The New Deal closed a door, but opened a window.
After the strictest purchase restriction in Shenzhen 715, the Shenzhen property market is undergoing major changes, one of the changes is that Shenzhen apartment products will face a systematic value revaluation, and the future prospects are promising!
In the past, many people arbitrarily believed that all apartments were not worth buying, which in itself was a wrong view. Next, due to the impact of the 715 regulation and the subsequent cessation of approval of commercial apartments, this view is even more wrong.
Tao Ge believes that starting now, we should decisively buy shenzhen high-quality apartments, and the self-occupied attributes and value-preserving and appreciation capabilities of some high-quality apartments will be stronger than many residences. Here's why:
1, to judge the prospects of a market, the key is supply and demand. Supply outstrips demand, bullish; oversupply, bearish. Shenzhen quality apartments, followed by a market in short supply, because the supply is shrinking and the demand is increasing.
2. From the perspective of the demand for apartments, the transaction of commercial apartments in Shenzhen in 2019 is about 1.09 million square meters, which represents the normal demand in the past.
However, the 715 New Deal has led to more than 50% of Shenzhen's residential housing demand is difficult to achieve in the short term, and this very large demand will inevitably overflow the purchasing power. The main spillover directions include Shenzhen apartments, Huizhou residences in Dongguan, Zhongshan in Nansha, on the west bank of the Pearl River, and small property rights houses.
Among them, Shenzhen's high-quality apartments are a major direction, especially for the high-end purchasing power, the flow to the apartment market is more likely than the flow to the surrounding cities.
3. From the perspective of the supply of apartments, the core areas and hot spots in Shenzhen, such as the supply of business apartments in Futian Nanshan Qianhaibao, are not too many in themselves (taoge has a statistical table below).
At the same time, Shenzhen stopped the approval of commercial apartments, and the supply of incremental commercial apartments in the future is facing a supply cut, and the supply is falling off a cliff.
4, the future supply is facing a supply cut, but the demand is still relatively strong, and even continue to increase.
Graduates who have just graduated from school and come to Shenzhen, new Shenzhen people who have just settled down, people who are optimistic about Shenzhen and want to share the development of Shenzhen, Shenzhen people who have already had many houses and want to continue to buy houses... Wait a minute. These demands for business apartments remained, as the impact of the 715 New Deal increased.
5, from 2019, the stock market shock upwards, technology stocks, food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, brokerages and other stocks rose hugely, many people did make a lot of money in the stock market, there are assets cashed out for the demand for real estate. Tao Ge has reached out to a number of similar fans and bought tens of millions of high-quality apartments.
6, Shenzhen itself has a large number of listed companies, there are 8 of the world's top 500, at the same time, the next Shenzhen GEM registration system, will be mass production of multi-millionaires, billionaires, these are also Shenzhen high-quality apartments, luxury apartment target customers.
7, although due to the impact of the epidemic this year, some industries are sluggish, but also some industries are like opening a printing machine, Tao Ge learned that a pharmaceutical industry, the first half of the year earned a lot of pots, originally prepared to fight new, and then after the 715 New Deal, the quota was completely destroyed, and finally chose to buy an apartment.
After the 8th and 715 New Deals, some of the disadvantages of apartments relative to residential buildings were less obvious.
For example, the down payment is 60%, 80% of the down payment is now purchased for non-ordinary houses, and the down payment of the apartment is only 4.5-60%, which is more advantageous than the residence.
In terms of taxes and fees, the residential exemption has changed from 2 years to 5 years, and the standard of ordinary residences is also very strict, and if you do not pay attention, you will become a mansion and pay a mansion tax. It can be said that the tax gap between residential and apartments has become smaller.
The most critical, in some core areas and hot spots in Shenzhen, such as Futian Xiangmi Lake, Nanshan Shenzhen Bay, Qianhai, etc., at present, new houses are only supplied by apartments, and there are no residences. And some apartment products are indeed very high quality.
9, next, Taoge is clearly optimistic about Shenzhen's high-quality apartments, which is not just inference. At present, the market has had a clear response, according to the exchanges between Tao Ge and developers, the apartment market in hot areas, after the 715 New Deal, has obviously heated up, and there has been a japanese disc.
Tao Ge estimates that the trend of apartment popularity has just begun, and the revaluation of apartments has just begun. In essence, both apartments and residences rely on the value of the location, which has been somewhat deformed by the Shenzhen people's pursuit of residences, and the New Deal corrects this while opening up the value space of the apartment.
