Last week, most of the world's stock markets rose, and Powell said the risk of inflation was high or cause the Fed to raise interest rates in the middle of next year. At the level of industry trends, electric intelligent vehicles are in the ascendant, and the sales of new energy vehicles in China and Europe in September exceeded market expectations, the margin of chip shortage problem improved marginally, and follow-up sales may further exceed market expectations. Tesla's third-quarter delivery data is eye-catching, and it recently received the largest order ever for electric vehicles. Last week, Tesla led the electric vehicle sector to rise collectively. The United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held on October 31, and countries will have detailed discussions on emission reductions, commitments, financing, or policies or measures that once again exceed market expectations, and are recommended to pay active attention.
Core ideas
【Global Stock Market Performance】Global stock markets rose generally last week. In terms of U.S. stocks, the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rose by 1.4%, 1.4% and 1.8% respectively. The market is mainly concerned about Powell's latest statement on interest rate hikes, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, US economic data, and the epidemic and vaccinations. In powell's latest statement on the interest rate hike, Powell said that high inflation is likely to continue into next year, but still expects inflation to fall back to the target of near 2%. If high inflation persists, tools will be used; interest rates will be raised by mid-2022, which will raise interest rates if it sees a serious risk of rising inflation expectations. The Fed is on track to begin to scale down its bond purchases. In the context of the UN Climate Change Conference, which will be held in the UK on 31 this month, COP26 needs to make progress in three key areas: emissions reductions, commitments and funding. In terms of economic data, the US Markit services PMI in October hit the highest in July, and the Markit manufacturing PMI started at a new low since March and fell short of expectations. Economic data shows the U.S. economy looks set to have stronger growth in the fourth quarter, but rising inflationary pressures show no signs of abating. In terms of global epidemic and vaccination, more countries have recently begun to open their borders, and China still adopts a zero-tolerance policy for the epidemic, if the vaccination rate exceeds 85% in early 2022, China will consider opening the border. Last week, the countries with the highest number of new confirmed cases were the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, Turkey, India and so on. In terms of industry performance, the health care, public utilities, and financial sectors performed relatively well last week, and the performance of energy and materials was relatively poor. In terms of different stocks, among the market value companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that have risen sharply in the past week, there are more companies in the optional consumer sector, and among the more than $20 billion market value companies that have led the decline in the past week, there are more information technology companies.
【Global Industry Trends】Trend 1: Electric Intelligent Vehicles. In September, sales of electric vehicles in China and Europe continued to exceed market expectations. With the marginal easing of the shortage of automotive chips, the growth rate of electric vehicle sales is expected to rise further. Tesla announced the third quarter report, the third quarter delivered more than 240,000 vehicles, an increase of 70% year-on-year, is expected to end the third quarter annual production capacity of more than 1 million. In addition, Tesla received an order for 100,000 Model 3s from Hertz, a U.S. car rental leader. In the overseas stock market, Tesla drove the electric vehicle sector up collectively last week. Trend two: new energy. Global resonance of the energy revolution: China launched a large wind power base and wind power partnership action, the United States announced the expansion of wind power plants in coastal areas of the United States and the national community solar cooperation program, and the Sino-US wind and solar policy resonance. The United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held at the end of this month, and there may be further progress in global carbon neutrality.
【Important information】Yabao: Signed an investment agreement with Meishan City for the Yabao New Era Lithium Battery Material Factory Project to build a lithium hydroxide production base with an annual output of 50,000 tons. Ecopro M: The world's largest cathode materials factory jointly built with Samsung SDI has been completed, and mass production of NCA ternary cathode materials is expected to begin in the first half of next year, with an estimated annual production capacity of 36,000 tons and the supply of 400,000 electric vehicle batteries.
【Industry Trend Concern and Suggestions】From a medium- and long-term perspective, we currently recommend paying attention to the rise of the whole industry chain of carbon neutrality (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy, etc.) in the global light, the increase in the penetration rate of electric intelligent vehicles under the general trend of electrification and intelligence, and the industrial trends of intelligent manufacturing, cloud computing, and autonomous controllability.
【Risk Warning】The stocks mentioned in this report only indicate that they are related to the relevant topics and do not constitute individual stock investment recommendations.
Contents
01 Core Concerns and Investment Advice
Last week, the industry index with higher A-share gains was: fluorine chemical industry, lithium battery diaphragm, phosphorus chemical industry, etc.
