China Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Ye Qing reported in Beijing
As of 9 o'clock on October 27, coking coal, coke and thermal coal futures have all fallen to a halt, and the main thermal coal contract has fallen below 1200 yuan / ton, hitting a low in nearly a month.
On October 26, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments deployed the clean-up and rectification of coal storage sites in coal-producing areas. According to relevant sources, there are a large number of unlicensed coal storage sites around some coal mines in the main coal producing areas such as Jinshaan and Mongolia, which provide convenience for illegal traders to hoard coal, seriously disrupt the normal operation order of the coal market, and problems such as safety and environmental protection are prominent.
The National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments held a special video conference demanding that the three provinces and regions of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Mongolia should pay close attention to organizing thorough investigations, strengthen supervision and rectification by category, standardize the management of the establishment of a reporting system for legal and compliant coal storage sites, ban coal storage sites that have not been approved or have not gone through the formalities of land use, environmental protection, and safety, and severely crack down on illegal profit-making behaviors such as hoarding and inflating coal prices by using illegal coal storage sites, so as to create a fair and orderly coal business market environment.
Industry insiders pointed out that a series of coal supply and price stabilization measures are expected to curb speculation and promote the coal market to return to rationality.
The National Development and Reform Commission initiates a price compliance review
In order to standardize the price index behavior and promote the healthy and orderly development of the price index market, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission recently set up a joint working group with relevant parties to launch the assessment and compliance review of all coal price index compilation and issuance units with national impact on all coal price index units with national impact in accordance with the Measures for the Administration of Important Goods and Services Price Index Behavior (Trial Implementation) (Order No. 43 [2021] of the National Development and Reform Commission).
Punitive measures such as interviews, public exposure, rectification within a time limit, suspension of release, and inclusion in the list of the untrustworthy will be employed in accordance with regulations for violations discovered during assessments and compliance reviews; where violations are constituted, the relevant departments are to pursue legal responsibility in accordance with law. In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission issued this document, which immediately became a hot topic in the market. At the same time, on October 26, the National Development and Reform Commission also issued a document saying that in accordance with the relevant laws and regulations, the National Development and Reform Commission is studying the inclusion of coal in the scope of commodities to stop huge profits, and has organized a cost-benefit survey of the coal industry to measure and determine the average price, average price difference rate, average profit margin and reasonable range of the coal market under normal circumstances.
On this basis, the National Development and Reform Commission will comprehensively consider the reasonable costs, normal profits and market changes in the coal industry, study and establish a long-term mechanism for coal market prices of "benchmark price + floating up and down", and strengthen the connection with the market-oriented electricity price mechanism for coal-fired power generation, while improving supporting measures and focusing on strengthening supervision.
The National Development and Reform Commission said that in accordance with the Price Law and relevant laws and regulations such as stopping profiteering, the National Development and Reform Commission is studying the establishment of a standardized coal market price formation mechanism to guide coal prices to stabilize in a reasonable range for a long time. In this regard, the person in charge of a price index agency told the "China Times" reporter that now the website can quote, but every day to the relevant departments to file, only after the filing, its price can be released to the public. Previously, futures fell faster than spot, and now the speed of spot decline is also accelerating.
Recently, the "coal defense war" has entered an accelerated state, and the results of long-term layout have emerged. According to the press conference of the State Mine Safety Supervision Bureau, as of now, 153 coal mines that meet the conditions for safety and supply have passed the audit, increasing the production capacity by about 220 million tons / year, and it is expected to increase coal production by 55 million tons in the fourth quarter. Xiao Xinjian, deputy director of the Energy Economy and Development Strategy Research Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, gave data that on October 18, China's daily coal output has exceeded 11.6 million tons, a new high this year. Since the end of September, a batch of production coal mines have been added, and the average daily output has increased by more than 1.2 million tons compared with September.
Xiao Xinjian said that looking at the current coal market situation, we must not only look at the price, but also see the production of coal. The symposium on ensuring supply and price stability of key enterprises in coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation held on October 19 made it clear that all coal mines in the fourth quarter should organize production according to full load safety under the premise of ensuring safety, and strive to achieve a daily coal output of more than 12 million tons.
Xiao Xinjian pointed out that the increase in coal production capacity has a positive effect on alleviating the tight supply and demand and stabilizing coal prices. This is due to the fact that since August, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with various ministries and commissions, and local governments, has continued to introduce policies to increase production and increase production. With the further release of coal mine nuclear production capacity, the gradual commissioning of coal mines, and the resumption of temporary suspension of coal mines, coal production is expected to further increase, and the demand for power generation and heating and people's livelihood coal will be effectively guaranteed. Coal prices are expected to fall back, and it is expected that after a transition period of 2-3 months, coal prices will show a sharp downward trend at the end of this year.
In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission said that since October 5, the coal supply of the national unified dispatch power plant has been greater than the coal consumption for 20 consecutive days, the coal storage level of the power plant has increased rapidly, and the safety guarantee capacity of thermal coal has been greatly improved. On October 24, the unified power plant supplied 7.14 million tons of coal, and the coal storage of the power plant reached 95.69 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons over the end of September, which can be used for 17 days. With the further release of coal production capacity and the completion of the overhaul of the Daqin Line, the coal supply of the power plant will be further improved.
