2020 is not a good vintage for the domestic wine industry, and both imported wines and Chinese wines have entered a deep adjustment. During the spring sugar season in 2021, there are a number of large wine-related forums held in a concentrated manner, but unlike the various spirits in previous years when the market was hot, most of the content has now become a variety of reflection meetings and cheering meetings.
In the industry's view, rather than saying that the epidemic has hit the domestic wine consumption market hard, it is better to say that the epidemic is more like a catalyst, detonating the "hidden diseases" accumulated in the development of the wine industry in the past in advance. But happily, under this round of collective reflection, some new changes are taking place.
Confused wine merchant
If you have to find a keyword for the domestic wine market in 2020, "bleak" is actually not accurate, for a considerable number of wine merchants, the wine business in 2020 does not have the same decline as the industry macro data, many wine merchants even have a good growth in sales, but a kind of anxiety and confusion about the road ahead is secretly breeding in the industry.
Sun Qiang is a municipal agent of a well-known domestic brand of wine in Shandong, but at this sugar and wine meeting, he appeared at the dinner party of a well-known sauce wine distributor, looking at the strange wine body in the glass and the "earthy" brand propaganda mode that is completely different from the wine, which always made him feel a little out of place.
In 2020, the overall sales of Sun Qiang's wine business increased slightly compared with 2019, and after the epidemic improved, compared with the rapid recovery and increasing popularity of the business of other friends who make liquor and beer, he felt that his wine business was more like a supporting role. After 15 years in the industry, he had the idea of changing tracks for the first time.
Sun Qiang became a distributor of the brand's wine as early as 2006, when although the local sales of wine were not large, but the profit margin was considerable, and Sun Qiang believed that domestic wine consumption was still in its infancy, once the market matured, insist on it and there would be a day when the market broke out.
But the long-term persistence did not bring the imaginary results.
In the past 15 years, he has survived the industry trough in 2012, and also waited for the market restart in 2015, although the market has been optimistic about the prospects of the wine business in the past 2-3 years, but after several efforts, Sun Qiang's wine business has been far from his expectations.
"When tasting, we say that the wine is good, but when we actually consume it, we forget it." Sun Qiang told the first financial reporter that it is difficult to retain wine customers in actual sales, and each tasting meeting is full of friends and praise, but when it comes to inviting guests to use wine, most consumers will still choose to use liquor instead of wine.
The market changes in 2020 make Sun Qiang feel more anxious and confused, "I feel that I can't wait", because I have to pay every year to complete the sales task, but I can't sell it every year, and Sun Qiang's warehouse has also saved millions of yuan of inventory.
"How nice it would be if it were liquor!" Sun Qiang sighed that since 2018, with the rise in the overall market price of liquor, the inventory of liquor is equivalent to increasing the price every year, and he has to deal with the early advent products at a low price every year, and it is difficult to balance Sun Qiang's heart whenever he thinks of it.
Therefore, this year, Sun Qiang intends to adjust the focus of business, taking advantage of the sauce wine fever to represent a well-known domestic brand of sauce wine products, on the one hand, to test the liquor track, on the other hand, hope to use liquor to drive the sales of wine products.
Sun Qiang is just a microcosm of many domestic vintners.
After years of industry adjustment, coupled with the sluggish performance of the industry since 2020, even the anxiety of some industry giants is increasing day by day.
At an industry forum, Wu Hao, CEO of Beijing Yimai International Liquor, admitted that on the night of arriving at the hotel, he went downstairs at 4 a.m. and looked at all the products in the hotel exhibition hall on the two floors downstairs to see how everyone innovated, hoping to find some useful experience.
A dismal year of data
The anxiety and confusion in this industry actually comes from uncertainty about the future direction of the market, which is undoubtedly exacerbated by the performance of the wine market in 2020.
Since 2018, compared with the liquor and beer business in full swing, the macro data of Chinese wine and imported wine has declined continuously, and in 2020, the domestic wine market under the epidemic has suffered a "cold winter", and the rebound is weak, and even worse than the performance of the rice wine industry that has been difficult to break through.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to December 2020, the total output of wine production enterprises above designated size in the country was 413,300 kiloliters, down 6% year-on-year; 40 of the 130 large-scale enterprises were loss-making enterprises, and the loss surface of enterprises was 30.77%. The cumulative sales revenue for the whole year was 10.021 billion yuan, down 29.82% compared with the same period of the previous year; the total realized profit was 259 million yuan, down 74.48% compared with the same period of the previous year.
If you take into account that Zhangyu's previously announced performance forecast is expected to have a net profit of 470 million yuan to 570 million yuan in 2020, excluding the part of Zhangyu, the operation of the remaining 129 domestic wine companies above designated size can be imagined.