Last week, the noteworthy changes in industry trends in overseas markets were:
1. Electric intelligent car
At present, the global electric vehicle is in the stage of accelerated penetration. In September, sales of electric vehicles in China and Europe continued to exceed market expectations. With the marginal easing of the shortage of automotive chips, the growth rate of electric vehicle sales is expected to rise further. At the same time, with the rise in the price of upstream resources, many power battery manufacturers began to raise prices to conduct rising cost pressure.
Recently, Tesla released three quarterly reports. Overall, Tesla delivered more than 240,000 vehicles in the third quarter, an increase of 20% quarter-on-quarter and a year-on-year increase of 70%, and the company said that the annual production capacity at the end of the third quarter exceeded 1 million vehicles, and the increase in production capacity benefited from the further mass production of model Y models at the Shanghai factory. In addition, on the company's conference call, Tesla said it plans to replace the world's standard endurance version with the LFP version. In 2022, the first model equipped with a 4680 battery will be launched. On October 25, according to Bloomberg, Tesla received an order for 100,000 Model 3s from Hertz, a U.S. car rental leader. The big deal, which grossed about $4.2 billion, also became the largest deal ever made for electric vehicles and locked in about 10 percent of Tesla's annual production capacity.
Last week, Tesla led the electric vehicle sector to rise collectively, Tesla rose 17.8%, Xiaopeng rose 11.3%, Ideal rose 12.6%, BYD rose 9.4%, weilai rose 4.2%.
2. New energy
Carbon neutrality brings about a global energy revolution, and major countries around the world are formulating policies to accelerate the transformation of the energy mix, so they often reflect global resonance.
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity Leaders' Summit that the planning and construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects in desert, Gobi and desert areas has been accelerated, and the first phase of the project with an installed capacity of about 100 million kilowatts has been started in an orderly manner in the near future, and China's wind and photovoltaic bases have officially kicked off. At the same time, 118 cities in China and more than 600 wind power companies jointly launched the "Wind Power Partnership Action • Zero Carbon City Fumei Countryside" plan. The plan makes it clear that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, 100 counties across the country, 5,000 villages are preferred, 10,000 wind turbines are installed, and the total installed capacity reaches 50 million kilowatts, similar to the photovoltaic "whole county promotion" policy.
Coincidentally, the United States also has a similar policy to promote the installation of scenery and wind. On October 13, the Biden administration announced the expansion of wind farms in the coastal areas of the United States, thereby expanding the capacity of offshore wind power in the United States, with a total installed capacity of 30GW in 2030, becoming the world's second largest installed wind power capacity market, and generating as many as seven new leasable sea areas in 2025. In addition, the U.S. Department of Energy recently announced a new "National Community Solar Cooperation Program" that aims to provide 26GW of electricity for community solar projects and generate $1 billion in revenue by 2025.
On October 31, the United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held, which is the first climate conference since the implementation of the Paris Agreement, which has attracted much attention from all parties. At that time, countries will discuss in detail the three aspects of emission reductions, commitments and funding, and there may be more progress than expected.
Investment advice: From a medium- and long-term perspective, we currently recommend paying attention to the rise of the whole industry chain of carbon neutrality under the global emphasis (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy, etc.), the increase in the penetration rate of electric intelligent vehicles under the general trend of electrification and intelligence, and the industrial trends of intelligent manufacturing, cloud computing, and autonomous controllability.