01. Shenzhen property market fell by 20%? I really think about it
What follows is still the structural market
Let's talk about the overall impact of the 715 New Deal. TaoGe believes that the short-term transaction volume of the Shenzhen property market will not affect the medium and long-term trend, and the central area luxury houses, degree houses, and Shenzhen Bay Qianhaibao medium hot spots will be the first to go out of the impact and gradually rise.
After this regulation in Shenzhen, there is a Shanghai Beijing big V saying that Shenzhen house prices will fall by 20%? Tao Ge believes that it is impossible, and the Shenzhen market is very resilient.
In essence, Shenzhen is a small city, land resources are scarce, and demand is very strong, and this fundamental will not change in the dimension of 2 or 3 years. In the short term, the demand may have dropped by 50%, but the supply is still small, and the new policy has also reduced the supply of second-hand houses, and the contradiction between the long-term supply and demand in the Shenzhen property market has not been reversed in nature.
A key judgment of Tao ge on the future market is that after short-term fluctuations, the structural market continues.
When the market begins to adjust in the short term, the safest is the central asset, and after the market has passed the 3-6 month wait-and-see period, the follow-up market may continue to have structural markets: the central area luxury houses, degree houses, Shenzhen Bay Qianhaibao medium hotspot area is the first to come out of the impact, and gradually rise.
This structural market is similar to the structural market led by Shenzhen Bay in 2017-2019. In 2015, Shenzhen house prices doubled, Shenzhen began to regulate in March 2016, October 4, 2016 was introduced at that time known as "the strictest regulation in history", 2017-2019 Shenzhen property market is a structural market.
The most eye-catching performance is Shenzhen Bay, China Resources City, Xiangmi Lake, with luxury houses and degree houses as the main force, because after the demand is extremely contracted, the remaining purchasing power will be concentrated in the central area and concentrated on the best quality real estate.
Because the people who buy these mansions are not short of money at all, because the currency is still being issued, including the ChiNext board and the registration system, their assets are still increasing, to put it bluntly, it is to spend the money.
Don't underestimate Shenzhen's ability to absorb and create wealth.
02.
In the context of liquidity filling
Holding cash is equivalent to running naked
The situation of the property market this year is very complicated, and we must not only look at the regulation and control of the property market, the property market is not in a vacuum, but also look at the overall monetary, economic and financial trends.
The most certain thing in 2020 is that the global liquidity wave is terrible, and we are in a monetary easing cycle, similar to 2009 and 2015. The world's printing money has just begun, and a few days ago, the United States passed another 1.3 trillion stimulus policy.
Tao Ge reminds everyone that in this context, buying a house is better than holding cash. As Tao Ge has been reminding before, there will be a shortage of high-quality assets in the future, and the most reliable high-quality assets for the people are houses. So the demand for a house hasn't really disappeared, it's just suppressed and postponed! Funds never sleep, funds will find their way out!
Let's calculate the account, in 2019 Shenzhen traded 120,000 suites, if the transaction in 2020 and last year is the same, then the new deal suppresses half of the demand - 60,000 sets. Data from the China Real Estate Association: The average price in Shenzhen in June was 74,929 yuan per square meter, calculated according to a suite of 100 square meters, which suppressed 60,000 sets a year, and the purchasing power of a total of 450 billion yuan was suppressed.
With the purchasing power of 450 billion, how to break through and break through? Tao Ge feels that there may be the following 5 directions:
1, there is a quota, or continue to flock to the new market of Internet celebrities.
2, Shenzhen core area, hot area apartments, the heat is obvious.
3, Linshen property market, Dongguan Huizhou, has been repeatedly speculated.
4. Zero deep property market: the west bank of the Pearl River, south of the sand zhongshan Zhuhai.
5, small property rights housing, gray area, there are risks.
In fact, after the regulation, the apartment ushered in a big wave of enthusiasm:
Hongrongyuan Tianjun of Shenzhen North Railway Station, with an average price of 61,500 apartments, a total of 1,036 units, has an intermediary post in the circle of friends: more than 900 sets were sold in 2 minutes.
Qianhai Kerry, the average price of 97,600 apartments, 264 units sold out on the same day.
Bantian Vanke Wanzhi Building, with an average price of 38,500 apartments and 369 units, sold more than 300 units a week.
