Iran's quadrennial presidential election will be held on June 18, and the Iranian nuclear negotiations, which resumed in April this year, have entered a critical period. Hua Liming, a former Chinese ambassador to Iran, said in an interview with a client reporter of Beijing Daily that the Iranian nuclear negotiations after the restart are close to reaching a conclusion, and the US Biden administration is generally continuing the policy of easing relations with Iran during the Obama era. With former Speaker Larrijani and former President Ahmadinejad out of the game, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei-backed presidential candidate Lassi has a clear advantage, and the loss of suspense and the impact of the new crown epidemic may make the turnout in this Iranian presidential election reach a record low.
The Iranian nuclear negotiations may be delayed until after the Iranian presidential election
Negotiations on the JCPOA, which are taking place in Vienna, Austria, will enter their sixth round on June 10. Hua Liming said biden wants to inherit Obama's diplomatic legacy, but at the same time to use some provisions of the Iranian nuclear agreement as a bargaining chip to suppress Iran's concessions. This is an important reason why the Iranian nuclear negotiations have resumed for two months and have not been able to reach an agreement so far.
At the beginning of the negotiations, Iran urged the United States to sign the agreement before iran's election on June 18. Now the main terms are negotiated, and some are still bargaining. President Rouhani had hoped to sign a nuclear deal before the election and win a little political capital for the moderates, but seeing that rouhani's blockbuster candidate was out, rouhani's government was in no hurry to sign an agreement before the June 18 election, and the negotiations may be postponed until after the election. ”
Khamenei supported Lacey, and the outcome of the election was almost unsustainable
Iran's Interior Ministry announced on May 25 that seven presidential candidates, including Attorney General Lasi, can participate in the 13th presidential election on June 18 after passing the constitutional guardianship council qualification. The number of people who had previously registered for the election reached 592, among them, Iran's First Vice President Jahangiri, former Speaker of the Parliament Rahrijani, and former President Ahmadinejad failed to pass the qualification examination of the Constitutional Guardian Council.
Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei
"Iranian public opinion has criticized the results of the presidential candidate's qualification examination a lot." Hua Liming said that many people believe that Khamenei personally overly manipulated the qualification examination of presidential candidates.
Two blockbuster candidates were disqualified, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former Speaker Larry Jani. Because the former tried to separate powers from the Supreme Leader when he was president. Larrijani was supposed to be someone Khamenei trusted very much, but Khamenei had to exclude Larikini in order to ensure Thati win the presidential election. Because of Larijani's prestige and accumulated resources, as well as the influence of the family, if he is on the list of candidates, Lacey will certainly be out of the picture. ”
Born in 1960, Ibrahim Lacey introduced that Laisi was in charge of justice in the early days of iran's Islamic Revolution, when many executions and imprisonments were related to him. Lacey is a representative of the revolutionary faction in Iranian politics, and compared with some other political stars, Lacey's younger age is a clear advantage.
Iran's presidential candidate and attorney general, Lasi
Khamenei's full support for Lacey is considered to be preparing for the future of Lacey to take over his position as Supreme Leader.
"Iran nominally elected the president through a referendum, but the candidates were rigorously screened by the authorities." Hua Liming said.
A few days ago, 7 presidential candidates had a debate. Hua Liming said he watched the video of the debate, which was boring and sleepy, "an election like this is not really a competition." ”
Hua Liming believes that if Lacey comes to power smoothly, given his relationship with Khamenei, it is likely that he will fully inherit Khamenei's domestic and foreign policies, including the handling of relations with the United States and China.
Only 32 percent of Iranians said they would definitely vote
Khamenei has repeatedly called on the people to vote, because under the current circumstances, the results of the elections are no longer important, what is important is the turnout. Khamenei, who, as a religious leader, demanded that voting be a "religious obligation" for the population, saying that not voting would undermine the Islamic Republic system.
As of June 8, the number of confirmed covid-19 cases in Iran has reached 2.98 million, and the death toll of more than 80,000 is the highest among Middle Eastern countries. The pandemic has had a severe impact on the Iranian economy, causing Iranian Chamber of Commerce businesses to suffer huge losses of about $12 billion.
"The pandemic and the economy hit by the pandemic will definitely affect the elections. Those dissatisfied with the current regime do not vote, and many believe that since the candidates have been decided, there is no point in voting. Hua Liming said.
According to a poll published by Iranian media, only 32 percent of Iranians said they would definitely vote in June's presidential election, according to a poll released by Iranian media. Before the last presidential election in 2017, that number was 52 percent.