In 2020, Sun Jian, general manager of Zhangyu, lamented in an interview with First Finance and Economics that 2020 may be the worst year for Chinese wine in the past decade.
Imported wines, which are thought to have robbed China of the wine business, are also having a bad time.
At the China International Wine Industry Forum held during the Spring Sugar Festival, the Wine Importers and Exporters Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Food, Soil and Livestock released the wine import data for the whole year of 2020, and the domestic import of wine in 2020 was 1.83 billion US dollars, down 24.9% year-on-year.
In 2018 and 2019, the imported wine industry declined for 2 consecutive years, but there was not much worry in the industry, because this adjustment was also considered a self-correction after the industry overheated.
According to Wang Xuwei, secretary general of the Liquor Importers and Exporters Branch of the Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Native Animals, the decline in import data from 2018 to 2019 is a benign adjustment, because the association found that more than half of the imported enterprises are still growing positively, but the adjustment depth of imported wine in 2020 has changed, not only the decline has been greater, and the trend of "white dyeing red" (liquor distributors making wine) in the industry has been replaced by "red dyeing" or "red dyeing sauce". In the opinion of the association, this is also the first deep adjustment of imported wine in ten years.
In-depth reflection on the industry
At the beginning of the outbreak, domestic wine consumption has declined sharply, which is related to the epidemic blocking the consumption scene of wine, and wine consumption in China mainly comes from drinking, including catering, nightclubs, etc., and there is less family consumption, so the direct impact of the epidemic is more obvious.
However, after the domestic epidemic improved, alcohol consumption picked up rapidly, but it was considered to be a healthy wine consumption wine market, and the recovery speed lagged far behind other wines, which somewhat surprised the industry.
"The pandemic has exposed a number of problems in the wine industry ahead of schedule and in a concentrated manner." Wang Zuming, secretary general of the China Liquor Circulation Association and the Wine Professional Committee, said that the board cannot only hit the impact of the epidemic, and the root cause of such a situation lies in the industry itself.
Although wine products are already common in daily consumption channels, and even there are several wines on sale in small street grocery stores, wine has not really entered the hearts of Chinese consumers.
In Wang Zuming's view, due to factors such as culture and living habits, Chinese consumers do not have the gene of naturally accepting wine, and the deformed positioning of wine in the early market, coupled with the long-term promotion of products, the wine is aristocratic, mystified and standardized, and even evolved into pseudo-aristocratic, and this lofty model has widened the distance between ordinary consumers and wine.
This is also a historical problem faced by the development of Chinese wine, the rise of Chinese wine consumption is related to the drive of Hong Kong businessmen, while investing in the mainland, Hong Kong businessmen will bring high-end wine from Hong Kong to the mainland for consumption; after 2007, the rise of political and commercial consumption is also driven by the consumption of famous wine, so domestic wine consumption is almost starting from the high-end market, which also hinders the popularity of wine in China.
In recent years, the public consumption of wine has gradually become hot, the number of domestic wine market promotion activities is large, a variety of master classes, tasting will continue, but behind the seemingly lively, most of these promotion activities copy the Western model and discourse system, divorced from the reality of China's wine consumption market, more or in the wine lover circle to entertain themselves, and did not really land.
Sun Jian told the first financial reporter that it is necessary to reflect on whether the old promotion model in the industry is using the wrong force, and the westernized model of excessive emphasis on meal and wine collocation and drinking methods in the past has made ordinary domestic consumers have a sense of distance and fear of wine consumption, which has also led to the basic plate of the domestic wine consumption market not growing rapidly. In the next step, the industry should consider how to combine wine with the consumption scene of Chinese people, so that wine consumption can enter daily life.
Wang Zuming also said that wine should be returned to the essence of beverage wine, especially at the moment, do not let the young people who are about to become a wine consumer group once again enter the dilemma of not understanding wine knowledge and not understanding wine culture and not daring to discuss and drink wine.
On the other hand, due to the domestic market and the vast area, domestic wine has formed a multi-level distribution system, although this system has accelerated the laying of domestic wine channels and the overall market development, but with the passage of time, its problems are gradually emerging.
The previous development of the domestic wine industry belongs to the collective unconscious period, many traders, distributors themselves know very little about wine, just follow the industry dividends to make money, be a good channel "porter", and in the actual sales link, due to the relatively high proportion of domestic liquor group purchase sales, this belongs to a kind of interpersonal relationship realization, not the real brand and product drive.
