when it is expected to reach about 18-20 yuan per kilogram."
"Judging from the current trend of the pig market, the pig price decline in November will not be too long, and it is equipped to rebound." Because the overall output of this time period is small, the overall demand is large, which is a real shortage of supply. This wave of rising tide will start immediately, pig farmers must grasp the time to sell pigs, and the rebound of this wave will be very powerful. Industry experts said.
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