Golden Eagle Fund Yang Fan: The mismatch between supply and demand will alleviate the cyclical industry boom or decline

Yang Fan, fund manager of the equity investment department of the Golden Eagle Fund, said a few days ago that with the effective control of the epidemic, the problem of mismatch between supply and demand will be alleviated, and the price of cyclical products will most likely return to the mean, so that the cyclical industry prosperity will decline.

Yang Fan analysis believes that an important reason for the high prosperity of the cyclical industry this year is the global economic recovery, which has led to a rebound in demand. With the widespread vaccination of vaccines, countries are easing epidemic control in an orderly manner. Against this backdrop, the economy and daily life are gradually recovering. However, the current round of economic recovery is characterized by the faster the economic recovery of countries with more developed economies and the higher the vaccine penetration rate. Economically underdeveloped countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, their economies have not only not recovered but have deteriorated further due to poor health conditions and access to vaccines. The economic recovery of developed countries has stimulated demand. Underdeveloped countries, which are also exporters of raw materials, have been greatly restricted from resuming work and production due to their weak ability to control the epidemic. The end result is a short-term mismatch between supply and demand, leading to a sharp rise in raw material prices.

At the same time, in the context of the "double limit", the supply side is also greatly restricted, which further pushes up the price of raw materials. Yang Fan said that looking forward to next year, with the effective control of the epidemic, the problem of mismatch between supply and demand will be alleviated, and the price of cyclical products will most likely return to the mean, thus making the cyclical industry boom downward.