Under this model, the cooperation between distributors and brands is mostly a simple trade model, and the brand side is more willing to put money into channels to stimulate sales, rather than spending it on brand building; and dealers are not willing to "raise sons for others" to cultivate brands, which also leads to bottlenecks in the development of domestic wine industry brands.
The lack of brands has also created a high degree of fragmentation in the Chinese wine market. In the traditional group buying model, dealers hope to get more "exclusive" products, the use of information opacity to maximize their own interests, in order to meet the needs of channels, a large number of channel development products and OEM products flooded the market, bringing chaos to the market, and brought the problem of "heavy marketing, light quality", a large number of high-priced and low-quality products have caused harm to consumer confidence.
In the eyes of the industry, there is no problem with the wine industry track, what is wrong is the players and the rules of the race.
Peng Yong, general manager of the warehouse next door in 1919, told the first financial reporter that the industry has always paid attention to the cultivation of the consumer side, but ignored the cultivation and standardization of the dealer side, and some dealers entered the wine industry with the idea of making quick money, which also caused a series of problems.
Chen Xuguang, general manager of the domestic large commercial Jianfa Liquor Industry, said at the industry forum during the spring sugar period that if the main problems faced by the industry cannot be solved, this decline will not be fundamentally reversed within 1-2 years.
Chinese wine is changing
In the past 1-2 months, with the basic end of the impact of the domestic epidemic, the rapid recovery of catering, outdoor and other consumption has also led to the recovery of domestic wine consumption, and during the spring sugar period, the industry is most concerned about whether the industry has bottomed out and whether the inflection point has come.
But in the view of many respondents, the inflection point of discussion of industry data today is not of great significance, whether it is domestic or imported wine, the top priority is to make a large market cake, the big river has water and small river, which is the most basic business logic, because the competition in the future market is the competition between wine and other wines, and the total amount of wine consumption at present accounts for only 4% of domestic alcohol consumption, and there is a danger of being marginalized.
During this year's spring sugar and wine fair, the first financial reporter noted that driven by the head enterprises, China's local wine industry took the lead in some positive changes, but also brought more new possibilities.
On the one hand, the leading wine companies in China are returning to the mass consumer market with high-quality products.
During the spring sugar period, the head enterprises of domestic wines, including Zhangyu, Great Wall, West Pigeon Winery, etc., invariably concentrated on displaying the new products launched for the mass consumer market, such as the Jade Pigeon National Lottery series launched by West Pigeon Winery, Zhangyu launched a number of Lihuaxiang and Guochao series, and COFCO Great Wall's Great Wall Jiu series, all of which belong to the mass consumption products priced at the level of 100 yuan.
The reporter noted that different from the traditional low-cost and low-quality mass consumer products, these new products in addition to high value, in terms of quality and drinkability have also been greatly improved, intended to expand the consumer market, seeking increment.
In terms of product design, domestic wine companies are also putting down their bodies and striving to cater to the tastes of domestic consumers.
Taking the 100-yuan large single product "Great Wall Nine" launched by COFCO Great Wall Wine as an example, in the research and development process, COFCO Nutrition and Health Research Institute first conducted research on commercially available Internet red products and consumer preferences, gave big data and taste analysis, on this basis, the winemaker team developed product solutions, and after molding, it was again carried out multiple rounds of consumer taste blind testing, and adjusted according to consumer suggestions, and finally formed a product, which is actually a reverse research and development.
Li Jin, a winemaker at COFCO Great Wall, told the first financial reporter that when doing consumer reviews, he once recommended a version that he thought was more satisfactory, but in the end it was ruthlessly PASSed by consumers.
This is a very interesting change, in the past a long time, the domestic wine industry by the old world style system is more affected by the more emphasis on professionalism, that is, from a professional point of view to shape the product, and then to consumers to transmit and interpret the selling point, but the actual result of most domestic consumers' taste and professional products are not in the same channel.
Liu Xin, deputy secretary of the party committee and deputy general manager of COFCO Great Wall Wine, told the first financial reporter that this is also an exploration of China's wine consumption market, what kind of wine Chinese consumers need, especially under the new consumption trend after 90 and 00, the size of this consumer group has reached 370 million people, their consumption is more personalized, emotional, self-pleasing, obtaining product information and purchasing methods are very different from the past, and a new generation of consumers are more likely to accept wine. Also considered the future of the domestic wine market, COFCO Great Wall hopes to find some innovative ways to impress them and attract them to consume wine.
In the marketing and dissemination of wine, domestic wine companies have also begun to become more grounded.