02 Global Watch: Overseas Market Tracking
1. Performance of global large-scale assets
Global stock markets rose last week. In terms of U.S. stocks, the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rose by 1.4%, 1.4% and 1.8% respectively. The market is mainly concerned about Powell's latest statement on interest rate hikes, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, US economic data, and the epidemic and vaccinations. Powell's latest statement on interest rate hikes, on October 22, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that high inflation is likely to continue into next year, but still expect inflation to fall back to the target of close to 2%; if we see persistently high inflation, we will use our tools; if the Fed sees a serious risk of rising inflation expectations by mid-2022, it will raise interest rates. He also said that the Fed is on track to begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases, and it is planned to complete the debt reduction plan by mid-2022. This statement is clearly biased. In terms of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in the United Kingdom on the 31st of this month, and this united Nations Climate Change Conference is the first climate conference since the implementation of the Paris Agreement, which has attracted much attention from all parties. According to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, COP26 needs to make progress in three key areas: emissions reductions, commitments and funding. In terms of economic data, the US Markit service industry PMI in October recorded 58.2, expected to be 55.1, the highest in July; the US Markit manufacturing PMI in October recorded 59.2, a new low since March, less than expected 60.5. Economic data shows the U.S. economy looks set to have stronger growth in the fourth quarter, but rising inflationary pressures show no signs of abating. In terms of global epidemic situation and vaccination, at present, the proportion of vaccination in Europe and the United States is rising rapidly, of which the proportion of the population completely vaccinated in Germany, France, Britain and the United States is 65.64%, 67.50%, 66.77% and 56.67% respectively. Recently, more countries have begun to open their borders, according to our statistics, the United States announced that from November 8 to China, India and most of the European countries and other 33 countries to open the border, the United Kingdom since August to the United States, the European Union and other countries to fully open the border; Germany since August also opened the border, entry only need to provide vaccination or nucleic acid test certificate; in addition, Israel, Argentina, Thailand, India has also opened the border to a certain extent. For China, the current zero-tolerance policy for the epidemic is still adopted, after Gao Fu, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that if the vaccination rate exceeds 85% in early 2022, China will consider opening its borders. Last week, the countries with the highest number of new confirmed cases were the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, Turkey, India and so on.
The European stock market rose, with the FTSE 100, France CAC40, Germany DAX and Italy indexes up 0.3%, 0.6%, 0.8% and 2.0% respectively. The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.5%.
Last week, most commodities rose, crude oil and precious metals rose collectively, and industrial metals and agricultural products rose and fell. The US 10-year Treasury rate rose 5BP to 1.64%.
In terms of crude oil, last week's cloth oil and WTI crude oil rose by 1.0% and 2.6% respectively, and the current cloth oil and WTI crude oil rose to 85 and 84 US dollars / barrel respectively. With winter approaching in the Northern Hemisphere, demand for oil and gas is increasing. The current shortage of natural gas creates an alternative demand for oil. On the supply side, OPEC+ still has no new production increase plans. Precious metals rose more sharply last week, with gold up 2.4 percent and silver up 6.0 percent. Last week, industrial metal prices rose and fell, metal aluminum, metal copper, metal zinc fell by 8.6%, 3.5%, 7.0% respectively, in order to ensure market order, LME conducted copper trading surveys. In addition, energy prices are too high, affecting market concerns about demand. Metal nickel and lead metal rose by 1.6% and 2.4% respectively. Most of the prices of agricultural products rose, with soybeans, ICE11 sugar and wheat rising by 1.2%, 0.3% and 3.3% respectively, and rice prices falling by 1.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5BP to 1.64%. The dollar index fell 0.1% to 94, and the renminbi appreciated 0.83% against the dollar, and the current midpoint of the yuan against the dollar is 6.38.
2. Global stock market industry performance
Last week, global stock markets rose and fell, with healthcare, utilities and financial sectors performing relatively well, while energy and materials performed relatively poorly.
Specifically, in terms of U.S. stocks, U.S. stocks rose across the board last week except for telecommunications services, and healthcare, real estate, and public utilities ranked in the top three. In terms of European stocks, most of the sectors rose or were basically flat, the public utilities and health care sectors performed well, and the optional consumption and daily consumption performed better. In the UK stock market, healthcare and information technology performed better, while the materials and optional consumer sectors performed poorly. In the Japanese stock market, all sectors fell last week, and the energy, daily consumption, finance, and optional consumption sectors fell significantly. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, information technology and optional consumption performed brightly, the real estate, public utilities and financial sectors rose relatively largely, and the energy sector fell sharply. In terms of A-shares, finance and daily consumption rose in the front, and the energy and telecommunications service sectors fell sharply.
3. A brief analysis of global strong stocks and abnormal stocks
Among the more than $20 billion market value companies that have risen sharply in the past week, there are more companies in the optional consumer sector, and among the more than $20 billion market value companies that have fallen in the past week, there are more information technology companies.
A brief analysis of abnormal stocks
Tesla received an order for 100,000 Model 3s from Hertz, a U.S. car rental leader. The order is the company's largest ever order, with expected revenue of $4.2 billion, to be delivered over the next 14 months. Tesla's stock price rose sharply, while driving other new energy vehicle concept stocks in the United States to rise sharply.
