In early 2020, Sulaimani, a senior officer of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was assassinated. At the end of the year, top nuclear physicist Fakrizad was assassinated again. At the beginning and end, Iran lost two heavyweights, and both were assassinated, and the turbulent situation in the Middle East was once again shrouded in the cloud of "terrorism", which seemed to imply that the future of the Middle East was uncertain. In this regard, the Observer Network interviewed former ambassador to Iraq Hua Liming, starting from the Iranian hotspot and looking forward to the future of the Middle East.
Former Ambassador to Iraq Hua Liming
【Interview/Observer Network Bai Ziwen】
Observer Network: Trump has not yet handed over power, Biden has not yet taken power, how do you view the time when Fakrizad was assassinated?
Hua Liming: The biggest suspects in this murder are Israel and the Trump administration in the United States. I think that whether the murderer is the Trump administration or the Israeli authorities, the main purpose of choosing such an opportunity to murder Iran's top nuclear scientists is to stimulate the Iranian government to react strongly, and then provoke a Middle East war so that the Iranian nuclear agreement can never be restored.
This is a political purpose. For military purposes, Fakrizad has long been a thorn in the side of Israel and the United States, because he is the head of Iran's nuclear program, so they have long wanted to deal with him.
Netanyahu personally named Fakhrizadeh
Now that Trump has more than 40 days in office, Biden has made it clear that after he takes office on January 20, the United States will return to the Iran nuclear deal.
So what does a return to the Iran nuclear deal mean for Israel? That means Biden wants to revive one of Israel's most opposed plans, because the JCPOA is about allowing Iran to retain its nuclear capabilities, and after 15 years, Iran can regain its nuclear capabilities.
During the Obama administration, the relationship between the United States and Israel was at an impasse, and the personal relationship between Obama and Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister) was also very bad, because of the Iran nuclear agreement, so once the Biden administration returned to the Iranian nuclear agreement, Israel would definitely feel that its interests were greatly damaged.
So from Israel's point of view, at this time, he must take a step forward and create difficulties for the Biden administration to return to the Iranian nuclear agreement in the future.
From Trump's point of view, in the remaining time, he will leave Biden a lot of nails, set a lot of traps, so that the Biden administration will encounter many problems after taking office, so that there is no power to deal with the epidemic, the economy and so on. Diplomatic targeting Iran is one of the pitfalls.
I think the Trump administration and the Israeli authorities chose this opportunity to assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists for the purpose of this.
Observer Network: According to the exposure, there was no human factor at the assassination scene, and the shooting was all done by remotely controlled automatic weapons. Does this indicate that Iran has been deeply infiltrated? The timing is so ingenious, after a successful one, is it possible that such assassinations will continue?
Hua Liming: From Iran's point of view, the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists under the high-level protection of Iran has exposed the shortcomings of Iran's domestic security measures. I've been looking at Iranian public opinion lately, and many high-level Iranians have criticized the government, pointing out that this time it was because iran's security apparatus failed to protect its nuclear scientists.
And this is not the first case of an Assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist. From 2007 to the present, five Iranian nuclear physicists have been assassinated, and the murderers behind them are all Israeli intelligence agencies Mossad.
After repeated assassinations of nuclear scientists, the Iranian authorities have still not been able to stop Israeli infiltration into Iran.
In addition, the internal infiltration of Iran by opponents of Iran is also very strong, especially the Iranian opposition "People's Mujahedin Organization", which is backed by the United States, Europe and Israel. In 2003, Iran's nuclear program, which had been conducted in secret, was made public mainly because the People's Mujahideen infiltrated Iran and exposed it. The previous assassinations are also said to have been echoed by the "People's Mujahideen".
Al Jazeera reported in 2011 that members of the People's Mujahedin had lobbied the United States to remove it from its list of terrorists
Therefore, the two reasons why the assassination can be successful are that Iran's security work is unfavorable, and the other is that Iran's security institutions have been seriously infiltrated by external enemies, resulting in such a serious consequence.
As for whether there will be any assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists in the remaining decades of Trump's white house, it is difficult to predict, but one thing is certain that Trump will definitely use this time to cause as much diplomatic trouble as possible for Biden.
Observer Network: Why are Iranian scientists so frequently targeted? What are Iran's grievances in the Middle East?
Hua Liming: Iran's entanglement with the Middle East, the United States and Israel began with the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. Before 1979, Iran was a staunch ally of the United States, and during pahlavi's rule, Iran was a country where the United States nursed the United States in the Middle East and in the Persian Gulf.
After the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, the country launched strong anti-American slogans not only to drive American power out of the Middle East, but also to erase Israel from the map.
