On the afternoon of October 29, after another week of falling, methanol closed around 2850, down 1300+ from its high of October 12, 4235, back to the level of mid-August. How crazy the rise ahead is, how complete the fall is now. In the midst of this fall, I don't know how many people fell into it?
Hello everyone, I am Kankan, a hard-working and serious analyst. First talk about methanol, after the evening busy I will write a thread, these two varieties of trading volume is relatively large, many friends are deeply set. On this weekend, I will give you an in-depth analysis, the content is as simple and easy to understand as possible, and it takes about 5-10 minutes to read, which will definitely inspire everyone.
First of all, the conclusion: it is expected that there is still a possibility of upward growth in methanol in the later stage. #甲醇 #
In order to see the follow-up trend of methanol, we must start from three aspects:
1. Related varieties
The previous article has been popularized with everyone, methanol production mainly relies on natural gas and coal, while domestic methanol is mainly based on coal, and the most direct correlation variety of futures is thermal coal.
Since September, methanol futures have risen sharply due to higher coal prices on the cost side. However, with the recent continuous decline in thermal coal by the policy hit, the direct impact is manifested in the continuous decline in methanol profits, according to the data, this week's coal-to-methanol profits were as low as -1034 yuan / ton, which is the lowest value in the past five years! In the context of such profits, there is a possibility of loss-making maintenance and reduction of the burden of coal-to-methanol plants in the mainland.
In addition, according to the latest news from the National Climate Center, it is expected to enter la Niña state in October and form a weak to moderate intensity La Niña event in the winter. Looking back at the trend of domestic natural gas prices in recent years, domestic natural gas prices have risen sharply in 2017 and 2020, corresponding to the La Niña climate in these two years. In the context of this year's global energy tension, there has been a sharp rise in natural gas prices overseas, and it is expected that natural gas prices may reach a new high this year.
It seems that there is still room above methanol.
Second, the relationship between supply and demand
In the downstream, with the recent sharp decline in methanol prices, the profits of methanol downstream devices have been slightly repaired, and the operating rate of units such as methanol to olefins, acetic acid, MTBE and dimethyl ether has rebounded slightly. After the sharp decline in methanol prices, the gradual recovery of downstream profits will also drive the rise in the willingness of methanol to receive goods downstream, and methanol demand may rebound.
In addition, from the operating rate data of natural gas to methanol, from November to February of the following year, the operating rate of natural gas to methanol plants will decline significantly, and the supply of corresponding methanol will decrease.
Judging from the methanol inventory data, the methanol inventory of mainland enterprises and the methanol inventory of the port are significantly lower than in 2019 and 2020, and with the loss of methanol profits and the seasonal overhaul of temperament methanol, it is difficult for domestic methanol stocks to have a large accumulation.
In this way, there is still room above methanol. #甲醇期货 #
Third, market sentiment
The two points I said above may not be clear for ordinary retail investors, but these data are clear in professional institutions and there, and what the main force will do, I think you read this article, you should be able to guess.
Methanol has strong fundamentals, technically speaking, it has taken a big A word, and it has also reached the key node of rebound. With the gradual bottoming of coal, the restrictions of thermal coal on methanol will gradually be relaxed, and the main force will vote with its feet to go to polymethanol.
After all, retail investors believe that the truest truth is "homeopathy", and when the trend begins, retail investors will undoubtedly follow the trend.
Finally, let's sum up:
The direction of methanol next week is undoubtedly to see it climb, as for the way, it may be a box shock upwards, or it may be a fall - rebound - a slight decline - rebound and so on. The idea is: go long at a low price. #期货 #
Well, that's all I'm talking about methanol, and I'm a kankan, an analyst who's committed to getting everyone who follows me to take off. More questions welcome to ask me Oh ~ #期货 [super words] #
In addition, I would like to ask you, is what I written simple enough to understand?