The market hotspot switched, and Hu Hansan returned

1. The Shanghai Composite Index shrank slightly, recovering the 60-day line. The 60-day line of 3500 points has strong support, because: since the beginning of June, the daily trading volume has averaged 1.1 trillion yuan in the past 4 months, and the cumulative trading volume is about 90 trillion yuan, which will change the circulating market value 1.5 times, so that the average holding cost of the entire market for more than 3 months has increased to the range of 3500-3600 points.

2. Today's two cities have a turnover of less than 900 billion yuan, and the volume can shrink significantly for the following reasons: the 8 new stocks on the New Third Board are fully subscribed with funds, which locks in more than 500 billion funds; the 35 institutions in the market have made less than 3% of the annual profit of quantitative trading, and they are still loss-making in September, resulting in the convergence of quantitative trading institutions; the Hong Kong United Stock Exchange has suspended trading due to typhoons.

3. The cyclical industry led by resources has fallen sharply, and the mid-term head has been established: a bull market of coal, steel, electricity, oil, fertilizers, etc. has ended, where it will come from, and where it will go, no matter how the price of related commodities in the future market rises, it can no longer be touched.

4. At the end of a wave of bull market in the cyclical industry, the high-tech track represented by new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, chips and the large consumer sector led by liquor, food and beverage, home appliances, and medicine have undergone significant adjustments, and the valuation has reached a low level, and recently gradually stood up from the floor, the leading BYD, Guizhou Moutai is significantly stronger, Hu Hansan has come back, and the funds flowing from the peak of the cyclical stocks are gradually flowing to last year's institutional group stocks.

5. The emergence of quantitative trading this year has made many investors very panicked, thinking that the money they lose has been earned by quantitative robots, and some people believe that quantitative trading is the main driver of the de-retailization of US stocks. In fact, quantitative trading is just an artificial intelligence trading software designed by a group of young returnees using mathematics, statistics, etc., and its essence is an upgraded version of the trading software abandoned by the market in previous years.

6. From the perspective of the mature capital market of the US stock market, in the past ten years, the yield of quantitative trading institutions is far less effective than Buffett's value investment, and the biggest advantage of robot operation is that there is no interference from human negative emotions, and stop loss and take profit are programmed.

7. No matter how comprehensive the program design of quantitative trading is, it cannot deal with the complex and changeable disk in a timely and comprehensive manner, because there are too many factors affecting the change of stock price, too fast. Quantitative trading is typical short-term speculation, and there is only one way to make money from stock investment: long-term layout of high-growth companies supported by national policies. Any shortcut will eventually lead to a dead end, even google developed the world's strongest Alpha Dog (AlphaGo) artificial intelligence trading system, in the A-share trading for 36 months, the final net value loss continues to expand, and finally terminate the transaction.

8. Ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, urea, methanol futures have touched the stop, and the sharp decline in resource prices is a good phenomenon, because if the global commodity prices continue to rise and inflation further deteriorates, the US stock market is in danger of collapsing. As long as the US stock market does not collapse, A shares will continue to maintain the 3300-3700 point range shock, continue to deduce the structural market, and the key to making money depends on whether your layout is on the right path.