What signal? The mortgage interest rate in these cities has been lowered, the transaction volume has stopped falling and rebounded, and the "small turning point" or "inflection point" of the property market has emerged?

Even if there is a "small turn" in the property market, it is only a short-term heating up on the way to winter.

According to the results of institutional statistics, the mortgage interest rate of the property market was reduced in October, and the lending cycle in some cities was shortened. At the same time, the recent volume data of some cities has also stopped falling and rebounded. Under the recent policy marginal relaxation released by the relevant departments on the real estate market and the improvement of the credit environment shown by the current institutional statistics, the market may be entering a "small turning point" in the downward cycle. However, some institutional survey results pointed out that the current credit environment in the property market has not improved significantly.

Experts interviewed by the China reporter of securities times and securities companies believe that under the signal of marginal relaxation of regulation and control released by the relevant ministries and commissions and the measures introduced by some cities to prevent the market from cooling down too quickly, the real estate market policy in the fourth quarter may slow down the market downward. However, even if the credit environment in some cities improves, it will not change the current overall tightening of housing loans. Even if the regulation changes, the regulation and control brought about by it can only lead to a "small turn", and it is difficult to lead to an "inflection point" in the market.

Mortgage interest rate cut in October?

According to the monitoring results of the Shell Research Institute, the interest rate of the first home loan in the 90 cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute in October was 5.73%, and the interest rate of the second set was 5.99%, both of which were 1 basis point lower than the previous month.

The data shows that in October, the mortgage interest rates of 20 cities in 90 cities were reduced, of which the interest rate of the first set of loans in 14 cities fell, the interest rate of the second home loan in 14 cities fell, and the interest rates of the first and second home loans in the overlapping 9 cities were reduced. The downgraded cities include Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Zhongshan and other Pearl River Delta cities, Wuxi, Huzhou and other Yangtze River Delta cities, in addition to Guangzhou, Shenzhen, other third- and fourth-tier cities.

In terms of lending cycle, Shell Research Institute pointed out that the average lending cycle of housing loans in 90 cities in October was 74 days, which was longer than the previous month. However, from the perspective of local cities, the lending cycle of Shanghai, Wuhu, Nanning, Yantai, Zhengzhou, Zhuzhou and other cities has been shortened compared with September.

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In addition, the Middle Finger Research Institute pointed out that the decline in the national commercial housing sales data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics in September has narrowed. Affected by the continuous regulation of property market policies in September, the sales area and sales of commercial housing in the country fell by 13.2% and 15.8% respectively, maintaining a double-digit decline for two consecutive months, and the decline was slightly narrower than that of the previous month. From January to September, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of sales area and sales of commercial housing nationwide continued to narrow. Among all regions, the cumulative growth rate of commercial housing sales area in the central and eastern regions exceeded 13%, but it was narrowed by 4.8 and 4.7 percentage points respectively compared with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate in the previous eight months.

Recently, the residential transaction volume in some cities has also shown a momentum of stopping the decline and picking up. Shenzhen, which continued to hit a record low in the number of second-hand housing online signatures in September, has improved after entering October. According to the data of Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediaries Association, from October 4 to 10, the number of second-hand houses (including self-help) online signatures in Shenzhen was 305 sets, a slight increase of 0.7% month-on-month. From October 11 to 17, the number of second-hand housing (including self-service) online signatures in Shenzhen was 447 sets, a slight increase of 46.6% from the previous month. Shenzhen Housing China Association expects that the market will then return to a stable level of online signing volume.

There are positive signals on the policy side, and the downward decline in the property market may slow down

For the monitoring results of the decline in mortgage interest rates in October, Shell Research Institute believes that since the end of September, the central bank has repeatedly released positive signals, and it is expected that the delivery of housing credit in the fourth quarter will return to "stable and orderly", and the first set of home buyers and the improvement of the first set of home buyers and the improvement of the first set of buyers will be guaranteed and supported. On the one hand, the scope of cities where mortgage interest rates will be reduced will be expanded, and on the other hand, the lending cycle will be shortened.

From the policy side, at the third quarter 2021 regular meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee on September 24, it was proposed to "safeguard the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers." ”。 Many places have also implemented policies in the recent past, through policies such as accelerating the return of pre-sale funds, reducing the cost of land for housing enterprises, and introducing measures such as "restriction orders", which are intended to prevent the market from cooling down too quickly.

Tao Jin, deputy director of the macro department of Suning Financial Research Institute, told the China reporter of Securities Times securities companies that in the context of stable credit monetary policy, signs of relaxation at both ends of real estate supply and demand have emerged. The demand side of the housing loan quota is relaxed, the interest rate is reduced, and the supply side has relaxed the window guidance under the framework of the "three red lines" and the concentration of housing loans, and carried out normal mortgage approval and risk control management. In this context, the just demand of the real estate market is still relatively strong, and marginal relaxation at the buying end may release a part of the just demand, market trading may be more active than in the previous period, and the downward trend in some cities will reverse.

Tao Jin believes that the demand released by the relaxation of the "housing" policy cannot be ignored, which may affect the magnitude of the real estate downward cycle. However, since the "housing" itself does not have the financial leverage and amplification effect, it is difficult to change the overall cycle direction of real estate in essence.

There is a backlog in loan demand and volume may continue to shrink

In fact, the results of recent surveys of the credit environment between institutions are not uniform. According to the survey data provided by the Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, as of October 10, the Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center has covered 34 cities in the mainland, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Nanjing. The results show that the overall mortgage tightened more than relaxed, and the lending cycle is still very long.

According to the survey results of the Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, as of early October, the mortgage interest rates of cities represented by Zhongshan, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Wuxi, Nanchang, Changzhou, Changsha, Jinan, Fuzhou and Tianjin continued to rise compared with the previous period, only Zhaoqing and Foshan had slight downward adjustments, and other cities basically remained stable.

(Photo courtesy of Centaline Real Estate Research Center)

"Our survey shows that mortgage relaxation has not appeared significantly, and the overall loan in hot cities has remained as tight as before." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told the Securities Times Brokerage China reporter that medium- and long-term loans to residents only increased by 468 billion yuan in September. As of October 10, the national mortgage quota is still mainly tightening. From the gap point of view, the overall gap in 2021 is close to 1-2 trillion housing loans, and most cities have a backlog of 3-6 months of stock transactions waiting for lending.

Zhang Dawei believes that from the perspective of loan data, it is expected that the adjustment of the property market will continue, and if there is no policy such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, the transaction volume of the property market in the fourth quarter will continue to shrink. Judging from the overall mortgage market in early October, tightening is still the trend.

In Tao Jin's view, the policy adjustment brought about by the latest statement of the relevant departments is more marginal and regional. From the perspective of higher-level real estate macro-control, the policy of "housing and not speculation" is very strong. However, in the follow-up around the "housing not speculation" formulated policy may be more distinguished between "housing" and "not speculation", that is, to ensure that the housing just needs to meet, while severely cracking down on speculation.

Looking forward to the future, Tao Jin believes that as real estate regulation becomes more meticulous and specific, there are many regulatory tools, even if the regulation changes, the regulation and control brought about by it is more subtle and structural, which can only lead to a "small turn", and it is difficult to lead to a "turning point" in the market.