In the last two months of 2021, how to continue to ride the wind and waves?
In the Year of the Bull, there is no bull market, only more and more extreme markets, and structural markets that are interpreted to the extreme. The rotation of the plate is becoming more and more unexpected, the market is becoming more and more incomprehensible, and it is becoming more and more difficult for retail investors to make money.
It is true that last year's epidemic, in the face of sudden disasters, we can only react passively. Working together to fight the epidemic and overcome difficulties together, our purpose is the same, so there is basically no difference in the market. But in the post-pandemic era, global monetary easing and post-pandemic reconstruction (similar to post-war reconstruction after World War II) have led to explosive growth in wealth, accompanied by a major reshuffle of investment markets, which has made markets more complex and more difficult to invest.
2021 is only more than two months left, what should the next market do, in order to continue to ride the wind and waves?
- /// -
At last weekend's private meeting in Guangzhou ("Do More China" - Hong Rong's national tour, the first stop in Guangzhou), President Hong has already given the answer. From the perspective of investment, President Hong systematically expounded the principle and path of firmly "going long in China", helping investors maintain a clear understanding and make correct judgments in the torrent of information.
China has spent forty years to solve the problem of distorting commodity prices, so that commodities are no longer supplied by tickets, the price of commodities has been found, but the price of funds has been lost, the financing difficulties of private enterprises are still in place, the speed of China's economic development has declined, and the economic transformation has been difficult...
For the country's economy to transform, science and technology to develop, products must have higher added value, and the renminbi must also find its price. Only when the field of science and technology becomes stronger can we occupy an advantage in sino-US competition, and only when we are a strong country in science and technology can we realize the Chinese dream.
With the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the world pattern has been reshaped, rising in the east and falling in the west, national self-confidence has emerged spontaneously, and cultural self-confidence has spawned a big opportunity for "national tide".
Science and technology and finance are the means of a strong country, and cultural self-confidence is the soul of a strong country. The big era of capital has spawned a big era of science and technology and brought about a big era of national tide, which is three interlocking big times.
Today's China is ushering in an era of good investment comparable to that of the United States in the 1980s, accompanied by five major transfers of wealth:
Carbon emissions as a criterion for the realization of a large transfer of wealth (to achieve common prosperity between industries)
Through technology, wealth shifts from the elderly to the young (the era of science and technology)
Rising in the east and falling in the west, realizing the great transfer of wealth through brand domestic products (the era of national tide)
Equity investment, through the capital market to achieve a great transfer of wealth (capital era)
Strengthen the middle class, overthrow the three mountains by suppressing monopoly profiteering, etc. (the era of common prosperity)
In this context, some of the underlying logic of investment has quietly changed. National security is paramount, and people's well-being is paramount, which is a basic principle.
(Video source: "Do more china" - excerpt from Hong Rong's national lecture tour)
All shortcomings affecting national security need to be quickly filled (defense, finance, neck-pinching technology, etc.); all risks affecting national security must be eliminated (digital hegemony, demographic structure, food, energy, etc.).
National security issues require unprecedented attention. Because of the "post-epidemic era", the world is changing at an unprecedented speed, China is also developing at an alarming speed, and all walks of life have undergone earth-shaking changes. China's influence in the world is getting bigger and bigger, its popularity is getting higher and higher, and its right to speak is getting heavier and heavier.
It is precisely for this reason that the United States has been staring at China and trying to find ways to toss China, in this case, the security problems in many places will be problematic. And A shares have not been able to rise, to a certain extent, it is also for safety considerations.
There is also energy security, which has also risen to the height of a full meal, and we must firmly grasp the energy bowl in our own hands, which is the best time for China to overtake in the corner.
The same is true of the principle behind the battle for digital supremacy, the world of the future, who has the data, who has the ability to make rules to predict and guide the future, is also likely to dominate an industry, or even a society.
Not only is it a national security issue, but all the "benefit distribution business models" that make people anxious must be revised (three mountains, etc.); all policies that are in line with the interests of the broad public may be introduced (not afraid of hurting the interest classes).
In A shares, when choosing plates in the past, it was more about considering the sector of huge profits, which industry had huge profits, which one to choose. But in socialist countries, in the era of common prosperity, it is becoming more and more unrealistic to still want to earn huge profits. And we have also seen that those profiteering industries that were too harmful to the interests of people's livelihood have been affected to a certain extent.
The country must take into account the long-term development, and the population structure cannot be a problem, which is the biggest problem. After the disappearance of the demographic dividend, there have been many problems, the problem of social aging, the pressure of supporting the elderly (1 child has to raise 4 elderly people)... These problems directly affect the people's right to subsistence, reproductive rights, and the right to prosper in their families, and impact on the thinking of Chinese thousands of years of children and happiness.
Today, the state must re-empower the people, seek the welfare of the people, and solve the problems of "not daring to give birth, not being able to afford to raise". Then, relevant policies are likely to be introduced.
This is the change in the underlying logic of investment, which needs to be carefully considered, especially the issue of profit distribution.
So how do we respond to these changes? In fact, the optimal path is as President Hong said, from the big logic of long China to determine the investment strategy, cherish the opportunity to build a position in China brought by each decline, and cherish the opportunity to change positions at every cycle node.
Stock selection should follow the party and attach importance to the natural law that things must be reversed. Only industries that are in line with the future development direction of the country have potential in the future. In addition, we must also consider the concept of the entire industrial chain, if there is a certain profiteering link in the industrial chain, the entire industrial chain will be restricted.
Therefore, when deciding which stock to invest in, we can not only look at the performance, but also think from a long-term perspective on whether it is in line with the direction of national development.
Specifically, if you want to pursue excess returns in the short and medium term (hunting on a quarterly basis): mainly look at industry growth and policies, extreme trading looks at sentiment. Stock selection is to choose industries that can be bubbled, such as chips, new energy, new energy vehicles, military industry, high-end manufacturing, innovative medical care, wealth management and other industries that the country hopes to guide capital into.
Want to pursue stable returns for a long time (farm value in annual units): mainly look at the business model and valuation, extreme trading looks at sentiment. Stock selection is mainly considered core assets, especially in the consumer field, those companies that rely on brands and rely on scale to win are worth paying attention to.
Like Buffett said, no one can make a lot of money by shorting their home country. Only by doing more to the motherland can we make a lot of money. Today's world is in the era of wealth explosion, in the excellent position of wealth transfer, this century has not been the big change, is a good time for Hong Raiders extreme trading, and China's capital era, science and technology era, national tide era and common prosperity era, obvious characteristics, easy to select stocks.
Therefore, this is the investment era of ordinary investors, which is the reason why we are determined to go long in China.
As an ordinary investor, recognize the trend, stand with the country, believe that all roads are "bright roads", all pits are "golden pits", always be ready to meet opportunities, have the real power of investment, it is possible to achieve wealth management goals.
If you don't want to face A shares anymore, learn a set of investment practice methods seriously. "Hong Raiders Classic Column Edition" original price 999, limited time special price 333, click the following column link, you can sign up to learn: