It is human luck to be able to enjoy solitude.
galaxy. ESO
People look up at the stars in search of answers—answers that no mortal can find.
The famous Dracker equation holds that the number of Chinese in the universe depends on some unknown parameters, such as how many planets there are, the probability of life being born, the duration of civilization, and so on.
In the context of global scientific and technological progress, some of these parameters have been obtained with more reliable values. In light of this, a number of scientists from the Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory recently analyzed the number of civilizations that may exist in the Milky Way galaxy and their distribution in time and space.
The scientists involved in the study took into account a range of factors that could affect the development of intelligent life. These factors include the number of terrestrial planets around heliomorphic stars, the frequency of supernova explosions, the likelihood and time required for civilization to develop when conditions are right, and the probability that civilizations tend to self-destruct.
The analysis shows that in the Milky Way, civilizations tend to emerge within a space range of 13,000 light-years from the galactic center, and at a time point 8 billion after the birth of the Milky Way.
Earth is about 25,000 light-years away from the galactic center, and human civilization emerged about 13.5 billion years after the birth of the Milky Way. That is to say, human civilization is located on the edge of the galactic civilization concentration area, and it appeared later.
If the emergence of life is not uncommon, and the emergence of intelligent life is the end result of the evolution of life, then not only is there a possibility of other civilizations in the Milky Way, but most of them are concentrated in a band of regions 13,000 light-years away from the galactic center – because most of the Sun-like stars in the Milky Way are concentrated here.
Researchers believe that most of the extraterrestrial civilizations that still exist in the milky way today are relatively young, because intelligent life tends to self-destruct on longer timescales. Even at the peak of civilizations 5 billion years ago, most galactic civilizations had annihilated themselves.
The probability of civilization annihilation is the most uncertain point in research. But even if a civilization doesn't have a high probability of self-destruction in a hundred years, there are very few civilizations left in the galaxy today.
If civilization always tends to self-destruct, then the loneliness of civilization may be its innate destiny.
reference
A Statistical Estimation of the Occurrence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Milky Way Galaxy
https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.07902