【POOL】Pool released its third quarter report for 2021, saying that the profit in the first three fiscal quarters was 543 million US dollars, an increase of 76.55% year-on-year; the total operating income was 4.26 billion US dollars, an increase of 38.0% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations.
03 Express important information
1. Industrial policy and news
(1) Tesla's car sales in the third quarter exceeded expectations and recently won the largest order ever (☆☆☆☆)
On October 25, Bloomberg reported that Tesla received an order for 100,000 Model 3s from Hertz, a U.S. car rental leader. The big deal, which grossed about $4.2 billion, also became the largest deal ever made for electric vehicles and locked in about 10 percent of Tesla's annual production capacity.
Previously, according to Tesla's third quarterly report, in the third quarter of 2021, Tesla delivered 241,400 vehicles, an increase of 20% quarter-on-quarter and a year-on-year increase of 70%. Among them, the Model 3 and Model Y totaled 232,100 units, exceeding market expectations. Tesla said that in the next few years, it expects vehicle deliveries to increase by an average of 50% per year; it expects to obtain final approval for the Berlin-Brandenburg project by the end of this year; and for cars with standard mileage, lithium iron phosphate batteries are being switched to worldwide. The first cars equipped with 4680 batteries will be delivered early next year.
(2) When the electrification of eu vehicles is carried out: the proportion of Q3 electric vehicles in the market has reached nearly 20% (☆☆☆☆)
On October 22, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) released sales data showing that electric vehicles accounted for nearly one-fifth of the cars sold in the EU in the third quarter, while the proportion of fuel vehicle sales fell sharply. Pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for nearly 19% of sales in the entire EU in the third quarter. Sales of pure electric vehicles (BEVs) rose nearly 57 percent to more than 212,000 units, and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) rose nearly 43 percent to more than 197,000 units. In addition, sales of hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles (HEVs) in the third quarter increased by 31.5% year-on-year to nearly 500,000 units, accounting for 20.7% of the total EU market, surpassing diesel vehicles for the first time and becoming the second most popular car category in the EU. At the same time, sales of fuel vehicles have fallen sharply. EU gasoline car sales fell 35 percent in the third quarter, while diesel car sales fell by more than 50 percent.
(3) UK Announces Strategy for Achieving Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (☆☆)
On October 19, the UK government unveiled a "net zero strategy" on its official website, saying that it represents not only environmental transformation, but also important economic change. Under the Net Zero Strategy, the UK will create 440,000 jobs in green industries by 2030 and release up to £90 billion of investment by 2030 to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
(4) G7 Financial Leaders Have Agreed on 13 Principles of CBDC Guidance (☆☆)
October 23 news, according to a statement from the US Treasury Department, the finance ministers of the G7 countries have agreed on 13 public policy principles for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), a move that could pave the way for greater adoption of CBDCs by major economies around the world. It is reported that the G7 submitted the draft central bank's digital currency guiding principles document on October 11, emphasizing transparency and privacy protection.
(5) ICMM President: Demand for lithium and cobalt in the next 30 years will be 40 times the current level (☆☆)
Rohitesh Dhawan, president of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), said at the 2021 China International Mining Congress that the world is moving towards achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. According to World Bank estimates, demand for key minerals will increase by 500% over the next 30 years, while demand for lithium and cobalt will increase by up to 40 times to current levels.
(6) Raw material costs continue to rise Chuan automotive chip IDM price increase of 10-20% next year (☆☆)
According to the Electronic Times, industry insiders said that in response to the continuous price increase of raw materials such as copper, gold, oil and silicon wafers, IDM such as Infineon, NXP, Renesas, TI and STMicroelectronics is ready to raise the price of automotive chips in 2022, an increase of 10%-20%. More details of IDM's new round of price increases are unclear, but automakers will certainly see chip costs rise next year.
(7) Passive component manufacturer Guoju will expand high-end product production capacity (☆)
According to The Taiwan Economic Daily, the passive component manufacturer Guoju plans to expand the layout of high-end products, and intends to focus on tantalum capacitors to lock in the expansion of high-gross margin products such as vehicles and industrial controls. New production capacity will be opened in the second half of this year, and another 10%-15% capacity will be added next year. On the whole, the production capacity of high-end products will increase by 20%-25%.
2. Global emerging industry trends and key companies tracking
This article originated from the Financial Circle Network