When will the TARIFFs on Sino-US trade be lifted? Will A shares have a big positive in the next two weeks?

Biden has been in office for a year, when will the trade war policy of the previous Trump era be adjusted? At present, the relevant expectations have become more and more intense. Today, the old scalper will calculate for you when the most important measure in the trade war, the US tariffs on China, can be cancelled.

Since Biden took office, in fact, all aspects have been "purgeing" Trump, whether it is personnel or diplomacy, they are making comprehensive adjustments.

In general, personnel takes precedence over policies. Therefore, in the first year after Biden took office, the main work focused on personnel adjustments and cleaned up Trump's "remnant party". The recent arrest of Bannon, for example, is an example. As he enters his second year in office, the adjustment will gradually shift from personnel transition to the field of foreign policy.

Among them, the trade war is the biggest foreign policy direction under Trump, and it is also an area where Biden will make adjustments when he redefines Sino-US relations.

The first thing that bears the brunt of this is the cancellation of the tariff policy introduced during the Trump era.

So, everyone is expecting that the tariffs will be canceled, and we all know that this will be a great benefit to the market, but when will it be canceled?

In fact, from the public information, it has been possible to accurately calculate this time point.

In the 2022 financial budget released by Biden, under the fiscal revenue item, the increase in trade tariffs from China is expected to decrease by 70% year-on-year.

If the next year is 70% less than the year-on-year increase, that is, only 30% of the amount of this year can be received, which means that only 3.6 months (12 months * 30% = 3.6 months) can be levied in the next year.

Considering that the fiscal year of the United States starts on October 1 of each year, it is postponed 3.6 months back, that is, January 18.

That is to say, if nothing else, the additional tariffs will be received by January 18 next year and officially cancelled on Wednesday, January 19, the next day.

If a slight margin of error is allowed, a policy would usually choose Monday as a starting point, and given that both sides want to end the trade war as soon as possible, it is possible to choose the Monday before January 19, that is, January 17 next year, to officially take effect and stop imposing trade tariffs on China.

So, is it that the capital market will usher in a favorable situation in the middle of January next year? Of course not.

Such a policy is usually not announced suddenly until that day, but will be announced in advance, and then tell everyone which day to start implementing. Just like when the tariffs were announced, in order to give foreign trade enterprises some preparations and buffers, it will not be announced today that it will start to be levied tomorrow, but will announce in advance that it will be levied, and tell everyone which day to start collecting.

For example, when the march began, the US side announced it on July 11, 2018, and the implementation began on September 24, with an interval of more than 2 months.

Comparing this time frame, the announcement of cancellation can also be used as a reference, from January 17 forward about two months, about November announcement.

When will it be announced? It depends on what important time nodes there are during this time.

We know that next week, October 30-31, there will be a G20 summit. The Glasgow Climate Change Conference will be held from 1 to 12 November. At these two meetings, the United States hopes to get the leadership of the world's lowest tax rate and carbon emissions. This is an important rule of the game that will affect the next 50 years.

In order to achieve their goals, the United States is also likely to put some chips in other areas in the near future in exchange for the support of other countries.

Among them, China is a very influential country, so it is also a country that the United States must vigorously win over in the near future. During these two conferences, by ending the trade war to release warmth, the cost performance for the United States is very high. In particular, if a video meeting between the leaders of the two countries can be achieved during the General Assembly, much will be achieved. Among them, it is likely to include the option of abolishing tariffs.

Once this policy is publicly announced, it will also bring some warmth to the market. Before the official announcement of the two sides, the funds known by Chunjiang Plumbing in advance will also be laid out in advance of the market.

Of course, the above is based on the current public information. This result is the most cost-effective choice for the US side. However, the international situation is changing rapidly, and no one can guarantee that the other side will not come to a round of extreme pressure and produce a moth to force us to give more benefits.

Anyway, the two important conference time points are already close, wait for the news. If you feel that the calculation logic of the old scalper makes sense, welcome to the lower right corner and click in the watch. I also wish you to grasp the trading time of the last two months of this year and let the profit roll over. Welcome to pay attention to CBN, we provide you with the most timely information and the most professional interpretation.

Views are for informational purposes and do not constitute investment advice

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