Why the apartment is on fire, in fact, the reason is very simple,
If you can't buy a house for the time being, and you don't plan to buy an apartment now, in the era of big water release, the cash in your hand will only depreciate, which is equivalent to running naked.
03.
Business apartments are suspended for approval
Spring for quality apartments is here
Self-occupied apartments are almost out of supply
Just when the sale of apartments is hot, on July 31, Shenzhen issued a document to stop the approval of business apartments, and the land and planning of business apartments are no longer approved.
The background of the introduction of this policy is that the supply of business apartments in 2019 was 19,301 units, a new high in recent years, with a supply area of 1.75 million square meters. The demand for business apartments is also very large, with an annual transaction area of 1.09 million square meters (residential transaction area is 3.72 million square meters).
Taoge analyzed that after the 731 New Deal, the supply of business apartments is about to be cut off, and only the stock can be traded. However, this demand for unlimited purchases and unlimited loans must be long-standing.
Note that look at the figure below, the residential and apartment supply table in the core area of Shenzhen, the red is the apartment, the green is the residence, basically there are very few residences to choose from, mainly apartments.
Taoge collated the study and found that the core area apartments have these characteristics: the core lot is top-roofed; a small amount of small-area investment types are for sale; self-occupied livable apartments are almost out of supply, such as Kingkey Yujingfeng, and a small number of 116-158㎡ 3-4 rooms.
In the future, self-occupied livable apartments may be sought after by the market, because on the one hand, the supply is very small (the mainstream is either a top luxury apartment, or a small area investment rental apartment), on the other hand, the demand is strong (under the influence of the New Deal, it is impossible to buy a house in the short term).
Taking the self-occupied livable apartment of Kingkey Yujingfeng as an example, it is found that the proportion of self-occupied apartments is extremely high.
1, 70% of the customers from Futian Nanshan, these customers are not willing to leave Guannei, Guannei's supporting mature, high population quality, many pursuit of quality, the pursuit of livable self-living people still choose here.
2, 80% of buyers belong to the demand for self-occupation, Kingkey Yujingfeng just joined this year, the self-occupancy rate is very high, the underground parking lot is full of cars.
3, 100% of buyers like mountain view resources, there are mountains and water, good environment, close to Futian.
To summarize Tao Ge's views on the post-New Deal apartment:
1. Optimistic about the high-quality apartments in the central area of Shenzhen.
2, the central area of the apartment is very scarce, outside the guanwai is relatively less scarce.
3, the annual demand for about 1 million square meters of apartments, long-term existence.
4, 715 after the new deal, the purchase restriction is very strict, asset preservation, foreign to Shenzhen, share the needs of Shenzhen urban growth but still exist, can only buy apartments.
5. Self-occupied apartments are more rare and continue to be optimistic.
04.
Break down a bias: apartments don't make money
Core condominium assets are still worth investing in
Many people think that apartments are pits, in fact, from the perspective of historical experience, really high-quality Shenzhen apartments can also make money. Tao Ge shared three typical cases with you.
Case 1: The Kingkey Riverside Era.
For example, the Kingkey Riverside Era, which is close to Futian CBD, opened more than 40,000 that year, and now it is 74,000-78,000 second-hand. The rent is also extremely high, 34 square meters of a room actually put rent 7800 yuan, 43 some rent 9460 yuan.
According to this rent calculation, even if you do not sell the house to continue to hold, the rental yield of the first-hand owner is close to 6%, which can be completely offset by rent, and there is positive cash flow, both the rent and the house price are in an upward trend, so the owner is very comfortable.
Case 2: Software industry base.
This project is located in the Science and Technology Park, which was promoted by the Shenzhen Real Estate Information Network at that time, and Taoge remembers it very clearly, and the advertising slogan is: Thirty-three thousand, live in Nanshan. This means that the average price is 33,000.
The opening time is about the fourth quarter of 2013, the average price is 33,000, and there are more than 40, 70-80, and more than 100 units. How much is the price now? Take a look at one of the transaction prices below: 8.34 million.
At the current listing price, the apartments in the software industry base sell for 80,000-90,000, and if 33,000 are started that year, the increase is also 2.42 times -2.72 times. This increase is actually similar to the surrounding degree room of the South Second Outer Headquarters! At that time, the coastal window was about 60,000, and now it is calculated according to 160,000, which is about 2.66 times.
