Recently, news of a bumper harvest has come from all apple-producing areas. But the futures apple is unusual, in the case of bearish but soared, today's opening directly higher 300 points, and then soared 300 points, nearly 600 points of the rise directly up and down! Is this reasonable? This, should it? Next, is it to rush to 9000 or return to 6000?
Hello everyone, I am Kankan, a hard-working and serious analyst. Today, let's talk about the crazy apple, a variety that has soared by two or three thousand points since the Mid-Autumn Festival. What is the logic behind its rise? What's next? (Those who do not want to see the analysis can directly pull to the bottom to see the conclusion)
Let's take a look at the reasons for the rise:
One: demand impact.
Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the overall domestic temperature was high, and it continued until the southern part of the National Day was still in the middle of summer, and the demand for apples has been low, dominated by summer fruits such as watermelon. However, with the beginning of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the demand for the festival began to expand, and the watermelon went down to the market until the demand for the National Day was further expanded.
Second: the impact of bad weather.
At the end of the National Day, the country ushered in a cold wave, heavy rainfall and hail hit many places, especially some apple-producing areas were directly affected, causing some bad expectations for the fall and supply of apples, and apple futures prices began to rise steadily. #期货 #
Third: the plate noodles are fried hot, and retail investors follow the trend.
The weather disturbance before the listing of new fruits continues, superimposed on the recent apples listed in some areas there are problems such as more fruit rust, and institutions have begun to speculate on the worry of the rate of excellent fruits, causing a large number of retail investors to chase up, the main force to pull again, the price smoothly rose and stopped.
So, where do you go next? Will the 2201 contract go to 9000, or is it expected to return to 6000?
We must look at this problem very objectively, analyze it from the fundamental and technical aspects, and cannot rely on our own feelings. I tweeted today that the space above the apple is limited, telling friends who are empty to not panic, and as a result, a bunch of people come to talk coldly, doing their best to mock things, which is very emotional.
If I remember correctly, it is also this group of people who usually do the wrong thing and cry. The mentality is extremely unstable, the tailwind laughs and giggles against the wind, and the opening of the mouth is "homeopathy" and "counter-trend". Do you know what a "turnaround" is? According to what you say, you can win by going with the trend all the time, isn't that going to heaven? And why look for analysis everywhere on the Internet?
From a fundamental point of view, the recent weather has improved, and many apple-producing areas in China have begun to harvest heavily, and there must be a wave of price corrections. From the perspective of the purchase price of the production area, it is currently a situation of east and west: as of the 24th, a large number of apples in the east and west are on the market. Shandong's acquisition enthusiasm is high, the western production area is slightly deserted; the main point of speculation is the excellent fruit rate, and the current apple spot in the purchase period shows that the fruit in some production areas is small, and the cleanliness of the fruit surface is poor.
However, the fruit rate is only a concern at this stage, with more apples in the production area, the fruit rate will soon no longer be a problem of discussion, time to advance, demand has no large room for growth, fruit price correction is inevitable.
Technically, Apple's 2201 contract has soared nearly 3,000 points since the beginning of September! Now that another limit has been pulled, the probability is that the main force is tempting more. Seven or eight thousand hands to seal the disk, one or two thousand hands to open, the main bullish heart is not aligned, apple's rise and stop is not like the early thermal coal, there is no sign of direct sealing, it looks very unstable, because many bulls eat meat and want to run, this high position does not run, when the time comes, everyone runs slowly together How to do?
Can you see that the last 5 minutes of the morning closing limit board has been opened again, is this signal of enticing bearish not obvious? Just the main force directly shouted "Come on, you can chase more, get on the car!" "Then you jump out of the car while you get in the car, and at some point you will find out: I'm going, it's a car to the cliff!" #苹果期货 #
Conclusion: Apple has a high probability of not going to 9000, and it still looks at 6000 after the outlet. Because whether it is from the fundamental or technical side, Apple's crazy rise is mostly hype, I hope that everyone calm down, do not blindly chase the rise, of course, if you have not yet entered the market friends, ready to enter the short, or light warehouse is better. After all, this is a big market, as long as it is stained, you can eat meat, there is no need to be greedy, and the control of risk is the first.
What do you think of Apple's next move? Or is it full of "homeopathic" sets? We'll see.