Yesterday, Yanghe released the "2021 Third Quarter report", the main indicators are as follows
Revenue in the third quarter was RMB6.4 billion, up 16.66% year-on-year;
Revenue in the first three quarters was 21.942 billion yuan, an increase of 16% year-on-year;
Net profit in the third quarter was 1.551 billion yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year;
Net profit in the first three quarters was 7.213 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.37% year-on-year;
Non-net profit in the third quarter was 1.682 billion yuan, an increase of 22.95% year-on-year;
Non-net profit in the first three quarters was 6.85 billion yuan, an increase of 21.57% year-on-year;
By observing the above three sets of data, we can find 3 problems, which are also what we will focus on next, understand these 3 problems, and understand the three quarterly reports of Yanghe.
On July 15, 2021, Yanghe issued the Administrative Measures for the First Phase of the Core Backbone Shareholding Plan, which stipulates the performance appraisal criteria as follows: "The operating income in 2021 will increase by no less than 15% compared with 2020 and the operating income in 2022 will increase by no less than 15% compared with 2021." ”
In the third quarter, the growth rate of operating income was just a little higher than 15%, reaching 16%, which is why I call it "ambiguous".
According to the performance appraisal standards, the revenue growth rate in 2022 shall not be less than 15%. Therefore, this year, in the case of reaching the assessment standards, try to reduce the growth rate, so as to reduce the difficulty of reaching the assessment conditions next year, which is also the common sentiment of people, at this time, as investors, we only need to pay attention to whether the company has "put on a makeup" or "lied" to itself.
If it is only "put on a makeup", the makeup removal is only more real, which is acceptable for investors, after all, the disclosure of the statement in full accordance with the real business situation will definitely cause continuous fluctuations in performance. Therefore, listed companies will use accounting techniques to make the performance smoother.
If "a lie is told", investors need to pay attention.
Here, we can use two indicators to judge the true appearance of the enterprise.
The first indicator, the ratio of cash received from the sale of goods and the provision of services to operating income, that is, the ratio of cash received in the current period.
I once elaborated in the article "[Real Weekly Record] 20210505 market is boring, idle to read more" to explain the consistency of this indicator and the Yanghe pressure situation, the logic of which is that when the supplier presses the goods to the channel merchant, the channel merchant is likely to reduce the enthusiasm for payment.
There are 2 points to note here.
1) The liquor industry usually receives payment in advance, and the current "cash received from the sale of goods and the provision of services" does not correspond to the current period of "operating income", but there is a dislocation in time. Although the cash received cannot directly correspond to the revenue, it does not affect the enthusiasm of dealers to pay attention to the use of this indicator, so as to speculate on the channel situation.
2) "Cash received from the sale of goods and services" includes VAT, while "operating income" does not include VAT, so a simple conversion is required to convert them into amounts excluding tax.
From 1 April 2019, Yanghe's VAT rate was reduced from 16% to 13%, so the cash received in the third quarter of 8.031 billion yuan should be divided by 1.13 and adjusted to 7.107 billion yuan excluding tax, with a cash-to-cash ratio of 111%.
This indicator is the same as in 2018, at least proving that the enthusiasm of dealers to pay money is the same as in 2018.
The second indicator, the change in contract liabilities.
Since the company is makeup, it always needs some cosmetics, and at this time, the contract liabilities are shining.
As a dealer pre-deposited the company's payment, when to calculate the operating income, when it is still counted as the advance collection, the company's adjustment range is relatively large.
When revenue is needed to increase, more advance receipts are included in operating income; when revenue is needed to slow down, delay the time for budget receipts to be included in revenue. Therefore, comparing the changes in this part, can we judge the company's real revenue to a certain extent?
By comparing the changes in contract liabilities, it can be seen that the contract liabilities increased by 993 million yuan in the third quarter of 2021. In order to make the amount of contract liabilities in different periods comparable to each other, we calculate a ratio using the contract liabilities increased in the current period / the operating income of the current period.
From 2021 to 2017, the ratio is 15.52%, -1.43%, 3.91%, 11.12%, 18.37%.
The ratio of 15.52% is second only to 18.37% in 2017, which can be said to be very excellent, and also confirms the above data, proving that the company's operating conditions have returned to the level of 2018. This ensures that the growth in operating income is healthy and has great potential.
