Yesterday, Yanghe released three quarterly reports, and when I first came out, I swept a rough sweep and came to the following conclusions:
I read it again this morning, and the conclusion has not changed much, and the business model is like this, don't worry too much, and can also bring us good returns.
First look at the basic data, the third quarter of operating income increased by 16.66%, net profit fell by 13.01%, deduct non-net profit increased by 22.95%.
We are looking at the quarterly data, the third quarter if you look at the deduction of non-net profit, is a new high since the reform, revenue growth, deduction of non-growth, this data at least proves that the main business of the enterprise is no problem, and after a series of reforms have also regained the momentum of growth.
As for the financial impact, I don't think it matters, it's just a change in fair value.
Let's look at the part of the change in fair value of BOC Securities, which brought 335 million yuan to Yanghe in the third quarter of last year, and lost 439 million yuan due to the change in fair value this year.
But in fact, this is only because of the change in the stock price of BOC Securities held, which has no impact on the main business, and the investment of BOC Securities has made more than 800 million yuan so far. If you don't consider the financial assets part, in fact, the growth of Yanghe's main business this year is very good.
Yanghe's business model is not difficult, and the raw materials are basically unaffected, so there is basically no need to worry about it.
Can Yanghe buy it now?
The fourth quarter is generally the off-season of Yanghe, the first three quarters of Yanghe net profit of 7.2 billion, excluding the impact of the annual fair value change is about 7.8 billion profits,
In the fourth quarter, BOC was better and worse, and we couldn't predict the trend of the stock price.
Out of the three quarterly report roughly estimated that the whole year is not difficult, last year's epidemic, the previous year's inventory clearance, Yanghe fourth quarter is very general, this year's fourth quarter performance should be much better, if you can do and 18 years of the same, can have a 1 billion or so, the Bank of China to be able to have a small performance, the fourth quarter of about 8.5 billion I think almost.
If according to the net profit of 8.5 billion, corresponding to Yanghe's current market value of 270 billion, 31PE, basically and reasonable slightly expensive, at least the valuation can not account for any big bargain, you can steadily earn performance growth money.
80% of the price investment in the liquor industry has been allocated, because it is too in line with the concept of Lao Ba, the industry is simple and changes are few, the performance growth does not need to continue to be high investment, the quality of earnings is high, and there is excellent cash flow, and it is difficult to become worse in the next many years (at least it is easy to observe).
Take a screenshot of my reading notes that I've been collating over the past two days
Buffett says: "The only reason you're investing cash in any one of your investments right now is because you think the business will produce more cash to you in the future, rather than possibly having a higher bid."
Buffett said that if you are an investor, the main focus is on the assets and business model of the company and the future development of the enterprise, if you are a speculator, you will not care about the asset, but will care about the performance of the stock price in the next trading week.
When you understand this, you know what kind of company to choose, we will try to choose those companies that are still likely to be in place after 10 years and 20 years, Xishi Candy In 1972, I bought Xishi Candy, yes, he is still there, still great. Another example is Coca-Cola and Gillette.
Buffett's Speeches Over the Years
From today's stock price trend, it can also be seen that most of the stocks have fallen in the case of blue nose and swollen face, Yanghe only fell by 0.56%, and the market is still quite satisfied with this three-quarter report.