After the sharp dive in the coal series on October 19, most of the domestic commodity futures were affected and turned down, but the troika of rapeseed soybean oil palm oil was still strong, completely unaffected by the market's empty voice. It is really a difficult posture to shake the mountains and shake the grease army.
So what makes greases stand alone?
There are several main reasons:
The first is the surge in energy this year, which is a big increase in demand for biofuels as an alternative to energy, and oils and fats are the main materials of biodiesel. The recent La Niña phenomenon in the United States will further strengthen the rise in crude oil and natural gas. This has widened the supply gap for greases and oils.
Then there was the shortage of workers in Malaysian palm oil before the start of the epidemic, which was exacerbated by the epidemic, and a large number of foreign harvest workers in previous years were also blocked abroad. This has put Malaysia's palm production likely to fall below 18 million tonnes this year, the lowest in the past five years.
China and India, as important global importers and consumers of palm oil, have been greatly affected by the decline in Malaysia's exports this year, and port inventories have reached historic lows. In the fourth quarter, with seasonal factors, Malaysia's exports will decline.
Soybean oil has more positive factors than palm oil, due to the delay in port unloading caused by the new crown, and the decline in crushing due to the impact of power and gas rationing on the start of soybean crushing in oil mills. There is also a sharp rise in maritime prices that has led to a decrease in soybean imports and an increase in import costs. Many factors have given soybean oil prices a continuous upward momentum.
The crop disaster in Canada, the largest rapeseed grower, has also played a role in the troika of supply reduction and price consolidation.
The economic restart of various countries has also increased the demand for oils and fats. Under the influence of many favorable factors, the plunge in domestic black futures will cause some varieties dragged upward by the sharp rise of commodities to fall and pull back along with the black series, but they cannot touch the oils and fats that are already in tight supply. #期货操盘 #