As for why the company would rather increase its contract liabilities of nearly 1 billion yuan and control the growth rate of operating income, I think it is still to reduce the operating income base this year and pave the way for the completion of the equity assessment target next year.
But this is just a difference between three twilight and four twilight, and for the company's investors, sooner or later it will be cashed in.
Compared with the gratifying result of 16.66% revenue growth in the third quarter, the net profit fell by 13.1% year-on-year, here we explore the reasons?
In the third quarter, the attributable net profit was 1.551 billion and the non-attributable net profit was 1.682 billion, which means that there was a non-recurring profit and loss of -130 million in the third quarter.
Turning to page 2 of the Third Quarter Report 2021, there is a breakdown of non-recurring gains and losses.
It can be noted that this is mainly due to "gains and losses on changes in trading financial assets and investment gains on disposal of financial assets", which amounted to -160 million.
For this reason, I looked up this data for 2021-2017, which is the first time this data is negative.
This was due to a significant decrease in the profit or loss on changes in fair value held by Yanghe. According to the disclosure of enterprises in the past, it is usually disclosed in the quarterly report of financial asset investment, but in the third quarter of this year, many liquor companies have invariably chosen not to disclose, I don't know whether the CSRC has relaxed the disclosure conditions, or the trust part is not suitable for disclosure?
Therefore, I myself summarized and calculated the fair value change profit and loss of BOC Securities for Yanghe since its listing, as shown in the chart below.
In the third quarter, BOC Securities' share price fell from 20.59 yuan on June 30 to 15.02 yuan on September 30, bringing Yanghe a gain or loss of -440 million fair value changes.
In the first three quarters, the share price of BOC Securities fell from the closing price of 27.68 yuan on December 31, 2020 to 15.02 yuan on September 30, 2021, bringing a gain and loss of -562 million fair value changes to Yanghe.
Although the income of trading financial assets is not operational, the profit is real, so the investment cannot completely abandon non-recurring gains and losses.
However, the volatility of BOC Securities can have a distorted impact on net profit, so I will exclude BOC's fair value change profit and loss from the data to obtain "net profit attributable to the parent bank" (excluding the impact of income tax).
Excluding this impact, it can be found that in the third quarter of 2121, the "net profit attributable to the mother" increased by about 23% year-on-year, and the "net profit attributable to the mother" in the first three quarters of 21 also increased by about 23% year-on-year.
This growth rate is even better than the growth rate of "net profit deducted from non-attributable to the mother". It can be seen that in the third quarter of 2021, in addition to the sharp decline in the stock price of BOC Securities, the overall growth of Yanghe is very good.
So what do I think of this "annoying" BOC Securities? The conclusion is that it definitely makes money, but how much it makes depends on when the management sells. In the end, it should all be a hammer deal, and it is not easy to say whether the management will be able to continue to explore the investment opportunities of BOC Securities in the future.
But since I recognize it as a hammer deal, I don't plan to include it in corporate analysis in the future. The analysis of net profit is replaced by "net profit attributable to the mother", and the province's "should be established again".
People fell and kicked it out, rose and quickly installed it back........ In response to the line of "Journey to the West": "When I used to accompany me to see the moon, I called people a little sweet!" Now the new people are better than the old people, called the cow lady. ”
Unified standards, the future will save the need to worry about this constant fluctuation part, direct deduction will be obtained.
In the third quarter of 2021, taxes and surcharges were 1.209 billion, and the operating income for the current period was 6.4 billion, accounting for 18.89%. In the third quarter of 2020, the indicator was only 13.17%.
To this end, I have summarized this data from 2018 to 2021, as shown in the chart below.
Therefore, I guess two things are possible.
The first may be that the company sold more low-end liquor in the third quarter, resulting in an increase in the tonnage of the same revenue liquor.
Because the consumption tax is compound tax (you can reply to the consumption tax in the background to obtain detailed knowledge), the weight tax is not obvious in high-end liquor, but it will be more obvious in low-end liquor.
Second, it may be that the company's project investment in the expansion of production has increased, resulting in an increase in related taxes and fees.
Both points are speculations, and the actual situation is probably not verified until the annual report is published.
After reading this three-quarter report, my view of Yanghe has not changed. But it is more determined, this year's revenue growth rate will be affected by next year's assessment, it is estimated that it will not exceed 15% too much.
The final non-net profit should fall at around 7.5 billion, or because of the large number of low-end liquor sales, resulting in a decline in net profit margin, slightly below 7.5 billion.