Author: Lingde Studio Hanbai
The global "new crown pneumonia" has been going on for a long time, and the public has long been tired of watching the relevant news. But in any case, Israel's several key data in recent months are definitely worth paying attention to.
The population of Israel is about 9.05 million people.
The local population over the age of 12 has a COVID-19 vaccination rate (2 doses completed) of 78% and a universal vaccination rate of 62%. Some elderly people in the local area have started the third dose of vaccination.
As of 15 September, there were 7,429 new cases per day, compared to a seven-day average of 8,904 cases. The cumulative number of confirmed cases is as high as 1.2 million.
There were about 14 deaths in a single day, with an average of 27 deaths in 7 days and 7,452 cumulative deaths.
Israel has reached the Western goal of "universal immunization", with 78% of people over the age of 12, but it has ushered in the fourth wave of the local epidemic, recording more than 1,000 confirmed cases per million people on August 16, soaring to the fifth place in the world. As of 15 September, 7,429 cases were confirmed in a single day. In addition, in this country, where vaccination rates have always been high, almost 1 in 8 people has been infected with "new crown pneumonia".
For the time being, vaccination still appears to reduce severe illness and mortality. Israel's recent death toll in a single day is only about 27; cumulatively, 7,452 are dead.
However, it is worth mentioning that shortly after the outbreak of the fourth wave of the epidemic, the number of deaths in Israel is still likely to lag. As of August 15, there were 514 critically ill patients in Israel, 59 percent of whom had received two doses of the vaccine, according to Science. In contrast, the highest number of deaths in a single day in recent days was 52, and before the public was vaccinated, the highest number of deaths in a single day at the beginning of the year was only about 80. Purely in terms of data, the increase in vaccination rates has not significantly suppressed the number of deaths.
Taken together, what does the above data tell us?
1. According to an Israeli expert, the effectiveness of the vaccine begins to weaken after the 5th month of vaccination. In addition, the vaccine is significantly less effective against the mutant virus. This expert hypothesis will obviously lead to the conclusion that the masses should need to receive the 3rd to 4th dose of the vaccine as soon as possible.
2. Israel is predominantly vaccinated with mRNA vaccine, and the local vaccination rate has been high, but there is still a fourth wave outbreak. This may have shown that the mRNA's defense power is significantly lower than the level earlier announced by the US pharmaceutical company. Of course, there are studies in Israel that vaccines are not strong enough to protect the mutant virus.
3. The high vaccination rate is completely unable to prevent the spread of the mutant virus and the outbreak of the epidemic. According to experts or pharmaceutical companies, the vaccination rate must be further increased to 90% to reach "herd immunity". But can Western countries force universal vaccination? Some experts also believe that we simply cannot rely on "high vaccination rate" to create a "herd immunity barrier", so we can simply ask people who are willing to be vaccinated to take a few more doses to continuously stimulate and increase antibodies.
5. But you might as well think about going a little deeper. At the beginning of the year, experts recommended vaccination rates to reach 70%. After everyone worked hard to "needle", the experts raised the requirements to 90%. Where did the 70% estimate come from? What is the reason for pushing it up to 90% now? Two injections raise the antibody, but only for 5 months. One more shot can produce more antibodies, but how long can it last? What credible justification is there when experts ask for needles?
6. After seeing the epidemic in Israel, we may wish to think clearly. Should we pursue the "coexistence with the virus" measures in Western countries? Or do we continue to adhere to the mainland's policies of "isolation and quarantine", "virus tracking" and "strict prevention of overseas imports"?
Finally, we may wish to summarize with the following data:
For the mainland government, the Hong Kong government's epidemic prevention level is of course unqualified. However, since the beginning of this year, the Hong Kong government has gradually followed the tone of the Mainland government, doing more containment tests and sealing management of overseas returnees, and the epidemic has begun to be controlled. Although Hong Kong still has many mistakes and omissions in the implementation of anti-epidemic measures, the general direction has not completely moved closer to the "coexistence with the virus" in the West, and there has been no chaos so far.