Policy suppression, coal "three musketeers" fell more than once; "alcohol" want to move, can the methanol rebound be sustained?

On October 29, the domestic commodity futures market closed up and down. In terms of increases, red dates rose more than 5%, methanol, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon rose more than 4%, japonica rice, palm oil rose more than 3%, styrene, pulp, soybean oil, fuel oil, vegetable oil rose more than 2%; in terms of decline, coking coal fell more than 10%, thermal coal fell more than 8%, coke fell more than 7%, iron ore fell more than 5%, glass, pigs fell more than 3%, ethylene glycol, rapeseed fell more than 2%.

Message Alerts

1. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment said on Friday that it will actively and steadily implement the treatment of loose coal, increase the elimination and rectification of coal-fired boilers and furnaces, and basically eliminate coal-fired boilers below 35 steam tons. Upgrade and treat boilers and furnaces that use inefficient treatment processes. At the same time, it will also accelerate the pollution control of diesel trucks, accelerate the construction of special railway lines and intermodal transportation and unloading connection facilities, accelerate the promotion of "public to iron" of ore dredging in coastal ports, and enhance the transportation capacity of existing special lines.

2. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment said on Friday that it will do a good job of "looking back" at the production capacity of steel. Grasp the staggered peak production work during the heating season of the steel industry, guide relevant cities to formulate steel peak production plans, make overall planning and careful deployment, inspect the steel pressure output and staggered peak production measures one by one, and supervise the implementation.

3. According to mysteel survey results, the operating rate of 121 independent silicon manganese sample enterprises increased by 1.33% to 52.56% this week, and the increase for three consecutive weeks refreshed the two-month high, but the growth rate slowed down significantly, and the average daily output increased by 229 tons to 21963 tons to a new 7-week high.

4, the London Metal Exchange (LME): aluminum stocks decreased by 8550 tons, copper stocks decreased by 3475 tons, nickel stocks decreased by 312 tons, lead stocks decreased by 200 tons, tin stocks decreased by 285 tons, zinc stocks decreased by 325 tons.

Analysis of key varieties

steam coal

The intraday coal "three musketeers" continued to decline, and the main contracts of intraday bifocal and thermal coal futures once fell to a halt. As of the close, the main contract of thermal coal futures closed down 8.64% at 973 yuan / ton, which has fallen by more than 50% since this month.

On the news side, the official WeChat message of the Intraday Development and Reform Commission said that the coal production costs of all coal-producing provinces and key coal enterprises in the country were recently investigated. Preliminary summary results show that the cost of coal production is significantly lower than the current coal spot price, and there is room for coal prices to continue to adjust. In addition, in response to the news that the price of thermal coal was uniformly formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday at a benchmark price of 440 yuan per ton, including tax, the highest floating range of 20%, after verification by the relevant media, the opinion is still in the discussion stage and has not been rejected. However, many departments believe that it is possible to reduce prices in a reasonable and rhythmic manner, but not suddenly and sharply reduce prices. It can be seen from this that the regulation and control of the policy section is still the same, and the price of coal will continue to be suppressed.

Fundamentally, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices dominates market sentiment, the price of coal at the pit mouth of the production area continues to fall, and the coal supply and inventory of power plants have increased significantly. In terms of downstream demand, the mentality of buying up and not buying down makes the near future intuitive. However, as the weather gradually becomes colder, the demand for coal will gradually increase; after the full heating in the north is turned on in November, the demand for coal will increase significantly.

Guomao Futures said that sentiment and policies still dominate the market, the risk is uncontrollable, and the liquidity of the disk is exhausted after the upper limit of the warehouse is guaranteed, and it is recommended that investors avoid related varieties.

methanol

As of today's close, the main methanol contract closed up 4.81% at 2853 yuan / ton, leading the energy sector. The decline in methanol during the week is mainly due to the policy control of thermal coal on the cost side, and it is expected that the price of thermal coal will be uniformly set as a benchmark price. However, today's news came out that many departments believe that coal prices cannot suddenly and sharply reduce prices, but they can be rationally and rhythmically lowered. Market panic was eased and methanol rebounded sharply.

Fundamentally, no methanol plant is planned to stop next week, but it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of gas limit on the start of gas head plants in southwest and other places. In the implementation of the national policy of "restricting industry and protecting civilian use" in the winter of previous years, China's gashead methanol plant may be stopped one after another, and the current production capacity is about 4 million tons. On the demand side, with the sharp decline in methanol, the gradual recovery of downstream profits will also drive the rise in the willingness of methanol to receive goods downstream, and methanol demand may rebound. In terms of ports, this week's methanol port inventory as a whole to the warehouse, east China mainstream region to the ship volume is acceptable, but the pick-up of goods increased significantly, inventory has declined; no import ships in South China unloaded, but domestic cargo replenished in large quantities, the overall narrow range accumulation.

Jinxin Futures believes that methanol prices still have upward momentum under the subsequent stimulation of methanol supply reduction caused by domestic gas restrictions, methanol demand recovery expectations and low inventories. However, short-term coal prices are still not stabilized by policy disturbances, and beware of the risk that coal prices will continue to decline.

Jujube

The main jujube contract rose strongly on Friday, closing up 5.36% at 14340 yuan / ton, leading the futures market. However, from this week's point of view, the main contract of red dates 2201 is still sharply down, with a weekly decline of more than 6%.

South China Futures analysis said that the current gray jujube has entered the lower tree period, most areas have begun to lay down the tree, it is expected that the concentrated tree time will be maintained at about 20 days, the current quotation of the production area is chaotic, due to the higher expectations of jujube farmers, the price is slightly higher than the previous period, but the actual transaction is a small amount, it is still the buyer and seller game stage, the current tree is more than half of the time the price or gradually clear. What needs to be paid attention to is the control of the epidemic, the entry of merchants into Xinjiang in medium- and high-risk areas, and the upgrading of logistics vehicles entering and leaving Xinjiang. This year's new season jujube production is less than expected, the market acquisition body will continue to enter Xinjiang to purchase the new season of jujube, now the market on the new season of jujube price discussion is more enthusiastic, the futures market volatility is also larger, short-term suggestions for the main contract for the time being.

Focus on events

1. 20:30 US September Core PCE Price Index YoY & Mth

2. 20:30 U.S. Personal Expenditure for September

3. 20:30 Canada GDP for August

4. 21:45 CHICAGO PMI in October, USA

5. 22:00 Final Us University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for October