Yang Yang: The bond market in the fourth quarter may be a phased market

"Since the end of July, the bond market has entered a wide range of shock markets, which fully reflects the sharp differentiation of positive and bearish factors in the market, and it is expected that there may be phased investment opportunities in the fourth quarter, but the duration may be shorter." We will invest in short-term, high-rated credit bonds mainly in the form of leverage, use interest rate bonds to do a good job in the swing, and pay attention to preventing the risk of credit debt default. Talking about the investment strategy in the fourth quarter, Yang Yang, one-year fund manager of China Canada Juxin Pure Bond, said.

Three types of institutional investment experience

Yang Yang has nearly 8 years of fixed income investment experience, spanning three types of financial institutions: banks, securities companies and funds. His experience in different types of institutions has enabled Yang Yang to improve his investment philosophy and logic, while adapting to the asset allocation styles of different institutions. In Yang Yang's view, the amount of funds of the bank is relatively large, the allocation of assets is far more than the transaction-type assets, in the investment more attention to the market trend, seize the big band, the investment style is more stable, dilute the frequent transactions and operations; brokerage fixed income investment scale is not large, flexible positions, in the duration of the position is more sensitive to market adjustment, this feature requires investment managers to do a good job of refined investment, do not let go of small bands; and in the public offering fund, because the management is the most transparent, standardized and strict, and many funds for retail investors, There will be more consideration for liquidity, and the position and duration will be relatively more flexible.

Talking about his investment philosophy, Yang Yang believes that investment is based on forward-looking research, insight into macro fundamentals and investor sentiment, and strive to seize the general trend of the market, do a good job in fine management of investment, and pursue relatively deterministic investment opportunities. "For example, after the money shortage in 2014, banking institutions allocated more assets, bringing about a wave of debt bull market that lasted for nearly three years after 2014, and it is crucial to seize the big trend and big band."

Coupon income and timing

Outstanding contribution to performance

According to the data, as of September 7, the one-year return of China JiaJuxin Pure Bond A, co-funded by Lian Xiaochan and Yang Yang, has been 4.05% this year and 5.06%, leading the performance of similar bond investments. When it comes to performance attribution, Yang Yang analyzed that the most important thing is the relatively certain coupon income, and at the same time, the timing has also achieved good results.

Yang Yang revealed that the fund began to build positions in September last year, but the bond market was still in the adjustment range from September last year to January this year, because the fund maintained a short duration and low leverage during the opening period, and did not suffer much loss during the bond market adjustment period, and from February this year, the fund began to increase its position, after the second quarter of the RRR cut, the monetary policy turned to confirmation, the fund position increased rapidly, and seized this wave of bond bull market.

In addition, the closed operation mode of China Plus Juxin Pure Bond, which is open regularly for one year, also allows the fund to take into account the balance of liquidity and profitability, and the closed operation of the fund for one year can avoid the impact of market fluctuations leading to frequent redemption operations of short-term funds on liquidity, and the fund manager can also rest assured that the leverage and duration can be allocated to improve the efficiency of asset allocation.

Yang Yang said: "The possibility of further easing of monetary policy in the second half of the year is limited, and there is a high probability that it will maintain a stable and sustained level, such a market environment can be appropriately leveraged for short-term credit bonds, and the risk of interest rates is not high, at this time, adding some leverage is more competitive than unleveraged yields." ”

Bullish short-duration credit bonds

In Yang Yang's view, the volatility of the bond market is large, which fully reflects the great differentiation of the market's favorable and bearish factors.

From the analysis of favorable factors, first, the economic situation this year will still maintain a downward trend; second, the valuation of the current bond market has not yet returned to the historical average level, and the overall bond market is still undervalued. From the perspective of bearish factors, one is that monetary policy is appropriately relaxed, and the market interest rate is lower than the central bank's policy interest rate in stages, and the possibility of monetary policy continuing to relax is small; second, from the perspective of exchange rate constraints, the current US interest rate hike has led to the depreciation of the renminbi, and the market's concern about capital outflow is also increasing; third, pork prices are rising, and investors' concerns about inflation also pose a certain pressure on the bond market. At present, Yang Yang is optimistic about short-term credit bonds and is ready to do a good job in the swing when investing in interest rate bonds.

The fund will be open for subscription and redemption recently, Yang Yang said: "This fund is mainly for relatively conservative and stable investors, its expected return level is higher than that of monetary funds, while the risk is lower than that of partial debt hybrid funds, hoping to bring medium and high yield and medium and low risk holding experience." ”

This article originated from China Fund News

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