According to comprehensive Japanese media reports, the election of the president of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party is not just a simple rotation of the leader of the ruling party. On the one hand, for the LDP, this may be a historic change to end the "Abe line" and "elder politics"; on the other hand, for Japan, it may be a major adjustment of the future energy line.
In this regard, some Japanese media analysis believes that once minister in charge of administrative reform Taro Kono is elected as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, then the current prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, is likely to continue to serve as the chief cabinet secretary in the new cabinet. This is not only because he is Japan's longest-serving chief cabinet secretary, but also as a result of the checks and balances of political power within the Liberal Democratic Party.
Kono Taro's election marks the end of the "Abe Route"?
According to Japanese media reports, Japan's Minister of Administrative Reform Taro Kono advocates attaching importance to energy conservation and environmental protection, advocating that in order to achieve the 2050 greenhouse gas net zero emission target, allow safe nuclear power plants to operate again, and will also give priority to the development of energy-saving energy and renewable energy. Therefore, the day kono Taro is elected president of the new Liberal Democratic Party may be the end of the "Abe line".
Shinzo Abe Infographic
Japan's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso is an important political ally of Shinzo Abe and an atomic propulsionist in Japanese politics. The Aso faction has been trying to prevent Taro Kono from running for president of the Liberal Democratic Party. If Kono Taro is elected, the 80-year-old Aso Taro and his Aso faction may scatter the tree. Therefore, Aso Taro would prefer kishida Fumio, who listens to his own words, to be elected.
Taro Aso: Kyodosha
Gan Liming, president of the LDP's Tax Investigation Committee, is an important figure in the Aso faction and the closest figure to Abe's side. Japanese media said that although Gan Liming wanted to succeed Aso Taro as the core figure of the Aso school, he was deeply involved in the scandal of bribery before, and it was basically difficult to win the support of the Japanese people.
If Shinzo Abe and Aso join forces to support Kishida Fumio, Kono will face significant resistance. But the problem is that Shinzo Abe has his own ideas, and he has been high-profile support for former Japanese Minister of Internal Affairs Takashi Sanae, who is actually another loyal executor of the "Abe Line."
Whether Kono Taro can get more than half of the support is crucial
According to a poll conducted by the Asahi Shimbun over the weekend, Kono received the highest approval rating of 33 percent for the question of "who is best suited to be the next prime minister." Recently, Kono Taro has frequently led the Japanese polls.
On September 10, local time, Tokyo, Japan, Japan's Minister of Administrative Reform Taro Kono held a press conference
Abe's biggest fear now is that after Kono's popularity rose, he quickly gained more than half of the support in the election and was elected with a high vote. Therefore, the purpose of Abe's election of Takaichi Sanae was actually to divide the votes for Kono Taro, preventing him from receiving a single majority of the votes in the election. As long as Abe achieved this goal, in the next second round of elections, the Hosoda faction he led would unite with the Aso faction and the Kishida faction to counterattack with an absolute advantage, and Kishida Fumio would be elected.
Japanese media analysis believes that the "3A combination" (the Japanese pronunciation of the three surnames begins with the letter "A") jointly formed by Shinzo Abe, Taro Aso, and Akira Gan (the Japanese pronunciation of the three surnames begins with the letter "A") will eventually support Kishida Fumio. If Kono Taro, Shigeru Ishiba, and Shinjiro Koizumi could unite to form the "KIK" alliance, it might end the "Abe Route" once and for all. Because Kono Taro has announced that if he is elected, he will continue to investigate the "Moritomo Gakuen issue" involving Shinzo Abe and abandon the nuclear energy development route.
Shigeru Ishibashi infographic
According to Japanese media reports, in order not to let his faction collapse, Aso Taro convened a meeting of some backbone forces within the Aso faction on September 10. The theme of the meeting was "How to Make the Faction Soft Landing", i.e. the Faction within the Aso Faction was splitting into a faction that supported Kono Taro and supported Kishida Fumio.
Suga may continue to serve as Chief Cabinet Secretary in the new Cabinet
For the past nine years, Suga has been at the heart of Japan's power center. When he is no longer the president of the LDP, where will he go?
Suga Infographic
Recently, Japanese media reported a widely circulated statement that Suga will not become an ordinary member of parliament after leaving office, but may continue to serve as chief cabinet secretary in the new cabinet.
Some Japanese media analysis believes that Suga and Kono Taro are both LDP members elected from Kanagawa Prefecture, so he takes good care of Kono Taro. In the election of the liberal democratic party president, Suga also made it very clear that he supported Kono Taro.
According to Sources in Japanese politics, there is a lack of competent cabinet secretaries around Kono. Known as the "Chief Cabinet Secretary of the Iron Wall", Suga Yoshihide became a popular candidate. In addition, in order not to let Kono Taro, who has always liked to do his own thing, "run amok", other LDP leaders such as Shinzo Abe will also arrange Suga Yoshihide to be next to Kono Taro and play a leading role.
In addition, some analysts believe that Suga may become the heir of the "second-order faction" in the Liberal Democratic Party. Although Suga does not belong to any faction within the LDP, he also has political power of twenty or thirty members within the LDP. The current LDP secretary-general, Second Order Toshihiro, is also considered the "founder" of Suga's cabinet, and after the 82-year-old second-order Toshihiro retires, the 72-year-old Suga may become the successor of the "second order".
Red Star News reporter Luo Tian
Edited by Guo Yu
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