In addition, since 1979, Iran has declared that it wants to export the revolution, to export the iranian model of the revolution to its neighbors. This has led to iran's poor relations with Iraq, Saudi Arabia and other neighbors, who are afraid of Iran and afraid of exporting their revolutionary model to their own countries, which led to the Iran-Iraq war and the hostility between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.
Therefore, Iran's grievances with the United States, Israel, and its surrounding countries are inextricably linked to Iran's post-revolutionary foreign policy. On the one hand, Iran hopes for independence and hopes to get rid of the 1/4th century of U.S. rule over Iran, but on the other hand, after Iran's independence, the new Iranian regime has a strong will to export its revolutionary model to the surrounding areas and vows to destroy Israel, which is bound to cause Iran to be surrounded by enemies and constant contradictions with its neighbors.
This is the origin of Iran's entanglement with its neighbors.
Observer Network: If Iran's nuclear weapons development is completely completed, what impact will it have on the situation in the Middle East?
Hua Liming: After the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, a considerable number of countries in the world, of course, bore the brunt of the major powers, such as Britain, France, China, and the Soviet Union, all sought to possess their own nuclear weapons.
By the time China had its own nuclear weapons in 1964, all the permanent members of the UN Security Council had nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons have become a deterrent that no one dares to use easily, but everyone wants to be able to have.
For a large country like the United States, having nuclear weapons can blackmail, threaten, and bully others; for small countries or other countries like China, having nuclear weapons can protect their security and independence.
So more and more countries have been pursuing nuclear weapons since then. Then in the Middle East, especially after the end of the Cold War, we have seen that not only Iran, but also Iraq and Libya are all seeking nuclear weapons.
The pretext for the United States to launch the Iraq war was to claim that nuclear weapons/weapons of mass destruction had been found in Iraq, and saddam Hussein was defeated and killed. After Libya's Qaddafi was also killed, there was only one Iran left in the Middle East that was still pursuing nuclear weapons.
There is only one country in the Middle East that actually possesses nuclear weapons, and that is Israel, so Israel does not want its nuclear monopoly to be broken by any Arab country or Iran or Turkey. Therefore, for a country like Iran, Israel must do everything possible to destroy its nuclear capabilities, not only to stop them from manufacturing nuclear weapons, but also to completely eliminate their nuclear capabilities.
With regard to Israel, any Middle Eastern state that possesses nuclear weapons poses a threat to Israel's security, not to mention that Iran has made it clear that it will wipe Israel off the map.
For Iran, bringing nuclear weapons and revolutionary models to the heart of the Arab states of the Middle East is an important means by which Iran sees itself as a regional power. Therefore, Iran itself has to do everything possible to seek nuclear weapons.
Countries around Iran are also very afraid of Iran's nuclear weapons, so as long as Iran's nuclear problem exists for one day, peace and stability in the Middle East cannot last.
Observer Network: At the beginning of 2020, Iran's "number three person" Sulaimani was assassinated; at the end of the year, Iran's top scientists were assassinated. How should we view what happened to Iran?
Hua Liming: I think that iran, as a regional power, deserves support and sympathy for seeking its own independence and rejuvenation. But at the same time, this country has to extend its hand to other countries, which is difficult to get the recognition of the surrounding countries. This is a very important lesson for Iran in its foreign policy.
Of course, the United States also wants to maintain its hegemony and interests in the Middle East. Therefore, from 1979 to the present, the United States has gone through 7 presidents, each of which is very hostile to Iran and seeks to change and overthrow the current regime in Iran.
Therefore, the hostility between the United States and Iran has not occurred in the past 4 years of Trump's administration, but has a history of 40 years, and the structural contradictions in the relationship between the United States and Iran are difficult to resolve.
Observer.com: From China's perspective, how should we view the Middle East today?
Hua Liming: The Middle East is an important energy supplier to China, and China has become the largest buyer of oil in the Middle East. In addition, the Middle East is also an important sea route for China to transport and import oil. From these two perspectives, China hopes for stability and peace in the Middle East, no war, no turmoil.
Therefore, no matter what contradictions occur in the Middle East, China is always persuading peace and promoting talks, and does not support either side or attack any party.
In 1991, Hua Liming presented his credentials to then-Iranian President Rafsanjani
Moreover, compared with other major countries, China has a clear advantage in the Middle East, that is, China has no disgraceful history in the Middle East.
Other great powers have sought hegemony in the Middle East or done unseemly things. China has a good reputation in the Middle East and maintains friendly relations with all countries, including Israel, Palestine, Iran, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. China's policy in the Middle East is to make good friends with all countries, to persuade peace and promote talks, and to promote regional peace and stability. I think this is the Middle East in China's eyes.
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