Yuan Keding's "small data"
Wen | Chen Lumin
I saw an article on the Internet saying that one of the important reasons why Yuan Shikai restored himself as emperor and moved against the tide of history was that he suffered the loss of poor information, was deceived by others, and misjudged the situation. If there was big data information technology at that time, he could see the general trend of the world and the people's aspirations, and he might not risk the world's great disobedience and become a thief of the country.
This statement is a family view, and it seems to have some truth, so let's listen to it. Judging from the historical records, Yuan Shikai did suffer the loss of "small data". In order to become crown prince, his eldest son Yuan Keding did everything possible to encourage Lao Tzu, who wanted to be called emperor, and did not hesitate to spend 30,000 yuan to hire someone to fake a copy of the "Shuntian Times", which published messages supporting the imperial system every day, which was read exclusively for Yuan Shikai alone, which lasted for a long time.
The data of this fake newspaper is not only small and fake, but in the name of big data, it has thrown yuan shikai's favor, and published articles from all over the world that support him as emperor, so that he can see it with great excitement and intoxication, believing that he is in line with the people's will when he is emperor, and that the time and place are favorable, and the ambition to be called emperor is more and more inflated, and as a result, he embarks on a road of no return, which is pointed out by thousands of people and stinks for thousands of years. In the end, Yuan Shikai, who was angry and hateful, bid farewell to the world in extreme disappointment. Before he died, he called Yuan Keding and said, "It was you who harmed me, it was you who harmed me, it was you who harmed me!" ”
Yuan Shikai also has a source of "small data", that is, the clamor of "the six gentlemen of the security". In particular, Yang Du's repeated lobbying on restoration, clever tongue like a spring, the ceiling is chaotic, so that old Yuan is in the middle of the heart, listening to it is particularly comfortable, especially smooth. Yang Du advocated the imperial system of "The Theory of Saving the Country by the Constitution of the Monarchy", and Yuan Shikai was even more tireless in reading it, personally giving him a plaque inscription, calling him "Kuangdai Yicai". When Yuan Shikai finally died, he finally understood that he had the right "small data" on Yang Du, and kept complaining that "Yang Du mistook me!" ”
"Pillow Wind" is also the source of Yuan Shikai's "small data". He has a wife and nine concubines, all looking forward to the ascension of the chicken dog to heaven after the old Yuan ascends the throne, the six relatives are all honored, and he has made a concubine and a noble concubine, and he also instigates the wind and ignition for him every day, and cheers him up. Especially for empress Yu, as soon as the phoenix robe was made, she happily took a picture with the "imperial daughters"; the night before ascending the throne, she lost sleep all night because of excitement and panic. Yuan Shikai spent the night at his aunt's wife's place, all he heard was his neighbors, how could his relatives and friends eagerly look forward to the news of his yellow robes and teach him how not to move?
Just imagine, if there was big data technology at that time, Yuan Shikai could accurately understand how many people in the country supported him to sit facing south, what is the real people's desire, he would certainly not be fooled by his son's fake newspaper, nor would he listen to the temptation of Yang Du's horse ass essence and the pillow wind of his aunts, and perhaps he would be cold and called the emperor ambitious and restrain the horse from the cliff. On the other hand, even if he wants to take a desperate risk, he will accurately grasp the whereabouts of cai Yi, who is a big troublemaker in his heart, and will not let the tiger return to the mountain and let the Yunnan Protectorate Army become a climate; he will accurately strike at various opponents, beat them and beat them, and break each one, even if he is called the empress, he will not collapse so quickly and so tragically.
Of course, this is all a technical analysis, which does not hinder the direction of the historical trend. Philosophy says that internal causes are the basis of change, and external causes are conditions of change. Yuan Shikai wants to call the emperor an internal cause, which is also what he thinks about, remembers, and remembers for many years, which is the dream he has struggled for all his life, whether there is big data or not, how much information he has, and ultimately he has to take this step. As for the "small data" provided by Yuan Keding and Yang Du, it is only an external factor that promotes the accelerated change of things, which is nothing more than adding two whips to him on the road to restoration.
The final ending of the story is dramatic. One day, Yuan Shikai's third daughter Yuan Jingxue felt tasteless in her mouth, let the servant go out to buy black-skinned crisp broad beans, and accidentally found that the "Shuntian Times" with broad beans was completely different from what her father read every day.
Yuan Keding's "small data" was exposed, Yuan Shikai was so angry that he almost turned his back, he had engaged in a lifetime of conspiracies and tricks, and he was actually deceived by the small beast for so long, and now it is difficult to ride the tiger and lose ground. From this point of view, in the ranks of the "pit daddies" of the past dynasties, Yuan Keding was also a leader even if he was not the originator, and his "small data" pushed Yuan Shikai to the stove to bake, making him discredited.
However, to be fair, there is no "small data" of Yuan Keding, Yuan Shikai is going to drive history backwards, don't complain about this and complain about that, saying that everything else is a pretext, do you really want to be an emperor, who can tie you to the dragon chair?