This year's property market can be described as big news, for the real estate participants who are already on the cusp of the "cusp", whether it is a developer, a real estate agent, or a buyer, it should not be too much to use the word "confused" to describe.
Once upon a time, how beautiful they were, in various rich lists, there are often real estate developers, but in some authoritative lists this year, the top ten have not had a real estate developer, at this time, let many real estate practitioners also lament, "yesterday's scenery, is no longer the past."
And the real estate intermediary industry is the same, before from time to time to hear the sales elite annual income of 2 million, or even 5 million news, the so-called "good year, 5 years not hungry", now, it seems to feel that there is no feeling of the next dun, half a year does not open a single, Shenzhen has 3 real estate agents closed every day, and Hangzhou, Shanghai officials have begun to intentionally guide the "deintermediation", real estate agent practitioners can not help but pinch a sweat.
For buyers, it is also deeply experienced, in the past two years, we have not heard what "Zhejiang house group", "Wenzhou house group", "Shanghai house group" and other voices, indicating that the attractiveness of real estate is decreasing, and the era of making money when buying a house is gone.
Why is this happening? I think that everyone may understand the reasons differently, but one thing is common, that is, the real estate development environment has begun to change, such as slowing urbanization, just less and less demand, the population birth rate continues to decline, the momentum of the takeover is insufficient, and the housing vacancy rate is higher. More importantly, house prices have also reached a stage high, and the upward momentum is decaying. In fact, not only that, after entering this year, there are still "two stress" tests in the property market, and the house will become a "burden"?
First, the era of "common wealth" has arrived, three distributions have been put on the agenda, and real estate wealth has become an unavoidable topic.
At present, the income we obtain is mainly from the first distribution and the second distribution, in fact, under this distribution mechanism, our gap between rich and poor is still relatively large, according to the official data released, the Gini coefficient in 2018 is 0.47, which belongs to the international income gap (between 0.4-0.5). Everyone knows that our family wealth is mainly concentrated in real estate, the average proportion is about 70%, in a sense, the wealth gap between families and families is actually the gap between real estate. Therefore, the three distributions cannot avoid the topic of real estate wealth.
How are the three distributions divided? Judging from the public information, it is mainly high-income people who realize the redistribution of wealth through donations and other forms under the premise of voluntariness and under the constraints of morality and merit. However, the role of self-consciousness alone may be relatively limited, so the People's Forum network, which is in charge of the People's Daily, published an article on August 31 entitled "The Central Government Sets the Tone!" How can the "common prosperity" of 1.4 billion people be achieved? In this, this has been explained, and it is mentioned in the part "Promoting the Process of Common Prosperity in Multiple Fields":
Adjust the gap in property stock. More targeted policies related to capital tax and property tax have been introduced to prevent excessive property income disparities.
It can be understood that the first is to regulate the existing wealth, and secondly, to adjust it through the form of taxation, which is nothing more than real estate tax, vacancy tax and inheritance tax, etc., to prevent excessive intergenerational transmission of wealth. For families who mainly rely on real estate as wealth, too many houses must have an impact, because it is not in line with the direction of wealth regulation. In this way, people's concept of buying a house may change: the proportion of real estate in the family wealth arrangement may gradually give way, and for the property market, non-rigid demand will decline.
Second, the real estate tax pilot has come, the cost of holding links has increased, and the property market may usher in a "selling tide".
Brewing for many years of real estate tax finally ushered in the pilot reform, for the current property market can be described as a "powerful blow", according to my understanding of some of the city's early hot plate, there has been a significant decline in the number of applicants, the reason is that, in addition to the demand for self-occupation, those investment needs began to close, after all, since they are investors, who do not have a few houses, if they buy again, they are worried that the future holding cost is not cost-effective.
Some researchers have calculated an account, according to the average tax rate of real estate tax implemented in the United States, Japan, South Korea and other mainstream countries 1%, a set of 3-5 million houses in large cities, a year to pay taxes is 3-5 million, a year's rent may basically be used to pay taxes, if there are more houses, it will be levied according to the progressive tax rate, its tax rate is higher, to put it bluntly, even if it is 365 days of rental, the probability is unable to cover the real estate tax. The same is true for other small and medium-sized cities, although the total price is lower, the rent is also low, and it is also difficult to cover the cost of ownership. In this case, families with many houses may liquidate their houses, and according to the experience of mainstream countries in levying real estate taxes, the market will usher in a "selling tide" in the year before the levy.
The property market in the above two stress tests, whether it is buyers, but also including people who hold real estate, from everyone's comments, we can see that the mentality is more or less wavering, more than one real estate big V said, these days there are many fans in the same question: now there are several properties in hand, do you want to throw them in advance?
I think that since the state has introduced relevant policies, how can it not know the corresponding impact. Just as the state mentioned the first key word of the real estate tax pilot work in this important meeting: actively and steadily promote and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market. There is no doubt that the word "stable" is the core, which is the basis for the implementation of all new policies, and to put it bluntly, the new policies will not cause the market to fluctuate significantly. Coincidentally, the article "Common Prosperity Needs Steady Development of the Real Estate Market" published by the Central Media Economic Daily on October 27 is an urgent response to some people's concerns, which describes "holding housing" as follows:
Holding housing is an important channel for increasing property income, and increasing the property income of urban and rural residents in the housing category will be conducive to expanding the size of middle-income groups. It should fully meet the basic housing needs of urban and rural residents such as just needs and improvement, and at the same time realize housing and housing, it can also effectively increase their property income.
This passage of 89 words is a clear response to the question of whether "holding real estate" will be wealth or burdensome in the future, and at least 3 signals are released:
First of all, it is affirmed that housing is an important channel for family property income, and the preservation and appreciation of real estate is also a normal phenomenon;
Secondly, most families take real estate as their main wealth, which is in line with the "olive-shaped" wealth distribution pattern of "large in the middle and small at both ends" mentioned by public affluence, which is actually in line with the current overall situation.
Third, the two types of people are relieved, and it can be said that they have taken a "reassuring pill". Supporting just need and improved demand to buy a house is actually an indirect recognition of the current practice of just need and improvement of the nature of the property, and supports the increase in its wealth income.
Of course, the article also said that increasing housing property income is not to encourage speculation, which is consistent with the spirit of "housing and not speculation" that we have been advocating in recent years, which should be clear. According to my understanding, within the scope of the purchase restriction policy allowed by the state, there is nothing wrong with having the financial ability to buy a house and hold an appropriate property, and it will be protected by relevant laws and regulations, whether it is the current real estate tax, or even including future vacancy tax, inheritance tax, etc., most of which should be based on this.
In the final analysis, it is very normal for a family to have two sets of just needed or improved houses, there is no need to hear that the wind is rain, life is business as usual, this is glorious, not a "mouse" crossing the street, as the People's Daily recently published a commentary article said: common prosperity depends on common struggle.
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