The Middle East has been in constant smoke for several days. On February 15, a rocket strike near a U.S. military base in northern Iraq killed a multinational contractor. Ten days later, an Israeli cargo ship exploded in the Gulf of Oman, which Israel said was committed by Iran. The U.S. and Israeli militaries responded to specific targets one after another.
At the same time, the dawn of the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement is also looming. The United States once again expressed its willingness to return to the negotiating table, and Iranian President Rouhani reiterated that the United States' cessation of "economic terrorism" against Iraq, that is, sanctions against Iraq, is a prerequisite for negotiations.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Xinhua News Agency
U.S. President Joe Biden. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie
"I am still optimistic about the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement within this year. The key is Iran and the United States who take the first step. Hua Liming, a specially invited researcher at the China Institute of International Studies and former Chinese ambassador to Iran, told the Beijing Daily client reporter that as a successor to Obama's Middle East policy, Biden clearly hopes that the United States will return to the Iranian nuclear agreement, but due to the pressure of domestic right-wing forces and Middle East allies Israel and Saudi Arabia, it can only make small steps forward. Sanctions have caused great difficulties to Iran's economy, and if the United States loosens sanctions on Iran, Iran will take this step.
On the evening of February 25, the Israeli cargo ship Elios Rey exploded in the Gulf of Oman, and Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gantz accused Iran of being the perpetrators, and Iran strongly opposed it. "The Persian Gulf and The Gulf of Oman region are very sensitive strategic areas, and guns and fires often occur. Sometimes The Iranian ship was hit, sometimes the Israeli ship was hit, and no one recognized the account after the accident. Hua Liming said that even if the Israeli accusations are true, Iran is unlikely to admit them, because no one wants to be labeled as destabilizing the Shipping Lanes of the Persian Gulf.
On the same day, Biden personally ordered air strikes against Iranian-backed militias in eastern Syria, launching the first U.S. military cross-border strike since assuming the presidency.
Israel's response has also included the use of military means. The Syrian side said Israel launched missiles on the night of February 28 to attack Iran-linked targets in the southern part of Damascus.
Hua Liming pointed out that although the time is approaching, the actions of the United States and Israel against Iran are out of their own needs, not unified actions. The U.S. movement, in particular, is limited.
"In the past four years, Trump has mobilized all forces in the Middle East to oppose Iran, taking drastic measures to directly kill Iran's top generals and nuclear scientists. Since Biden took office, the Overall U.S. Middle East policy has not changed, and Iran is still regarded as the main enemy. But Biden, as a direct participant in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, will inherit More obama's policies, reduce hostility with Iran, and avoid consuming too many strategic resources in the Middle East. ”
Biden pledged to return to the JCPOA during the campaign. Hua Liming said that such a statement has always made Biden attacked by right-wing forces such as the Republican Party at home, criticizing him for softening his attitude towards Iran, and Israel and Saudi Arabia are also dissatisfied with it. "Therefore, the Biden administration's steps back to the Iranian nuclear agreement are very slow, and they hesitate to move forward." He said that he wanted to return, but he was unwilling to withdraw the sanctions on Iran, and he did not pay lip service to it. ”
Iran will hold presidential elections in June 2021, and Hua Liming said that if nuclear activities are stopped before the United States lifts sanctions, the Iranian government may not be able to account for domestic public opinion. But due to long-term economic difficulties, Iran will take a step forward in restarting the nuclear deal once the United States loosens sanctions.
Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif (first from left) and IAEA Director General Grossi (first from right) hold talks in Tehran on February 21. Xinhua News Agency
"After Trump withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement, although he endured a series of tough measures by the United States, it can be seen that Iran's overall performance is relatively restrained." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has warned the U.S. that "there is not much time left for the Americans," reminding the U.S. to seize the timing ahead of Iran's presidential election in June. Coupled with the positive attitude of other parties to the JCPOA, I am optimistic that the agreement will be restarted in 2021. ”
Source Beijing Daily Client | Reporter Bai Bo
Editor: Wang Qiong
Process Editor Tai Shaofeng