In order to promote the healthy development of the coal market, the relevant policies to stabilize the price of coal. According to the announcement issued by Zhengshang, since the settlement on October 27, the trading margin standard of thermal coal futures 2111, 2112 and 2201 contracts has been adjusted to 40%, and the trading margin standard of thermal coal futures 2204, 2205, 2206, 2207, 2208, 2209 and 2210 contracts has been adjusted to 20%.
In this regard, Mr. Zhang, an analyst at a futures company, told the "China Times" reporter that the thermal coal futures contract continued to reduce its position downwards, which means that the capital risk aversion is strong. With the near-month contract margin reaching 40%, the liquidity of this variety is further reduced. Judging from the current supply and demand situation, the tightening of coal supply in the early stage has eased, and the spot price of coal is also falling.
The Daqin Railway completed its overhaul ahead of schedule
On October 26, it was learned from China Railway Taiyuan Bureau Group Co., Ltd. that in order to fully release the transportation capacity and fully serve the coal transportation task of power generation and heating this winter and next spring, the "China Heavy-duty First Road" Daqin Railway was successfully completed on the 25th after 22 days of intensive repair and construction, completing the construction task 3 days earlier than originally planned. From October 26, the non-construction day traffic of the Daqin Railway is expected to reach 1.3 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons of coal per day compared with the construction period, and an increase of nearly 150,000 tons per day compared with September.
It is understood that the Daqin Railway runs from Datong, Shanxi in the west to Qinhuangdao in Hebei in the east, and is an important energy channel for the "West Coal East Transport" in the main coal-producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. In order to meet the requirements for coal transportation for power generation and heating this winter and next spring, China Railway Taiyuan Bureau Group Co., Ltd. scientifically organized transportation to ensure the high level of transportation. As of October 25, the Daqin Railway has transported more than 25.3 million tons of coal, an average of more than 1 million tons per day, and the coal storage of the three major ports such as Qinhuangdao Port, which is supplied by the counterpart, has remained above 15.8 million tons.
At the same time, the China Coal Industry Association announced the operation of the coal economy in the first three quarters of 2021. According to the report, in the first three quarters, under the influence of multiple factors such as sustained and stable macroeconomic recovery, seasonal coal demand, and poor hydropower output, China's coal consumption maintained a rapid growth trend. Under the premise of ensuring safety, the coal industry has gone all out to do a good job in increasing coal production, ensuring supply and price stability, steadily releasing high-quality coal production capacity, gradually improving coal production, and continuously narrowing the decline in coal imports。
In general, the coal market is tightly supplied and demand, and prices fluctuate at high levels. The China Coal Industry Association predicts that coal supply will continue to grow this winter and next spring. As the production and operation activities of enterprises continue to recover, China's macro economy is expected to maintain a stable recovery trend. All regions and departments will strengthen cross-cycle adjustment, strive to keep the economy running in a reasonable range, promote economic stability and improvement, and it is expected that China's energy demand and electricity consumption will maintain rapid growth, which will form a support for coal demand.
On the whole, it is expected that during this winter and next spring, coal demand, especially coal demand for power generation and heating, will be relatively strong, coal supply is expected to maintain growth, coal supply and demand will be generally tight, and coal prices may fluctuate at a high level.
In addition, according to the reporter's understanding, with the government's measures to stabilize prices and ensure supply one after another, the transaction price of Qingang 5500 jumped from a high level and has fallen by more than 400. According to today's think tank, large mines have all cashed in on low-priced limit coal at the port. According to the recent deployment arrangement of "point-to-point" coal supply and transportation, Yitai Group determined on October 24 to supply a ship with a low-cost guaranteed supply of high-quality thermal coal with a load of 50,000 tons to Jiangyin Sulong Power Plant, and is expected to carry out berthing and loading operations on October 27.
At the same time, in order to further do a good job in energy supply assurance in the northeast region and alleviate the urgent need for coal burning for power plant users in the northeast region, on October 23, China Coal Group supplied 57,000 tons of high-quality thermal coal to Huaneng Yingkou Power Plant at a price of 1,200 yuan / ton. As a coal trader Mr. Li said, no one expected that the intensity of this regulation and control is so great, and now the management has new measures and new policies every day, which is really underestimating the influence of policy regulation.
According to the reporter's understanding, during the rapid rise in coal prices, most of the traders who held spot prices adopted a strategy of reluctance to sell under the pretext that the pressure on coal transportation increased due to the epidemic. The aim is to maintain a hoarding mentality, which is similar to the hoarding of pork last year and waiting for the price to rise before selling. Even if the regulatory authorities began to introduce measures to ensure the supply and price of coal in September, most coal traders believe that European and American countries have encountered an energy crisis, and coal prices will certainly continue to rise in the future.
However, these coal traders underestimated the ability of the relevant departments to regulate, for the current coal prices, the national policy measures are called timely rain, a good way to alleviate the current rapid rise in coal, but in order to stabilize the coal price market for a long time, it is also necessary to coordinate the work between coal and power companies. In order to prevent coal prices from rebounding again, the government should take measures in advance to strengthen control and control, leaving no room for speculation for those capital forces.
In this regard, Meng Xiangwen, an analyst in the coal industry of Shenwan Hongyuan, believes that the series of price limit policies issued by the National Development and Reform Commission have reversed the expectation of rising coal prices, terminal procurement has shown a delayed trend, and the tight supply and demand of coal in winter under the supply guarantee policy is expected to continue to ease.
Editor: Yan Hui Editor-in-chief: Xia Shencha
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