On April 8, Zhangyu announced the establishment of Shanghai Zhangyu Guoqu Digital Technology Co., Ltd., which will provide Zhangyu with big data analysis for users and provide users with personalized services based on data; in addition, Zhangyu also hopes to incubate wine Internet celebrities through this platform, carry out live streaming with goods, etc., and use the outlet of short videos to tell wine stories in an easy-to-understand way on social platforms such as Douyin, Kuaishou, Volcano, Zhihu, and Xiaohongshu, and cultivate wine consumption habits and consumption scenarios.
On the other hand, in the deep adjustment of the industry, the independent interest distribution system of manufacturers and dealers is changing, and the two have begun to seek group warmth.
During the spring sugar and wine party, Zhang Yu announced the establishment of Yufeng Company, which is also a joint venture company established by Zhang Yu and 9 channel providers, the latter including traditional channels and Internet channels and other formats, and the general manager of Yufeng Company, Zhu Feng, is also the CEO of BaijiuYunjiu, a well-known domestic boutique wine e-commerce company.
According to Zhu Feng, Yufeng Company will operate some of Zhangyu's imported wine business, after the joint venture, the channel merchants have solved the problem of Zhangyu's imported wine sales channels; and through the model of manufacturer integration, it has also solved the problem of "raising sons for others" on the road of wine branding; and the model of "brand + big business" has reduced the intermediate channel links and mark-up rate, which can reduce the price of terminal products and is also conducive to market promotion and sales.
In addition, the reporter learned that domestic wine companies such as West Pigeon Winery and Loulan Winery have also announced on different occasions the idea of intending to launch excellent distributor shareholding in the future.
Distributor shareholding may not be the best solution for the development of the domestic wine industry, but in the short term, domestic wine brands are not strong, sales must rely on dealer channels to promote, and distributors with similar value concepts and brands will join forces to form a joint force, which will also accelerate the process of branding in the domestic wine market.
Put down the old map and pick up the binoculars
This year's spring sugar may also be the first large-scale review and reflection on the development of the domestic wine industry since the recovery of the wine industry in 2015, and it is also the first time that a strong attitude of independent development has been shown.
At a party during the spring sugar season, several wine industry leaders and chief winemakers simply removed the goblets that symbolized Western wine culture, switched to white porcelain bowls to drink wine, and abandoned red tape to show their determination to change.
This change is not to break with Western wine culture, but to let wine embrace the Chinese market and Chinese consumers in a more natural and suitable way.
From the perspective of the development of the modern wine industry, Western wine-producing countries are indeed more advanced, which is closely related to their history, religious culture, eating habits, etc., and they have also established a complete set of knowledge, evaluation and discourse expression system. For a long time in the past, the marketing and promotion of the domestic wine market has mostly been based on this architectural system, and the enlightenment of the domestic wine consumption market has also been completed.
It should be said that this architectural system has its value from a professional point of view, but in the Chinese market, where wine consumption is still in its infancy, it may be too profound.
For trained wine lovers, listening to the description of "sweet and juicy black plums, prunes, cedar with a little cigar box taste, very chewy", will be like a spring breeze, incomparably useful, but in the ears of consumers who have no consumption basis, it has become a dimensionality-reducing percussion education, these descriptions and the products full of alcohol in the cup are difficult to match, perhaps the feeling is more of a dazed and taste like chewing wax.
Moreover, western table wine pairings and eating habits do not have much in common with China's eating and drinking habits, so there are also great differences in the actual consumption needs of wine. Just as in the Western wine judging system, acidity is an important level and is considered the skeleton of wine, but it is not fond of acid in Chinese eating habits.
On the day of the launch of Zhangyu Guoqu Company, a big data statistical analysis was conducted on the guests, media, and wine merchants on the spot, although this is not an accurate consumer sample, but the data obtained may be more worth thinking about.
The data of the day showed that in terms of the frequency of drinking wine, 61% of the respondents chose to drink occasionally, and the proportion of drinkers several times a month and several times a week was 28% and 6%, but only 28% preferred dry wines in the choice of what flavor of wine they liked.
When the industry was hot, Yin Kai, then president of Castella China, the largest Wine Company in France, once asked the first financial reporter a question, China's market is very large, so it is easy to find some good data to make optimistic judgments, but is the actual market consumer's consumption concept change as optimistic as the data?
In this epidemic, it has also exposed the embarrassment that the current domestic wine consumption has not really taken root in the market.
For imported wine or The Chinese wine industry, it may be time to change the way of thinking, first solve the problem of "have and not", and then solve the problem of "having to diversity", on the one hand, as often said in the wine industry, only the right wine is good; on the other hand, with the old map, it is indeed impossible to find a new continent.
(Sun Qiang is a pseudonym in the text)