This shows that the asset growth of the core area is high, and this core location will give all kinds of assets growth, whether you are an apartment or a residence!
In fact, we found that
In a truly high-quality location, if you do not consider the premium of a degree from a prestigious university, the price of a high-quality apartment is not inferior to that of a residence.
For example, the apartment prices of Qianhai Kerry Centre, IFC and Hongrongyuan Yinpu ranged from 120,000 to 180,000; in contrast, the residential buildings in the Qianhai era were only 130,000.
Taoge predicts that Shenzhen apartments are rapidly becoming luxury homes, and the price difference between apartments and residences in the core area will be greatly reduced in the next 3 to 5 years.
"Experts" who arbitrarily believe that apartments cannot be bought, you can block them:
1, the professional is not enough, still in the initial stage of real estate.
2, lack of experience, do not know that there are many buy apartments to make money.
3, the wealth is not enough, still struggling for the first suite, do not understand that many people have bought enough houses, indeed there is no quota.
4, the level is not enough, only understand the residential surge, do not know that many large funds are actually more concerned about: long-term allocation of assets, hedging, the degree of tolerance of funds, stability, sustainability, cash flow and so on.
5, carved boat for the sword, will not keep pace with the times, did not analyze the changes after the New Deal.
In essence, whether it is a residence or an apartment, it is based on the value of the land, the value of the precinct, and the monetary environment, but because the added value of the residence is higher (degree, household, etc.), there is a higher premium.
However, if the value of land, the value of the precinct, the monetary environment, etc. increase, the apartment will benefit from the appreciation of the same as the dwelling. It's just that the selection of apartments is more stringent than that of residences, so think clearly about what exactly you are after? Rent, owner-occupied, landscape, lot, long-term allocation of assets, etc.
Self-occupied apartments in the core area of Shenzhen
Only a small number of listings remain in Kingkey Yujingfeng
Finally, Tao Ge recommends a high-quality apartment project to everyone, located in Nanshan University Town, Kingkey Yujingfeng, which is currently one of the few self-occupied livable apartments on the market.
The project features are obvious:
1. The property on the subway is covered, and the double high-speed rail station radiates.
The project is located in Shenzhen Nanshan University Town Liuxian Avenue Changlingpi Subway Station Exit A1, the real subway superstructure property, one station transfer to Shenzhen North Railway Station, convenient and fast.
The location of Kingkey Yujingfeng is actually very special, at the junction of Nanshan, Futian and Longhua, it is very convenient to go to various areas. It is connected by Changlingpi Station of Line 5, providing easy access to the No. 4, 5, 7 and 13 (under construction) subways.
Line 5 currently has one stop to reach Shenzhen North, and the southern extension line connects to Qianhai Area. In the future, Line 5 can connect the planned No. 13 subway line and Xili transportation hub, and reach key planning areas such as Liuxiandong Headquarters Base, Science and Technology Park and Houhai Headquarters Base. In addition, the project is also a double high-speed rail station radiation (Shenzhen North Railway Station, Xili Station).
2, the project landscape is very good, surrounded by mountains and water.
It has nearly 10 million square meters of Tanglang Mountain and about 626,000 square meters of Changlingpi Reservoir.
3. The project is the flagship of the complex with a construction area of about 640,000 square meters.
It integrates high-end apartments, boutique residences, flagship commercial and office to create a 24-hour full-format value chain, which is the preferred choice for business enterprise elites.
4, the project comes with a concentrated business of 37,000 square meters, the following picture is the effect of the Kingkey Royal King's Phoenix commercial, now go to the scene to see, the façade has come out, Taoge feels a bit similar to the KK0NE of the Kingkey Riverside era, it can be expected that it is another internet red commercial complex, which will attract a large number of citizens around.
Commercial renderings of the project
4. Liuxiandong Headquarters Base + Xili High-speed Rail New City + Xili Lake International Science and Education City have inserted wings for the industrial development of the entire Xili, and there is still a lot of imagination space for the value of the area in the medium and long term.
It is reported that the apartment products of Kingkey Yujingfeng are currently only a small number of high-area listings, which are 116㎡ three-bedroom and 158㎡ four-bedroom units, and are fully furnished buildings, the remaining seats are decreasing, and interested friends should start in time.
(This article only represents the personal views of "Wenjie Taolou" and Taoge, and does not constitute specific investment and house buying advice, the property market is risky, and investment must be cautious.) ）